Full year 2019 results and launch of a balance sheet strengthening plan to support execution of strategy

Commenting on these results, Philippe Crouzet, Chairman of the Management Board, said:

“2019 performance marked a decisive step in Vallourec’s turnaround with EBITDA more than doubling and Free cash flow considerably improving.

On the Oil & Gas market, as expected, the lower activity in US onshore was more than offset by EA-MEA Oil & Gas activity and the first step in the recovery of deep offshore in Brazil took place in Q4. In the Industry and Other markets, our revenue growth was mainly driven by higher iron ore volume and prices in Brazil.

We continued to implement our Transformation plan leading to a leaner and a more competitive group and I would like to thank all Vallourec’s teams for their continued involvement, which enabled us to achieve such a result. With €141 million gross cost savings achieved in 2019, we notably outperformed our targets with €586 million gross cost savings since 2016. Our top line growth and commercial momentum evidence the benefits of a reshaped industrial footprint and the successful implementation of new routes in Brazil and China. We continued downsizing our footprint in Europe and enhancing our cost competitiveness and sourcing flexibility.

With streamlined and more competitive operations, Vallourec is entering a new phase of its development and I am confident in the Group's future success under the leadership of Edouard Guinotte.”

Edouard Guinotte, Newly Appointed Chairman of the Management Board as of March 16^th 2020, said:
“The strong dynamic resulting from our restored competitiveness should continue in 2020, supported by the ongoing recovery of EA-MEA markets and by higher O&G sales in Brazil on which we have strong visibility. We expect Vallourec’s financial performance to continue to improve with a €500 million targeted EBITDA and a slightly positive Free cash flow.
Beyond 2020, we will continue to accelerate our profitable revenue growth, capitalizing on strong positions on the most attractive and fast-growing Oil & Gas markets. We will also leverage our technological edge and brand recognition in order to develop new products and solutions for our clients. Our core capabilities also ideally position the Group to capture emerging opportunities for energy transition. We will also further enhance our competitiveness with additional €200 million in gross savings over 2021-2022 and increased utilization of our new supply routes.
In this context, we intend to strengthen Vallourec’s balance sheet and extend our liquidity through a €800 million capital increase and new credit facilities of €800 million that will provide us with the financial flexibility to execute our strategy.
With restored competitiveness and a strengthened balance sheet, I am convinced that we will succeed in reinforcing our position as a world leader in premium tubular solutions and I am committed to taking Vallourec to the next level.”

I - CONSOLIDATED REVENUE BY MARKET

In 2019, Group revenue amounted to €4,173 million, up 6.4% versus 2018 (+5% at constant exchange rates), with EA-MEA Oil & Gas as main contributor. Volume effect was –3.1%, price/mix effect +7.7% and currency effect +1.8%.   

Q4 2019 revenue amounted to €1,004 million, down 10% compared with Q4 2018 (-10% at constant exchange rates) with:

• Volume effect of -25.1%, mainly due to lower deliveries in North America further to the market slowdown and temporary destocking from distributors, and to lower deliveries of low-end pipes.
• Positive price/mix effect of +14.7% driven by Oil & Gas in EA-MEA and South America.
• Currency effect of +0.3%.

Oil & Gas, Petrochemicals (73% of annual consolidated revenue)

In 2019, Oil & Gas revenue totaled €2,752 million, an increase of 11% year-on-year (+8% at constant exchange rates).

• In EA-MEA, Oil & Gas revenue increased significantly fueled by volumes and price/mix.  
• In North America, Oil & Gas revenue increased slightly year-on-year, with H1 performance offsetting H2 onshore market slowdown and destocking from distributors.
• In South America, Oil & Gas revenue was down year on year while Q4 witnessed a restart in the Brazilian offshore market.

In Q4 2019, Oil & Gas revenue amounted to €686 million, down 7% year-on-year (-8% at constant exchange rates).

• In EA-MEA, Oil & Gas revenue decreased moderately mainly due to lower deliveries of low-end pipes.
• In North America, Oil & Gas revenue decreased due to lower volumes and prices, driven by the onshore market slowdown aggravated by a temporary destocking from distributors.
• In South America, Oil & Gas revenue was significantly higher, reflecting the first step of increased drilling activity for exploration in the Brazilian offshore market.

In 2019, Petrochemicals revenue totaled €290 million, down 16% year-on-year (-18% at constant exchange rates), due to the decrease in volumes sold in North America.

In Q4 2019, Petrochemicals revenue amounted to €76 million, down 10% year-on-year (-10% at constant exchange rates), mainly due to lower volumes sold in North America.

Industry & Other (22% of annual consolidated revenue)

In 2019, Industry & Other revenue totaled €939 million, up 15% year-on-year (+16% at constant exchange rates)

• In Brazil, higher revenue from iron ore was driven by an increase in volumes sold (6.2 million tons produced in 2019 or +32% compared to 2018) as a result of productivity improvements, and from higher iron ore prices. Lower revenue was recorded in the Industry market.
• In Europe, Industry revenue (Mechanical, Automotive, Construction) was down, in a challenging market environment.

Q4 2019 revenue amounted to €205 million decreasing by 13% compared with Q4 2018 (-10.4% at constant exchange rates). Revenue and volumes decreased in Europe, partially offset by higher iron ore sales in Brazil.

Power Generation (5% of annual consolidated revenue)

In 2019, revenue totaled €192 million, down 34% year-on-year (-34% at constant exchange rates), due to the decline in global demand for coal-fired conventional power plants.

In Q4 2019, Power Generation revenue amounted to €37 million, an anticipated decrease compared to Q4 2018 of 38% at constant exchange rates.

II - CONSOLIDATED RESULTS ANALYSIS

FY 2019 consolidated results analysis
For the full year 2019, EBITDA reached €347 million, improving by €197 million year-on-year, as a result of:

• 2.9 p.p improvement in industrial margin to €738 million, up €159 million compared to FY 2018, mainly driven by higher price/mix in Oil & Gas in EA-MEA. Together with a higher contribution from the iron ore mine and costs savings, it largely offsetted the lower contribution from North America.
• 7% decrease in sales, general and administrative costs (SG&A) to reach (€378) million, representing 9.1% of revenue compared with 10.3% for the FY 2018.

A net decrease in provisions of €21 million (versus €56 million in 2018) was included in EBITDA, mainly reflecting provisions released to offset losses recorded on the sale of depreciated inventories over the same period.

IFRS 16 impact on EBITDA for the full year was a positive €33 million.

Operating result was (€17) million, improving by +€260 million year-on-year thanks to:

• A higher EBITDA.
• Lower impairment charges at (€30) million in 2019 versus (€53) million in 2018. 2019 charges were mainly related to an asset dedicated to nuclear activity in China.
• Lower charges for “assets disposal, restructuring and other” at (€27) million, reduced by €47 million versus 2018. 2019 charges mainly reflected the decision to close the Reisholz Powergen plant in Germany.
• “Amortization and other depreciation” at (€58) million, of which (€27) million was due to the impact of IFRS 16 (depreciation of right-of-use).

Financial result was negative at (€244) million, compared to (€220) million for the full year 2018, mainly due to (i) higher interest expenses, (ii) the IFRS 16 impact on interest expenses on lease debt for (€11) million, (iii) partly offset by a decrease in foreign exchange hedging costs.

Income tax amounted to (€75) million mainly in Brazil.

As a result, net loss, Group share, has been reduced by €164 million, amounting to (€338) million, compared to (€502) million for the full year of 2018.

Q4 2019 consolidated results analysis
In Q4 2019, EBITDA reached €94 million, improving by 6% year-on-year with:

• Industrial margin of €180 million (17.9% of revenues), slightly down (0.6 p.p.) compared to Q4 2018 (18.5%), due to lower contribution from North America. This has been partly compensated by the increased margin from South America, reflecting higher contribution from Oil & Gas in Brazil and from the iron ore mine.
• Sales, general and administrative costs (SG&A) at (€87) million, down (18%), representing 8.7% of revenue compared with 9.5% in Q4 2018 and reflecting tight cost control.

A net decrease in provisions of €19 million (versus €27 million in 2018) was included in EBITDA, mainly reflecting provisions released to offset losses recorded on the sale of depreciated inventories over the same period.

IFRS 16 impact on Q4 EBITDA was a positive €8 million.

Operating result improved by €34 million to (€9) million, thanks to a higher EBITDA and including a charge for “assets disposal, restructuring and other” at (€23) million, mainly reflecting the decision to close Reisholz Powergen plant in Germany. A (€7) million IFRS 16 impact (depreciation of right-of-use) was included in “amortization and other depreciation” which amounted to (€14) million in Q4 2019 compared to (€8) million in Q4 2018.

Financial result slightly deteriorated at (€66) million versus (€55) million in Q4 2018, due to a (€3) million negative IFRS 16 impact (interest expenses on lease debt) and higher interest expenses.

Income tax was (€36) million in Q4 2019, mainly related to tax charges in Brazil.

As a result, net loss, Group share, slightly increased by (€8) million, amounting to (€111) million, compared to (€103) million in Q4 2018.

III – CASH FLOW & FINANCIAL POSITION

Cash flow from operating activities

Cash flow from operating activities stood at (€6) million for the full year 2019 compared to (€210) million for the full year 2018 and at (€14) million in Q4 2019 compared to (€13) million in Q4 2018.

Operating working capital requirement
For the full year 2019, operating working capital requirement decreased by €124 million, versus an increase of (€155) million for the full year 2018. In line with our objectives, on a quarterly average basis over the full year 2019, net working capital requirement was reduced to 106 days of sales from 113 days in 2018.

In Q4 2019, operating working capital requirement decreased by €170 million versus a decrease of €154 million in Q4 2018. Net working capital in days of sales stood at 95 days at the end of Q4 2019, a similar level compared to Q4 2018 (94 days of sales).

Capex
Gross Capital expenditure was (€159) million for the full year 2019 versus (€129) million for the full year 2018 and stood at (€80) million in Q4 2019 versus (€65) million in Q4 2018.

Free cash flow
Free cash flow for the full year of 2019 was negative at (€41) million, an improvement of €453 million compared to (€494) million for the full year of 2018.

In Q4 2019 the Group generated a positive Free cash flow of €76 million, stable versus Q4 2018.

Net debt and liquidity
As of December 31^st 2019, net debt was reduced to €2,031 million compared with €2,104 million as of September 30^th 2019. It amounted to €1,999 million as of January 1^st 2019. As a reminder, €59 million was reclassified from net debt to lease debt on January 1^st 2019, as a result of the application of IFRS 16 (see table on page 18).   

Cash as of December 31^st 2019 amounted to €1,794 million, and €426 million out of the Group’s €2,128 million committed bank facilities were unused. 

As of the same date, long-term debt amounted to €1,747 million and short-term debt to €2,077 million, including €110 million of commercial paper and €1,702 million drawn from the €2,128 million committed banking facilities.   

As of December 31^st 2019, the banking covenant ratio, as defined in the banking contracts and tested once a year on December 31^st, stood at 81%. IFRS 16 implementation has no impact on the banking covenant ratio.

IV – RECENT ESG AWARDS

Reflecting its strong ESG commitments, Vallourec obtained very favorable rankings by environmental rating agencies in 2019:

• CDP (Carbon Disclosure Program) included Vallourec in the “A List” for carbon management, ranking the Group among the 2% best performers worldwide.
• MSCI upgraded Vallourec to “AA” reflecting successful achievements.
• Sustainalytics ranked Vallourec among the top 15 best performing companies in the “Oil & Gas Equipment sector” (116 peers).

             
A committee of the Supervisory Board dedicated to monitor ESG matters was formed in February 2019.

V – A SUCCESSFULLY EXECUTED TRANSFORMATION PLAN LEADING TO A LEANER AND MORE COMPETITIVE GROUP

Announced cost savings target overachieved
The initial 2016-2020 gross cost savings target of €400 million was surpassed in 2018 with €445 million achieved and the €200 million additional savings plan for 2019-2020 will also be overachieved with €141 million savings realized in 2019.

Since 2014, total headcount has been reduced by 21% to 18,827 at end of 2019, a reduction of 35% in Europe and of 19% in Brazil.

In 2019, Group headcount was reduced by 1.8%, from 19,164 employees to 18,827, with a stronger reduction in Europe (-6.3%). In Germany, headcount was reduced in 2019 by 392 employees as a result of the initiatives announced in February 2019 targeting a reduction of 600 by the end of 2020.

As a result of these measures and the deployment of new routes, manufacturing⁶ and SG&A costs per ton have been reduced by c.40% since 2016 to €1,035/t.

Radical downsizing of our European footprint
Vallourec’s European industrial footprint has been radically downsized with a reduction from 19 sites in France and Germany to 2 main production hubs. Europe has now been set up as a center of excellence for advanced premium products, serving local markets competitively while providing a flexible production route with a short lead-time for exports.

In 2019, the Group decided to close its Reisholz mill (Germany), which specialized in tubes for conventional power plants. The closure is expected to be effective in the second half of 2020.

Successful deployment of new competitive routes
New supply routes have been deployed leveraging cost-competitive production hubs in Brazil and Asia.

Brazilian operations have been rationalized and significant savings realized. Exports now represent approximately 60% of VSB’s total production.

Tianda, acquired at the end of 2016, has been fully integrated within Vallourec’s global network. The share of premium volume rolled in Tianda has increased from 4% in 2017 to 20% in 2019 and Tianda products are offered in recently awarded contracts in the Middle East and North Africa.

The utilization rate of new routes for premium Oil & Gas EA-MEA demand has increased from 19% in 2015 to 55% in 2019, resulting in an increase in premium products exported from VSB and Tianda from 40kt in 2015 to c.300kt in 2019.

A leaner, state of the art and flexible industrial set up
The cost savings, the rationalization of the industrial footprint with the share of Europe in total capacity down to 25% from 45% and the deployment of new routes have led to a significant decrease in the break-even point⁷ by 25% since 2017.

At the same time, commercial agility has considerably improved thanks to a flexible sourcing from highly competitive production hubs in Brazil and Asia.

Restored competitiveness already translating into accelerating commercial momentum
The €900 million mega-contract recently awarded by ADNOC testifies to Vallourec’s ability to offer competitive global solutions to clients supported by innovative digital services. Vallourec will deliver a comprehensive range of products from API to high-end premium products supplied from Europe, Brazil and China, for both onshore and offshore drilling and conventional and complex wells.

After doubling between 2017 and 2018, Vallourec’s OCTG tender hit ratio in EA-MEA⁸ continued to improve in 2019 thanks to the utilization of the new routes.

In Brazil, we have signed agreements with Petrobras and other large customers such as Shell and TechnipFMC, demonstrating our positioning as supplier of choice.

VI – STRATEGIC ROADMAP TO TAKE VALLOUREC TO THE NEXT LEVEL

Leverage supportive market fundamentals and strong positions in the most attractive markets

• In Brazil, Vallourec benefits from a highly competitive position with expertise in what is expected to be the fastest-growing offshore market in the coming years. The Group is a supplier of choice by Petrobras and the IOCs operating in Brazil.
• Vallourec’s iron ore mine in Brazil has a best-in-class cost positioning and its annual production capacity will be expanded by 3Mt to maximize EBITDA generation. The corresponding capex of €65 million over 2020-2021 has a pay-back of c.2.5 years.
• In EA-MEA, Vallourec will leverage its renewed competitiveness in a market driven by a restart of final investment decisions with a significant offshore component. The strength of Vallourec’s positioning is confirmed by bookings up 16% in 2019.
• In North America, Vallourec owns a fully integrated local platform with flexible operations enabling the Group to adapt to a volatile market that is now stabilizing.

Capitalize on technological edge and brand recognition to develop new products and solutions

The Group also intends to capture incremental revenues by leveraging its technological edge and brand recognition to develop new products and solutions.

New VAM® connections for premium O&G markets have already been rapidly adopted by clients across the globe.

New digital solutions, including digital (Smartengo) are already on the market and contribute to Vallourec commercial differentiation.

Leverage core capabilities to capture emerging opportunities from energy transition
The Group is preparing for the future by developing sustainable solutions around energy transition opportunities in the following areas: geothermal, offshore wind, carbon capture utilization and storage (“CCUS”) and hydrogen.

The Group will leverage its industrial expertise, design capabilities, engineering know-how and relationships with customers at the forefront of the energy transition to capture those opportunities.

Vallourec has set up a dedicated organization to drive innovation projects related to energy transition and expects those opportunities to result in significant revenue by 2025.

Launch Acceleration program to reinforce competitiveness
The Group is committed to further developing its competitiveness with a new program, Acceleration, targeting additional gross savings of €200 million over 2021-2022, through both transverse and regional initiatives. 

Transverse initiatives will focus on strengthening industrial excellence to boost performance and reliability and increasing the efficiency of support functions and SG&A.

Regional initiatives will encompass the following:

• In Europe: the Group will benefit from the full year impact of the German savings plan, with « One mill » concept implementation, and Reisholz mill closure in H2 2020 (additional headcount reduction of c.200 employees). The Group will also implement further product portfolio optimization measures and reinternalize some outsourced services.
• In Brazil, the Group will continue to improve the Jeceaba site and develop the new « Mini-mill » program on its Barreiro site.
• In North America, the Group will upgrade performance of maintenance, debottleneck its finishing operations and reinternalize some outsourced services.

Allocate all demand increase for premium O&G in EAMEA to new routes
Following the successful ramp up of premium O&G EA-MEA volumes supplied by Brazil and Asia from c.40kt in 2015 to c.300 kt in 2019, Vallourec intends to further leverage the competitive advantage offered by these new routes. Future Oil & Gas growth in EA-MEA will be essentially served by the new routes, corresponding to volume growth from c.300 kt to c.500 kt in 2024.

This ambition will be enabled by the completion of the industrialization plan for premium grades in Tianda and by the certifications by Majors and NOCs of Tianda and VSB. The premium production ratio of Tianda will also increase from 20% in 2019 to c.40% in 2024.

VII – 2020 MAIN MARKET TRENDS

Oil & Gas

• EA-MEA enters 2020 with a solid backlog, resulting from increased bookings recorded in 2019, including notably for high alloy products which benefit from the attractive tight market situation.
   
• In North America, although operators are maintaining capex discipline, we expect a rebound in volumes in line with consumption in Q1 2020 after the strong destocking in Q4 2019, to be followed by a recovery in prices, which should bottom out in Q1 2020. The Group believes there could be an opportunity for market share gains following the local OCTG industry consolidation.
   
• In South America the number of drilled wells is forecasted to significantly increase in Brazil driven by the exploratory drilling activities of Petrobras and IOCs. Deliveries of premium OCTG are expected to sharply rise starting in Q2.

Industry & Other

• In Europe, demand and prices are expected to remain low, particularly in Germany.
• In Brazil, we target to reach production levels at our iron ore mine in line with 2019 levels, while iron prices have slightly decreased and remain dependent on China’s imports.

Coronavirus epidemic

•       The economic and financial fallout from the coronavirus epidemic in China, where Vallourec operates, is not foreseeable at this time. Following a Chinese New Year vacation shutdown extended by one week, our Chinese mills reopened on February 10^th.
   

VIII – OUTLOOK

2020 guidance

Based on current economic and market trends^9, the Group targets for 2020:

• An EBITDA of €500 million
• A slightly positive Free cash flow
  • Capex of €200 million
  • A net working capital requirement reduction to c.100 days of sales on an average quarterly basis

The quarterly phasing of EBITDA and Free cash flow will reflect the usual low seasonality in Q1. The second half of the year will be significantly stronger than the first half in terms of EBITDA and Free cash flow generation.
            

Beyond 2020 cash flow generation levers
EBITDA is expected to grow as a result of topline growth reflecting supportive trends and improved commercial competitiveness as well as further cost reduction with the implementation of the Acceleration program.

In addition to EBITDA growth, Free cash flow generation will also be enhanced by:

• An annualized c.€50 million reduction in interest charges compared to 2019 resulting from:
  • c.€25 million from the combined Rights Issue and RCF refinancing
  • c.€25 million from exercise of call option on a lease contract in Brazil, with an additional positive €6-8m impact on EBITDA
• Reduced restructuring charges
• Further working capital reduction in days of sales
• Contained capex within a €200-250 million annual envelope

IX – RIGHTS ISSUE AND RCF REFINANCING TO SUPPORT TURNAROUND AND EXECUTION OF VALLOUREC STRATEGY

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