Ich habe den heutigen Kursschub genutzt um Dragon zu verkaufen. M.M.n sind sie zu diesem Kurs fair bewerten und haben nicht mehr sehr viel Potential nach oben. Es ist zur Zeit zu viel Spekulation im Ölpreis und ich denke nicht, dass es so weitergehen wird. In letzter Zeit wurde ja (u.a. von der OPEC) öfter darauf hingewiesen, dass nicht die Fördermenge das Problem ist, sondern die Kapazitäten der Erdölverarbeiter. Vielleicht werde ich sogar noch gegen den Ölpreis spekulieren, aber da gilt es wohl noch abzuwarten.
Außerdem ist Dragon ja wohl auch nicht mehr ganz unbekannt. Wenn man zum Beispiel sieht, dass sich Spezialisten wie TamerB mit "am ballllllllllll bleiben" melden, dann sollten die Alarmleuchten angehen! TamerBs sind es, die am Ende auf der Schlachtbank landen und ihr Geld verliern - da muss ich nicht dabei sein. Weiterhin hat vor Kurzem ein dt. Börsenbrief (hanseatischer Dingsbums) über Dragon berichtet... na dann :o)
Ach ja: Aton hat Dragon auf "halten" gesetzt und das aktuelle Kursziel liegt bei 167pence (aktueller Kurs 190pence). Dazu ist allerdings zu sagen, dass Aton nicht mit einem Ölpreis von 60USD rechnet. Also wer an einen Ölpreis von 80USD glaubt, der kann Dragon auch weiterhin kaufen - ich tue es nicht!
Hier der Bericht von ATON:
Dragon Oil
Reports in line 1H05 IFRS results
Dragon Oil reported 1H05 IFRS results yesterday that were broadly in line with our full year estimates. Revenue of $113mn was up 224% y-o-y, while EBITDA of $90.8mn and net income of $49.6mn were up 303% and 225% respectively, all predictably driven by a 112% y-o-y rise in net output to 14mbpd (19.53mbpd gross) and a 47% increase in the average Brent price to $49.6/bbl.
The 1H05 results were in line with our full year forecasts (revenue of $269mn, operating income of $198mn and net income of $178mn), as much stronger oil prices in 2H05 (Brent $61.4/bbl in 3Q05 compared to $49.6/bbl in 1H05) and higher production volumes should see 2H05 revenues and profits rise well above 1H05’s levels.
The average sales price per barrel in 1H05 was $43.6/bbl, a $6.04/bbl discount to Brent compared to a $2.1/bbl discount in 1H04 as Dragon had to ship more oil through the Baku route (53% of the total vs. 25% in 1H04), which offers a lower netback compared to Iranian swaps. We note that Iran swap costs are booked separately in opex, while on the Baku route the discount includes the implied transportation charge, thus making the headline netback on the Baku route look far less attractive than it is in reality.ššš
Operating costs were marginally higher than expected ($18.8mn in 1H05 vs. $35.3mn expected for the full year), though the divergence was insignificant. While we had expected Dragon to start paying income taxes later in 2005, it made a tax provision of $22mn in 1H05 (albeit deferred for the time being), signaling that the tax loss carryforward has been exhausted.š
Dragon was FCF positive in the period, with operating cash flow of $87mn (full year forecast of $217mn) and capex of $51mn (full year forecast of $130mn). Net cash position stood at $162.9mn, including the proceeds of a $156.2mn equity offering and $32.1mn in gross debt. Despite relatively low capex in 1H05, we believe our full 2005 figure is realistic as in 2H05 Dragon in addition to the usual drilling capex will have to fund a substantial part of two large contracts it awarded in 1H05 – for the construction of the brand new LAM A production platform and a new onshore 50mbpd processing facility, both of which are required to achieve Dragon’s medium target of 40mbpd in gross output by 2008-2009.
Dragon also said it would continue conducting work-overs at the existing well stock and drilling new wells at the LAM10 platform, but provided no specific medium-term output guidance. The company said it had brought a total of 4.15mbpd of new initial gross output on stream thus far in 2005, though the fact that Dragon’s 1H05 average daily output was little changed from 2004 exit levels again highlights the relatively sharp production decline curve on Cheleken block wells. We note that our forecast for Dragon’s production volumes in 2005 was recently revised from 23.5mbpd gross to 20.4mbpd gross; 1H05 production numbers and the current outlook seem to support our new lower forecast. The 3-D seismic survey has now been completed and some of the early results have already been used in selecting drilling locations; full interpretation is expected in 1Q06.š
Separately, we note that from Jan. 1, 2005, Dragon raised the long-term oil price it uses for valuing its reserves and calculating depreciation from $25/bbl (Brent) to $30/bbl. We believe this may result in a downward reserves revision at end 2005 as the company’s share in future production and hence reserves has an inverse relationship to the oil price, as determined by the PSA agreement. Last year, the increase in long-term oil price outlook from $18/bbl to $25/bbl resulted in an 11% drop in 2P reserves to 315mn bbls.
To summarize, the results were in line with our full year projections. All profitability metrics met our full year expectations, and production was in line with our reduced forecast; the possible impact from the oil price upgrade on reserves calculation was also expected.
We have fine-tuned our estimates and target price slightly to reflect the 1H04 actuals; most of the downward revision on 2005 net income and to a lesser degree operating cash flow estimates was due to the earlier than expected end of tax loss carry forward.
Our recommendation remains Hold; our new target price is $3.09 (GBP1.67), or 6% below yesterday’s close.
der Tolle
p.s. noch einen schönen Gruß an den Idioten, der Dragon in die Kategorie "HOT-Stocks" geschoben hat.
