ich fürchte, es wird bedeutend schlimmer als in den 70ern - 1980! Warum?
- damals (geo)politisches Ölembargo (als wieder aufgehoben - Öl wieder massenhaft verfügbar; heute Öl- Reservekapazität gegen null (fundamentaler Peak oil +/-).
- damals USA Öl selbstversorger - heute müssen 13 Mio Barrel /d importiert werden
- heute Kreditblase und extrem angewachsene Verschuldung (nicht nur USA!)
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www.kitco.com/ind/Lundin/lundin_jul102008.html
That '70s Show
A slowing economy, spiraling inflation, soaring oil prices and tensions in the Middle East are sparking bad memories of stagflation. Once again, the Fed seems powerless to do anything about it. But at least this time, they’re essentially admitting it.
By this time of year, we should be mired in the midst of a summertime slowdown...and contemplating our frozen cocktails instead of the markets. Instead, we’re confronted by a seemingly endless parade of violent price swings, economic intrigue and political posturing.
It’s not a pretty sight. Yet, as much as I’d like to, I cannot look away.
Yes, these markets might make more sense if we simply channeled Seinfeld. Because, at least in the short term, it’s all about nothing. Record-high energy prices, rising inflation, falling home values and a declining dollar have the politicians railing against so-called "speculators," promising bailouts and generally looking for the next available microphone... all while the Federal Reserve pounds its collective chest over its newfound vigilance toward inflation. But, in the end, they can’t do anything about any of it.
The politicians are being educated, with simple words and big, colorful pictures, as to how the futures markets really work, how they provide vital liquidity to the markets, how overregulation will simply send speculators and their money to offshore exchanges, and how hedge fund donations support their political campaigns.
The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is talking tough...but essentially admitting that it’s in a trick box from which there is no easy escape. Consider, for example, the policy statement accompanying the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent no-action on interest rates. They noted two situations weighing on the economy — tight credit and the housing contraction — that could be best addressed by an accommodative monetary stance. And they noted just one — high energy prices — that could be combated by a tighter monetary policy.
In short, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. The Fed can talk a big anti inflationary game, but it’s precluded from taking substantive action while the economic data remains so weak, while the stock market is balanced on the edge of an abyss, and while national elections loom so close.
It would seem that the markets would be stuck in a holding pattern. And so they were — until the Fed opened its mouth, and investors realized what they were really saying.
More Volatility to Come
Despite gold’s recent reawakening, and despite the many new lines of green on our quote screens, we should still guard against complacency.
Given the huge speculative money flows sloshing around the global markets, we are just one economic data point away from a major downward correction in gold...or a spike higher. The only sure bet is that the road ahead will be rocky.
But regardless of how we get there, I’m confident that the metals — and the mining stocks — will be trading significantly higher by the fall. The dollar, of course, will be the deciding factor. And again, the most likely scenario over the next few months calls for continuing weakness in the greenback, as the odds of Fed rate hikes decline while prospects for euro rate increases rise.
Hopefully, gold will continue its rebound...and the junior mining stocks will start to catch fire once again. If so, our strategy of buying value on sale will pay off in a very big way.
Brien Lundin
June 30, 2008
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