sich derzeit nicht beeilen, bei Öl long zu gehen, denn die Ölnachfrage hat durch die Finanzkrise und mögliche Weltwirtschaftskrise Schlagseite bekommen. Das Ölnachfragewachstum wird schon monatlich nach unten korrigiert, es könnte auch zu dem von hartmut angedeuteten Nachfragerückgang kommen, wenn die emerging markets in Asien, Südamerika und Mittlerer Osten Wirtschaftsprobleme bekommen. Einige OPEC-Mitglieder möchten zwar die Produktion kürzen, um die Preise oben zu halten, aber ob es mit Erfolg gekrönt sein wird, ist fraglich.
Fazit für alle potentiellen Ölinvestoren: Füße stillhalten und abwarten, erst in einigen Monaten (Mitte 2009?) dürfte ein Einstieg bei Öl interessant werden.
hier die Artikel:
"IEA CUTS 2009 OIL DEMAND FORECAST FOR A SECOND MONTH (UPDATE1)
By Grant Smith
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 28 nations, cut its forecast for global oil demand next year by 0.5 percent as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s threatens a global recession.
The IEA lowered its 2009 projection by 440,000 barrels a day to 87.2 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report, citing a weaker economic outlook from the International
Monetary Fund. Non-OPEC supply growth this year has been ``largely wiped out'' after hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and pipeline disruptions in Azerbaijan.
``Demand is looking weaker alongside economic prospects,'' David Fyfe, the head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division, said in a phone interview from Paris. ``There are partly counterbalancing supply-side issues. We've lost a lot of oil as a result of the U.S. hurricanes and what's been happening in the Caucasus and Azerbaijan.''
Oil prices are set for their biggest weekly decline since 2004, as the escalating credit crisis deepens concerns over economic growth and erodes consumer demand for oil products. Futures have fallen about 44 percent since reaching a record $147.27 in New York in July.
The International Monetary Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook on Oct. 8 that the world's most advanced economies will grow at the slowest pace since 1982 next year. Industrial economies will grow 0.5 percent in 2009, down from 1.5 percent this year, according to the Washington-based Fund.
Seventh Reduction
The IEA still expects oil demand to rise by 700,000 barrels a day, or 0.8 percent, in 2009.
The agency reduced its estimate for 2008 for the seventh time this year, leaving a growth rate of 0.5 percent, the lowest since 1993 when consumption grew 0.3 percent. This year's prediction was cut by 240,000 barrels a day, or 0.5 percent, to 86.5 million barrels a day.
Demand growth from outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was left unchanged at 38.4 million barrels a day this year and increased by 40,000 barrels a day to 39.7 million a day in 2009.
``Oil demand growth areas, notably the Middle East and emerging Asia, have yet to show a significant slowdown,'' the report said. ``Even if global economic growth slows down - but short, of course, of global recession - China's oil demand growth can arguably remain in positive territory in the foreseeable future.''
Poland Joins
The IEA's membership increased to 28 countries last month with the admission of Poland.
Supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, will grow 150,000 barrels a day this year to 49.76 million a day, according to the report. That's 120,000 barrels a day less than the agency anticipated last month, following storm damage to Gulf of Mexico installations and outages in Azerbaijan.
Non-OPEC production will increase 660,000 barrels a day to 50.42 million barrels a day next year, according to the report.
``Tightening credit and equity markets will slow the pace of investment with smaller, independent producers and, potentially, several Russian operators seen as particularly at risk,'' the report added. ``A renewed phase of industry consolidation is likely.''
OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, said yesterday it will hold an extraordinary meeting in Vienna on Nov. 18 after the global financial crisis sent crude prices below $90 a barrel.
Angola, Iraq
OPEC pumped 32.25 million barrels a day last month, 330,000 barrels a day less than in August because of unscheduled disruptions in Angola, Iraq and Nigeria, according to IEA estimates.
The organization will need to provide about 30.9 million barrels a day next year to balance world supply and demand, the report showed. That's about 200,000 barrels a day less than it estimated last month. This so-called ``call on OPEC crude'' was likewise trimmed for this year, by 100,000 barrels a day to 31.8 million a day."
"OIL DEMAND GROWTH HEADS TO 15-YR LOW ON FINCL WOES
October 10, 2008, 1:24 P.M. Et
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The International Energy Agency on Friday warned that global oil demand this year is on course to register its weakest growth in 15 years and is likely to log similarly anemic growth in 2009 as the world's financial woes eat away at economic activity.
The Paris-based agency, in its monthly oil market report, said world consumption this year is seen rising by just 0.5%, or 400,000 barrels a day, the slowest rate since 1993, and by just 0.8% next year.
Total demand this year is forecast to average 86.51 million barrels a day, though that number is likely to be revised lower. Like the industry in general, the IEA has cut its 2008 world demand forecast in nearly every monthly report this year due to the fallout from the world's financial problems.
Despite this easing of demand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should maintain current production levels, said Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's chief.
OPEC is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting Nov. 18 in Vienna to determine whether it needs to make additional cuts to oil output to stem the 40% slide in prices from July all-time highs.
Even though demand growth was seen flagging, plans for new production may have to be shelved due to the credit crisis, meaning that supplies may decline without OPEC taking any action.
"We have revised downward demand," Tanaka said. "We have to revise downward also the supply side because of the slowdown of the projects and slippage in the project and decline rate."
Crude oil futures were trading at about $80 a barrel after hitting a year low intraday of $78.61 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The IEA, energy adviser to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, also warned that the ongoing financial crisis is hurting oil exploration projects, a worrying sign for the future because the world's spare pumping capacity remains at historically low levels of just 2 million barrels a day.
"Credit shortages are rapidly becoming yet another in a long line of impediments to (oil) industry investment," particularly in Russia and the Caspian region in Central Asia, the agency said.
The IEA said U.S., European and Japanese oil demand, which account for 56% of world oil consumption, is expected to contract 2.2%, or 1.1 million barrels a day, this year, and fall 1.3% next year.
The agency reduced its 2008 global oil demand growth forecast by 250,000 barrels and its 2009 outlook by 190,000 barrels a day from its report last month.
But a number of analysts say the IEA is merely playing catch-up to industry forecasts that have long been more pessimistic about the health of world crude demand.
Analysts at Sanford Bernstein have been among the most critical of the IEA's forecasts, calling them recently "inept" and "barely worth the paper they are written on." Bernstein thinks global oil demand is already negative, not lingering just above positive territory, as the IEA believes.
The agency says it adjusts its forecasts after organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and OECD update their economic projections. The IMF this week reduced its 2008 global economic growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.1% this summer and is seen cutting its 2009 forecast to just 3% from 3.9%.
Despite increasing concern among oil analysts, the IEA remains fairly optimistic about emerging market demand, which is accounting for most of the growth in oil consumption. The agency kept its forecast basically unchanged for China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the U.S., projecting oil demand growth of 6% this year and 5.2% in 2009 in the country.
The IEA said non-OPEC producers are now expected to log supply growth of just 150,000 barrels a day this year, down from original expectations for growth of around 1 million barrels a day."
"OPEC MAY `TEAR APART' IF SAUDIS SHUN SUPPLY CUT, BERNSTEIN SAYS
By Stephen Voss
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC divisions could ``tear the organization apart'' as its biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, pursues a more moderate course than other members calling for supply cuts to revive oil prices, a London analyst said.
``Saudi Arabia has not joined the OPEC hawks, led by Venezuela and Iran, in calling for another supply cut, and we think we could be witnessing the beginning of the end for the organization,'' Neil McMahon, a London-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., wrote in a report today.
OPEC announced yesterday it would hold an extraordinary meeting on Nov. 18 as the worsening credit crunch threatens to restrain economic growth and curtail energy demand. Oil has slumped 47 percent from a July record to trade near $78 a barrel today.
OPEC President and Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil and Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., have both said OPEC needs to cut production to stem the price slump.
``As the only country likely to have any real influence on supply within OPEC in the near and longer term, the Saudis are the key to the future existence of OPEC,'' the report said.
``However, we do not necessarily think that Saudi wants to cut, as a falling oil price should contain the amount of demand destruction, and secondly if Saudi cuts its share, will the hawks actually cut theirs?,'' Bernstein said.
Without a concerted OPEC effort to reduce supply, prices are likely to drift to the marginal cost of $75 to $80 a barrel, or $60 to $70, when adjusting for a recession and lower service company costs, according to McMahon.
``Such an outcome would likely create an untenable situation within OPEC and the potential for the organization to cease to work as one body,'' he wrote."
Zurück
