Einige Fakten von Profis
S&P Rating vom 26.8.
Auszug
We expect Vonovia’s credit metrics will remain consistent with the current ‘BBB+’ ratings, despite our conservative assumptions.
Debt to debt plus equity (54.9% as of June 30, 2022) and debt to EBITDA (20.2x) should remain at about 55% and 19x-20x in 2022-
2023, respectively. This is mainly thanks to asset disposals--€3 billion assumed in 2022, followed by €400 million in recurring sales in
2023--and flat asset revaluations. We believe these levels are consistent with our 'BBB+' ratio requirements, such as debt to debt
plus equity below 60%. Upside still hinges on Vonovia sustainably restoring debt to debt and equity below 55% and debt to
annualized EBITDA to 15x-17x. Assuming Vonovia refinances its upcoming debt maturities at 3.3% (equivalent to its current five-year
yield to worst), its EBITDA to interest ratio (4.5x as of June 30, 2022, rolling 12 months) would still remain at about 3x, which is
acceptable at the current rating level.
Vonovia’s liquidity needs remain manageable. The company has enough liquidity to cover more than a year of needs, with a multiple
of 1.5x for the next 12 months. In particular, it had about €5.0 billion of cash and available revolving credit facility (RCF) as of June 30,
2022, backing its €2.6 billion of short-term debt maturities. Moreover, the company has the potential to raise €8 billion of additional
secured debt while remaining compliant with its bond covenants and our thresholds for equalizing the issue rating with the issuer
credit rating.
Outlook
The positive outlook indicates that we could upgrade Vonovia if it decreases debt leverage further than we currently expect over the
next 12-18 months, as a result of more asset disposals, equity, or revaluation uplifts, for example. It also reflects that we expect
Vonovia will limit acquisitions to comply with its publicly stated financial policy (with a reported LTV of 40%-45%, comparable with
adjusted debt to debt plus equity of 50%-55%). We believe the group will continue to generate robust and stable cash flow while
maintaining access to debt funding, supported by strong demand for affordable housing in Germany and its strong credit reputation.
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