Xilinx does not provide forward guidance while awaiting the merger, but it is an easy assumption that sales of AMD and XLNX combined will surpass $5B in Q3. Lisa Su has made a habit of guiding conservatively. The range for Q2 was supposed to be $3.5B to $3.7B, but came in at $3.85B. Guidance for Q3 is $4.0B to $4.2B, so I would assume it will be at least $4.25B, possibly higher depending on the mix. Add in roughly $900M in sales from XLNX, and that gets you to $5.15B with combined 52% gross margins and $0.69 EPS on 1.65B shares outstanding... with revenues growing at 44%+ YoY. Balance sheet will also look great with about $7B in cash and less than $2B in long term debt.
But Q1 2022 is when things really get rolling. By then, manufacturing capacity at TSMC should be significantly greater with new fabs coming online, and royalties from Samsung will also kick in. EPS of at least $1.10 on sales over $7B is not at all farfetched. That would be growth of over 100% on both the top and bottom lines. It's hard to know what kind of multiple the market would assign to that kind of explosive growth, but it should put AMD within reach of the likes of AMZN, TSLA, and NVDA. A multiple of 62.5 would send the SP to $275. It could happen!
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