in dem aktuell neuesten Artikel eines Analysten wird das Thema Erstattung für EXAS (Siegesmeldungen) relativiert. Dazu mein Beitrag an einen User, der ebenfalls skeptisch ist.
PSalerno
Truth to be said, this article was published on Tusday before market opening when the stock closed around 21.50. He probably shorted Monday around 22, I tried to short buying puts , but my order was unable, if filled I would have covered after 24 hours. The short was well timed from a technical and valuation point of view as EXAS went below 20 and yesterday closed around that level. The only point where I disagree is when he says the forecast made by the analysts are too high. Here I agree with SBull and think the numbers will be higher. Conversely the forecasts made by the bulls publishing on SA and commenting here are too high. There is no way for EXAS to make 4 Million tests every year in the foreseeable future. I destroyed the bull thesis made by Harvey Gillis, Spano and others here with a 200 target and 10-14B revenue, but also the bear thesis made by Tilson.
The author is absolutely correct that insurance companies cannot be forced to pay Cologuard if other tests have the same efficacy, at least not always. There is no specific A rating for Cologuard. The stock price can go higher or lower depending on news flow, but the company is far from being profitable, there is a stock dilution going on, it is good for trading not for long term investing, as many things good or bad can happen.
Meine Antwort
@ PSalerno
hm, I also have a question: The analysts in the article above did a request to Blue Cross whether the insurance company would reimburse the test. So obviously Blue Cross has a lot of pre-conditions, i.e. :
- the patient should not have had a FIT within the last 3 years or
- FOBT within 1 year or
- colonoscopy within 10 years.
This is indeed understandable, since no insurance company wants to pay an 18 fold price for a stool test that is basically delivering the same result (92% for Cologuard vs 68% sensitivity of FIT is better, off course)
that means basically that Blue Cross will not reimburse Cologuard if the patient is up to date in CRC screening, right?
This again means that the market for EXAS is restricted the unscreened or the patients who are willing to pay 549.00 $ out of their own pocket (which is a minor group).
So the target group is the same as of Epigenomcis. So we have a stool test and a blood test in a market of 32 mln. US Americans (the unscreened and unwilling). Since years compliance for screening remains between 65-68%, since people refused any of the offered screening methods, naming stool tests and colonoscopy, etc I don't know how the blood test works out. Either it is a game changer or not.
Cologuard costs 549.00, Epi ProColon app. 349.00 (i.e. at the moment in Arizona). EXAS has big overheads for marketing and sales, cost of its own Lab, performing the test by itself.
Epigenomcis has a CLIA test that can be performed in all U.S. labs and no sales structure as it relies on Polymedco and Labcorp with big sales teams.
That is why I also would be short or at least in a trading mood on EXAS.