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- erstmals seit 2009...
Jon Markman's Speculations
June 10, 2010, 12:11 p.m. EDT
Commentary: Economic predictor set to turn negative, spook market
By Jon Markman
SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- The most prescient statistical guide to the health of the U.S. economy is set to turn negative on Friday for the first time since early 2009, an event that is going to spook super-bulls and give comfort to super-bears.
But the keeper of the measure's flame says both sets of extreme views will be unwarranted, as it only means growth is about to slow noticeably -- not collapse.
The gauge is called the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, and for the past five decades it has been one of the few products of economic research that has risen above the level of tarot cards and necromancy.
While not considered mainstream due to its reliance on non-linear math to predict cycle turns rather than on regression formulas that extrapolate the past, the WLI has nevertheless forged an enviable reputation for accurately calling recessions and recoveries well in advance.
In mid-2007, the WLI forecast the 2008 recession when most economists and investors were still seeing blue skies ahead. In late 2008 it surprisingly forecast a u-turn higher into recovery amid the depths of the global financial crisis. The WLI accurately retained its positive posture for a year, garnering criticism from bears all the way, before peaking and rolling over last winter again.
Now the flip downward that began in November 2009 is about to swing all the way down into negative territory. So I called up Economic Cycle Research Institute chief Lakshman Achuthan in New York to find out what this means.
Achuthan, who's always quick with the metaphors, says that an economy recovering from a recession is like a jet aircraft, which logs its strongest acceleration when taking off -- defying the forces of gravity and pointing toward its maximum expected altitude.
Once it's at 30,000 feet, a plane levels off and stops accelerating. But it doesn't fall, it just cruises.
"You wouldn't want your plane to accelerate throughout its flight," Achuthan said. "It would blow up or burn through all its fuel before getting anywhere."
The business cycle expert says the WLI's steep decline of the past two months so far only suggests that U.S. GDP growth has peaked for this cycle, so there won't be any quarters in the recovery that rise at more than 5%. And while it does not forecast a peak in employment growth yet, the fact that the WLI is rolling over now suggests job growth will peak in late summer. Though forecasts like this are always messy, if they're accurate they should help government and business leaders determine the best policy remedies now, rather than waiting to witness it occur later.
Slowdown or recession?
The big question now is not whether a slowdown lies ahead but whether it will turn into a recession. The WLI's current condition says the answer is not knowable yet, and won't be known for a few months because while the downturn so far is pronounced it is not yet persistent.
There is still time for policy makers to roll out new forms of legislated stimulus that could blunt the effects of a nascent downturn in commodity prices, consumer sentiment and mortgage applications -- just as there was in early 2008, at a similar juncture, before tax refunds were doled out too late to prevent recession.
So how would the downturn affect stock prices? Lakshman says that equity markets tend to halt their own fast-paced recoveries from downturns a few months after WLI growth tops out. WLI growth peaked in October, so the April peak in stocks was right on time. The next phase should be a desultory decline or march sideways as corporate profit growth peaks and softens from current super-strong levels.
The good news is that for now, at least, the recovery continues to roll at a pretty good clip. ISI Group reports that its company surveys continue to show a powerful, broad-based surge in the economy that has not been as hampered by lack of employment growth as you might imagine.
Here's a quick list of positives and negatives, provided by ISI, to ponder until next time:
* Positives: The yield curve is positive (cheap profits for banks); short-term interest rates are zero; profits have increased 31% year over year and corporate balance sheets are strong; household employment over the past five months is up 1.3 million, or a positive 2.4% annualized rate (not including the Census hiring); hours worked in the past seven months are up at a 3.7% annualized rate; employment is projected to keep rising over the next 12 months; vehicle sales and housing starts have room to move higher; inventories are very lean.
* Negatives: The euro zone economy is likely to enter another recession later this year, China's real GDP growth will slow to 7.5%, U.S. tax rates are headed up, U.S. and state budget cuts and tax rates are likely, the oil spill will persist in reduced profits in the Gulf region; Israel and Turkey are fighting; European auto and retail sales are collapsing; Japan's political establishment is as stable as tofu; credit spreads are blowing out in Spain; and uncertainty about the U.S. economy is so great that a survey of a small group of fund managers last week found a range of opinion about 2011 unemployment from 6.5% to 14%.
Add it all up, and ISI expects a 3% to 3.5% GDP growth rate in the U.S over the next year, which is consistent with the idea of what Achuthan called "cruising speed." It's not a great cruising speed, as 4% was seen in the mid-1990s, but it's enough to support corporate earnings growth of 12% from smart, steady companies like medical waste disposal specialist Stericycle Inc. (NASDAQ:SRCL) , an old favorite of last decade that ought to find renewed popularity now.
The bottom line is that as the economy slows, the sharp, robust, exciting advance in the broad range of stocks seen from March 2009 to April 2010 is probably over. And even if equities recover from the recent troubles, the next stage will be much more muted.
This does not mean that you can't make money in stocks this year. It only means you'll have to be more nimble, willing to go short as appropriate, and depend more on dividends and fixed income.
Looking out over the horizon using his longer-term leading indexes, Achuthan sees a "strong chance" of more frequent recessions in the coming decade than at any time since the 1970s.
If that occurs, then he points out there will be major constraints on politicians' counter-cyclical response that did not exist in 2008. That's because the next recession will begin with unemployment not at 4.5%, as the last one did, but in the high 8% range. Also policy makers won't be able to cut rates as they are likely to still be near zero, and fiscal spending will be a problem due to all of the borrowed stimulus already fired off.
A lot of people are going to wonder, Achuthan says, how this could happen again so soon after the last crisis. And he points out that the "great moderation" in economic growth from 1985 to 2007 -- when recessions seem to have been ironed out of the system -- is over. That was an anomaly. The new reality will be a return to sharp cyclicality with a vengeance that will prove less and less susceptible to gentle prods from policy makers, like antibiotic-resistant viruses.
Since Europe, Australia and Japan have already flipped to the dark side, one way to play this at home with ETFs would be a portfolio that is 40% short the EAFE region, 30% long U.S. defensive sectors, like consumer staples; and 30% bonds. The best short EAFE fund -- which covers developed markets in Asia and Europe -- if you are so inclined, is ProShares Short EAFE (CONSOLIDATED:EFZ) .
Jon Markman is a money manager and investment adviser in Seattle. He owns EFZ shares. For more ideas, try a two-week trial to Markman's newsletter, Strategic Advantage , published in partnership with MarketWatch.
www.marketwatch.com/story/story/...0498-4B41-A48C-A52A0F2BD4F8
aber vermutlich kommen erst neue Hochs; mein bevorzugtes Szenario hier: http://www.ariva.de/...ertes_Szenario_t342320?pnr=8155731#jump8155731 bisher läuft das ganz gut in meine Richtung. Für einen noch zügigeren Absturz bedarf es dringend eines neuen Tiefs. Aber da sprechen neben den im verlinkten Posting erwähnten Faktoren noch der TRIN und die Percentage der Stocks im SPX über dem 50 SMA (s. u.)
Quelle jeweils http://www.bespokeinvest.com/
gerade der TrIn paßt wunderbar in mein Szenario; war es Anfang 2007 der New-Century Warnschuß, so treibt nun Griechenland das große Geld raus aus dem Markt. 2007/8 folgte dann die große Bankenkrise; Mitte bis Ende 2010 könnte dann die große Sovereign-Krise stattfinden; Japan (steigende Arbeitslosigkeit in Folge des starken Yen führt zu steigenden Renditen, da die Domestics nicht mehr sparen können) ist mein Hauptkandidat, gefolgt von GB, und vielleicht am Ende den USA. Die Sparbemühungen in der EU (so sie denn erfolgreich sind) sorgen hier für einen Konjunkturdämpfer.
Der Anstieg auf neue Hochs sollte mit extremen Schwankungen erfolgen; das ist typisch für e-waves in einem expanding triangle am Ende einer großen Korrektur (in der wir uns seit März 2009 befinden).USD/EÚR wird kein neues Hoch machen. (zumindest erstmal) Allein die Korrektur der bisherigen Abwärtsbewegung in die Region (1,35-38) sollte die Aktienmarktrally genug befeuern.
Es sind auch noch andere Elliott-Szenarien möglich, aber wie gesagt für einen raschen Absturz bedarf es eines neuen Tiefs (das ein leading diagonal abschließen würde, ebenfalls erstmal gefolgt von einer kräftigen Erholung ). Ein deutliches Überschreiten der 10300 im Dow macht dieses Szenario äußerst unwahrschinlich.
Soros Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis
By Zoe Schneeweiss and Andrew MacAskill
June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros said “we have just entered Act II” of the crisis as Europe’s fiscal woes worsen and governments are pressured to curb budget deficits that may push the global economy back into recession.
“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” Soros said today at a conference in Vienna. “Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.”
Soros, 79, said the current situation in the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s with governments under pressure to narrow their budget deficits at a time when the economic recovery is weak.
Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this year. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to refinance, according to Bank of America Corp.
“When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide,” Soros said.
Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he reportedly made $1 billion correctly betting against the British pound. He also wagered that Germany’s mark would appreciate after the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and that Japanese stocks would start to fall in the same year. His firm, Soros Fund Management LLC, manages about $25 billion.
Credit default swaps, which aim to protect bondholders against the risk of a default, are dangerous and a “license to kill,” Soros said today. CDSs should only be allowed if there is an insurable interest, he said.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aY_SHqr1LQhk
Chinese inflation quickened to a 19-month high in May, but a moderation of growth in factory production and capital spending could further ease worries that the world's third-largest economy runs the risk of boiling over.
Consumer prices rose 3.1 percent in the year to May compared with a 2.8 percent annual rise in April, confirming a Reuters report from Wednesday and exceeding the official year-average target of 3 percent.
However, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, which released the data on Friday, said price pressures were easing and expressed confidence that Beijing should be able to hit its inflation goal.
The statistics office also reported that annual industrial output growth slowed to 16.5 percent in May from 17.8 percent in April, while year-to-date investment in urban areas in fixed assets such as flats and factories eased to 25.9 percent from 26.1 percent.
Zhang Lei, an economist with Bohai Securities in Tianjin, said it was unlikely that China would tighten policy further given that underlying inflationary pressures were easing and robust economic growth was likely to keep slowing.
"In fact, if the economy cools down at a faster rate than expected, the government may have to relax its policies," he said.
Others disagreed, saying they still expected the People's Bank of China to raise interest rates at some point.
Unlike some Asia-Pacific neighbors such as India, Australia and Malaysia, China has kept its benchmark rates unchanged this year, preferring more targeted measures to curb prices such as a crackdown on property speculation.
"Although CPI growth shows signs of stabilizing from last month, it has exceeded the PBOC's limit. If it continues to rise in June, an interest rate increase is possible," said Chen Xingyu, an analyst with Phillip Securities Research in Shanghai.
Figures released by the central bank showed the success of its efforts to normalize monetary policy after a record government-orchestrated credit spree last year to help the economy weather the global downturn.
The pace of bank lending and money supply growth slowed, with new local currency-denominated loans extended in May falling to 639.4 billion yuan from 774 billion in April.
"Beijing would like to delay tightening policy further until it gets a clearer read of the property market and the fallout from Euro-area weakness, but this strategy is risky given the near-term outlook for inflation," said Brian Jackson, a strategist with Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.
"We expect to see higher lending rates and a stronger currency in the months ahead."
China on Thursday reported a near 50 percent annual jump in exports and imports in May, reassuring investors about the economy's strength but putting pressure on U.S. President Barack Obama to placate critics who say Beijing is keeping the yuan currency unfairly undervalued.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated on Thursday that U.S. patience on China's currency policy was wearing thin and a key lawmaker warned that he would move soon on legislation that would penalize Chinese goods.
von Henrik Voigt
Der DAX setzte gestern mit einem recht normalen Tagesgewinn an die 50-Tage-Linie zurück. Auffällig ist, dass sich im Zuge dessen sofort die bullischen Prognosen für die kommenden Monate vermehren wie Bakterien im Reagenzglas. Dabei ist bisher nichts weiter passiert. Der Index pendelt seit Wochen zwischen der 50- und der 200-Tage-Linie in einem nach wie vor intakten kurzfristigen Abwärtstrend und in einem ebenfalls intakten mittelfristigen Aufwärtstrend (siehe rote und grüne Linien im Chart).
Es könnte natürlich noch bullisch werden, falls der Index den Abwärtstrend auf Tagesschlusskursbasis brechen kann, was bisher zweimal misslang. Aber das würde ich zuerst auch gern sehen, bevor ich mir wieder kurz das Bullenfell überstreife. An der übergeordneten Toppbildungsphase wird aber auch eine mögliche Zwischenrallye nichts mehr ändern, denn dafür hat die Maikorrektur bisher schon zu viel charttechnischen Schaden angerichtet. Der DAX steht da noch von allen Indizes am besten da.
Heute oder spätestens zu Beginn der kommenden Woche dürfte eine Entscheidung fallen, ob die Kurse direkt wieder nach unten kippen oder ob weiteres Aufwärtspotential besteht. Pro: Die Indikatoren weisen Kaufsignale auf. Contra: Intakter Abwärtstrend und Abfolge tieferer Hoch- und Tiefpunkte. Wir werden bald sehen, wie sich die Börse entscheidet. Freitage waren ja in letzter Zeit etwas tückisch, während Montage meist positiv verliefen. Wichtige Wirtschaftsdaten oder Quartalszahlen stehen heute nicht an.
DAX im Tageschart
enl.fid-newsletter.de/imgproxy/img/601282532/dax110610.png" style="max-width:560px" />
Nächste Widerstände: 6400, 6200, 6120 Punkte
Nächste Unterstützungen: 5800, 5430, 5320, 5170 Punkte
Herzliche Grüße und viel Erfolg,
Ihr Henrik Voigt.
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