Der USA Bären-Thread

Die deutschen Aktienindizes haben am Donnerstag Kursgewinne verzeichnet. Die seit dem Vortag laufende Stabilisierung des Euro zum Dollar und die in der Folge bereits nach oben drehende Wall Street verbesserten die Stimmung, sagten Börsianer. Sorgen über die Kreditentwicklung von Dubai bis Spanien seien dagegen in den Hintergrund gerückt.

Investing
In Uncertain Times, Guard Your Capital
By Tim Melvin
Street.com Contributor
12/10/2009 12:00 PM EST

Yesterday I heard what may be the comment of the year. One of the talking heads on the TV said that we were probably going to go up until the bill comes due.

I have pointed out before that this rally is driven totally by liquidity and asset allocation. The zero-interest-rate policy of the Fed has pretty much forced money that has been put into stocks and some commodities to earn a return. That much is true. As long as we have rates at these levels, institutional money is going to flow toward the stock market. The false assumption is that anyone will be able to figure out when the bill comes true.

Ask anyone who was heavily invested in technology stocks back in 1999-2000. And recall that in 2008, shares of Lehman and Bear were highly touted in right up until almost the end. One of the old Wall Street adages is that they do not ring a bell at the top of the market. Markets driven by technicals, liquidity and dreams can end suddenly and painfully. Those who are caught heavily invested in the most popular names face a real probability of a permanent loss of capital.

Take Amazon (AMZN) as an example. Everybody loves this company right now, with justification. The Kindle is a game-changing product, and online shopping is all the rage this year. However, what happens when Apple (AAPL) comes out with a notebook product? Amazon is already facing looming competition from Barnes & Noble (BKS) and others.

At more than 70 times earnings, Amazon is priced for perfection. For this Christmas season, the company may well be perfect, but that never lasts. Keep in mind the last time the stock got this high, it sold down into the single digits. It can and does happen. If you buy this one, enjoy the ride for now. But you should keep in mind that you are surfing, and all waves eventually crash on the beach.

We have so many of what Doug Kass has been calling headwinds in front of us that it is going to impossible to figure which one ends the party and sends stock prices dramatically lower. Will it be a health care with the plethora of taxes and fees to pay for the new programs? Will it be the passing of a trader's tax, which is gaining acceptance almost daily in the corridors of Washington? Will it be a continuing collapse of commercial real estate? I do not know, and that is exactly my point. Neither does anyone else right now, and the vast majority of traders and investors are never going to see it coming.

Ben Bernanke has told us that interest rates will remain low for some time. The administration just extended the TARP program unit next October. Doesn't that give us permission to stay long until then? Possibly, unless something else goes wrong between now and then. Keep in mind that I have said all along that the keys to the economy and eventually the market are unemployment and real estate. They are both still getting worse. We have poured billions into fixing the housing mess, and prices are still declining. I find it hard to think that the jobs program announced this week will have any different impact on rising unemployment.

I do not want to come across as a doom and gloom, it's-the-end-of-the-world person. I am just saying that it will pay to exercise caution and restraint. Think like a businessperson when investing. Do I want to be in this business, and I am I paying a good price for the company? I have bought a few stocks in recent months, but they all traded for less than cash on the books and were not bleeding cash. I have a huge margin of safety in such issues. My radar has companies that I want to buy lower, but my buy targets are all some fraction of their net asset value. Even if the market collapses, the odds of me sustaining a permanent loss of capital are slight at best.

I do not wish to find myself like Blanche in A Streetcar Named Desire, dependent on the kindness of others. Buying stocks because we believe the punchbowl will stay there long enough to make our fortune is dangerous, in my opinion. We do not know how long it will stay there, and the party will end abruptly. It always does.

The truth is that you can do well, especially in the long run, by paying attention to the business you are buying and the price you are paying. Focusing on valuation and maintaining a margin of safety can keep you from sustaining permanent losses when the liquidity rally does end.
 

Kaum Baulärm in New York

Die Weltwirtschaftskrise bringt beschert dem wichtigsten Wirtschafts- und Finanzzentrum der Vereinigten Staaten zahlreiche verlassene Baustellen: In New York City liegen derzeit insgesamt 515 Bauvorhaben auf Eis.

Allein im Stadtteil Brooklyn habe die Wirtschaftskrise 237 Projekte zum Erliegen gebracht, teilte das Amt für Bauvorhaben mit. In Queens seien bis zum 29. November 140 gestoppte Vorhaben gemeldet worden. In Manhattan zählte die Behörde 80 vorübergehend gestoppte Bauprojekte.

"Offensicht hat die wirtschaftliche Schwäche jetzt auch auf Wohnprojekte übergegriffen, die bereits genehmigt und bei denen der Bau schon begonnen hat", sagte Richard Anderson vom "Building Congress", einer Art rundem Tisch für die Förderung des New Yorker Städtebaus.

Das Amt für Bauvorhaben rief die Regierung der Millionenstadt auf, die Projekte mit Anreizen wie Steuervergünstigungen wieder in Gang zu bringen.

Quelle: mmo/rts

U.S. Treasury debt prices tumbled on Thursday, sending 30-year yields to four-month highs after a poorly bid long-bond auction, which could revive worries over funding the huge federal budget deficit.

The government sold $13 billion of 30-year bonds in an auction that was weak on all measures and suffered from its year-end timing when many financial market professionals are reluctant to commit funds for such long-term investments.

The 30-year auction ended this week's three offerings totaling $74 billion. Though that's below the weekly record of $123 billion set in October, it is a lot of debt to sell in a traditionally quiet time of the year.

"This was a sloppy reception to the long end of the curve, largely driven by the lack of players at year-end," said Larry Milstein, head of government and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. in New York.

The 30-year long bond fell rapidly after the auction, pushing yields up as far as 4.51 percent, their highest since August. They were last down a point, yielding 4.48 percent.

Though analysts blamed seasonal factors for the poor results, given that many money managers focus on bookkeeping and window dressing this time of year, it could leave the market jittery going into the new year.

The burgeoning U.S. national debt has placed extraordinary focus on bond auctions this year, especially after investors appeared to question the longevity of the United States' prized AAA rating for a brief time back in May.

Government borrowing shot higher this year as Washington paid for bailouts of the financial sector and measures aimed at stimulating the economy amid the worst recession in seven decades.