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The U.S. economy appears destined for several years of weak growth and high unemployment that leave it vulnerable to a recession relapse after the massive dose of government stimulus wears off.
While tepid growth looks likely to resume late this year and build modestly into 2010, the credit bust has left households and businesses unable or unwilling to borrow and spend as freely as they did before the crisis.
The U.S. government has stepped in as lender and spender of last resort, but its deep pockets are not bottomless. Waning political and investor appetite for taking on more debt could stand in the way of any additional big spending plans.
"When you remove the government stimulus, what the private sector can generate in terms of growth feels like a recession," said Jeffrey Rosenberg, head of global credit strategy at Bank of America Securities Merrill Lynch in New York.
Rosenberg thinks the U.S. economy may trudge along at a sluggish growth rate somewhere in the range of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent while banks recover from the credit crisis, which could take another three years.
"If that's what you're able to generate, that economy is not generating the job growth required to bring the unemployment rate down," Rosenberg said.
This is a much darker outlook than the one put forward by President Barack Obama's administration in its latest budget projections, which show economic growth bouncing back to 3.2 percent next year and hitting 4.6 percent by 2012.
It also calls into question the staying power of a recent stock market rally.
The Standard & Poor's 500 is up more than 30 percent from an early March low.
The gloomier scenario assumes that banks take years to recover from losses that some economists think could reach $4 trillion; consumers curb borrowing and spending as they repair the $11.2 trillion hole blown through their savings last year; and the explosion in government debt drives up interest rates.
If the forecast proves accurate, it would leave the economy susceptible to a shock, such as a big jump in oil prices, and could force the United States to issue even more debt than investors expect.
That would likely increase borrowing costs, both for the government and the private sector.
Never Say Never
Typically, deep recessions are followed by powerful recoveries because when demand finally returns, companies quickly ramp up production. That helps explain why Wall Street has been feeling optimistic about recovery prospects.
However, recessions caused by financial crises have a history of being long, deep and difficult to fully escape.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday that the current crisis was "caused in large part by too much borrowing and too much lending. And the adjustment process of that will be difficult."
How difficult that adjustment will be depends to a large degree on how dramatically consumers alter their behavior. The saying, "Never bet against the U.S. consumer" has been a profitable one for many years.
But if this crisis has permanently altered consumer attitudes toward debt, it would put a considerable drag on growth because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
The other anchor is interest rates. Christian Broda, an economist with Barclays Capital, said higher borrowing costs "are an inescapable feature of the post-recovery world" as public deficits and spending grow.
Already, huge government debt issuance is raising questions about long-term U.S. fiscal stability. Concerns grew last week that the country could be stripped of its top-tier AAA credit rating after Standard & Poor's said it was considering downgrading Britain's sovereign rating.
This week marks a big test of investor appetite for U.S. debt. The government plans to issue a massive $101 billion in notes and bonds, matching the weekly record set in April.
Broda thinks the yield on 10-year U.S. government paper may reach 6 percent by 2011, compared with 3.4 percent now. Because so many other loans are based on that rate, that could make it costlier to buy a house or expand a business.
No Way Out
It all adds up to a sluggish economy with less cushion to cope with a shock. What form that shock might take remains to be seen, but a jump in oil prices is one likely suspect.
Oil has nearly doubled since the start of the year, topping $60 per barrel Tuesday, and futures prices suggest it will edge higher at least through the peak summer driving season.
"You start firing up demand and guess which price goes up first? Oil," said James Galbraith, an economist who teaches at the University of Texas' LBJ School of Public Affairs. "If I were in a position to be talking strategy to the (Obama) administration, I would be saying you've got to take the energy business seriously. You're going to end up in a stagflation trap."
If the economy climbs out of one recession and into another, it wouldn't be the first time. It happened most recently in the early 1980s, when the United States endured two recessions in less than three years.
Regardless of what triggers a relapse, the Obama administration won't stand idly by, Banc of America's Rosenberg said. There will be pressure for even more stimulus spending, particularly if the economy is faltering when midterm congressional elections approach in 2010.
"The problem is whether or not (stimulus) can work without itself creating other problems," Rosenberg said. "The most likely 'other problem' is a rise in interest rates. What one hand giveth, the other hand taketh away."
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum Verbrauchervertrauen ("Consumer Confidence") des Conference Boards für Mai 2009
Der US-amerikanische Vertrauensindex notiert im Mai bei 54,9. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 42. Im Vormonat hatte er bei 40,8 notiert. Damit wurde die ursprüngliche Veröffentlichung von 39,2 nach oben revidiert.
derviatecheck.de
Bei der Gehirnwäsche, die US-Medien zum Thema Erholung verbreiten, ist der Anstieg des Konsumenten-Vertrauens nicht allzu verwunderlich. Bei den Umfragen werden schließlich Joe Sixpack & Co. befragt und keine Wirtschaftsexperten. Die "Hoffnungen" der Befragten stehen freilich - wie schon die "meinungsbildenden" Medienberichte - mit den harten Zahlen der Realität nicht im Einklang. So hoffen etwa viele der Befragten, dass die US-Wirtschaft neue Jobs generiert, während de facto seit Jahresanfang monatlich im Schnitt über 600.000 Jobs wegfallen und die Arbeitlosenquote auf 8,9 % gestiegen ist - viele Experten rechnen zum Jahresende mit einer Quote von über 10 %. Allein die Chrysler- und kommende GM-Pleite (Bonds-Halter lehnen Swap-Pläne mit großer Mehrheit ab, heute läuft Frist aus) werden knapp 200.000 zusätzliche Arbeitslose "schaffen".
Entscheidend bleibt, ob die US-Konsumenten nicht nur "große Hoffnungen" haben, sondern auch tatsächlich wieder mehr konsumieren werden. Ich bezweifle dies, weil ihnen dazu die Mittel (Kredite, Jobs) fehlen.
A.L.
May 26, 2009, 12:35 p.m. EST
Consumer confidence, or consumer hope?
Commentary: Higher numbers don't always mean more spending
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- They call it "consumer confidence," but the numbers released Tuesday by the Conference Board might better be pegged as "consumer hope."
There's a big difference, namely that confidence translates into spending, while hope is just a good feeling.
The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence was up 35% from April, the fourth-largest jump in the 32-year history of the index. The move left consumer confidence in positive territory at 54.9, the highest it has been in eight months. The gain was far bigger than economists expected.
Consumers clearly believe the worst is behind this economy and the market, when it's not clear at all to the experts that the U.S. can avoid another leg down -- or worse -- en route to a broad-based recovery.
Consider that there was a big increase in the percentage of consumers expecting the economy to generate new jobs, despite no evidence that the current economy can actually achieve that.
Consumers expect inflation at a rate north of 5%, even though government numbers have been showing price deflation; that disconnect should undermine confidence. And while rising gas prices were cited as dampening confidence in 2008, consumers appear to be ignoring the action in gas prices now.
Consumers ignore possible problems when they are feeling good, but the true measure of consumer confidence ultimately is reflected in consumer spending. Any positive move in confidence now won't be reflected in those numbers until late summer.
In a MarketWatch interview, Joseph Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel, Nicolas, said: "The data is mixed as to whether or not consumers are actually going to open their pocketbooks and start spending again." [Man sollte auch mal hinterfragen, wieviel Mittel ihnen dafür eigentlich noch bleiben ... - A.L.]
The problem with the index reflecting more hope than reality is that the numbers could whipsaw based on bad news, and headline risk right now is big. Jobs, inflation, gas prices, the future of the auto industry, the foothold gained by federal policies and much more will have to be aligned right for confidence gains to continue, and to hold long enough that the now-optimistic consumer actually opens his wallet.
-- Chuck Jaffe
www.marketwatch.com/story/...e-or-consumer-hope?dist=bigcharts
@Pfeifenlümmel: So einfach ist das nicht. Die Amis können auch nicht einfach ihr Haus hinter sich lassen und damit die Schulden auf die Bank abwälzen. Das geht nur über eine Privatinsolvens. Da darst du dann aber sieben Jahre nur ein minimales Einkommen und kein Eigentum haben.
Ganz so einfach wie du dir das vorstellst geht es also nicht. Ich habe in den USA -lange her- Insolvenzrecht im Nebenfach gehabt.
Gruß
Permanent
Heute von 1,12 auf 1,50 Dollar bei hohem Volumen. Morgen über 2,00??
Diese Woche, vielleicht schon morgen, kommt die Pleite. Darauf soll der Markt, wie US-Medien vermuten, mit einer Erleichterungs-Rally reagieren - weil die Unsicherheit dann weg ist. Denn nichts hasst der Markt mehr als Unsicherheit.
Auch GM selbst könnte bei dieser Rallye mitsteigen - aus Erleichterung, dass die Pleite dann Gewissheit ist. Trader nehmen das heute schon vorweg.
Für mich ein klarer Kauf. Auch die Bonds notieren mit 5 Cents auf den Dollar äußerst günstig.
wenn man den Index aus hinreichend kleinem Abstand betrachtet.
(Chart stammt aus Link in # 43589)
market pulse
May 26, 2009, 2:15 p.m. EST
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures reversed their earlier losses, rising in mid-afternoon trading Tuesday as data showed a jump in U.S. consumer confidence. Crude for July delivery rose 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $61.91 a barrel in electronic trading. A reading on U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 54.9 in May from an upwardly revised 40.8 in April as expectations for jobs improved, the Conference Board reported Tuesday morning.
Das geht so lange gut, bis Öl fällt, weil die Konsumenten wegen des überhöhten Ölpreises wieder pessimistisch sind. Dann beginnt allerdings die nächste Heiz-Saison, was die Öl-Preise erneut hoch- und den Konsumenten noch weiter runter treibt.
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