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Der USA Bären-Thread

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Der USA Bären-Thread schlauerfuchs
schlauerfuchs:

We can...

2
16.02.09 13:01
... do nothing. Oder so ähnlich. Patentrezept hab ich natürlich keines (bin aber auch kein US-Präsident). Ich wollte nur darauf hinweisen, dass eine Abwicklung von GM nicht "einfach mal so" zu bewerkstelligen ist. Man liest über die GM Pleite mittlerweile wie den täglichen Wetterbericht, so nach dem Motto "Kräht der Hanh auf dem Mist, ändert sich das Wetter oder es bleibt wie's ist".
Der USA Bären-Thread jungchen
jungchen:

auch nicht schlecht...

10
16.02.09 15:28
Santander halts redemptions on real estate fund
By MarketWatch
Last update: 8:52 a.m. EST Feb. 16, 2009

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- Spain's Banco Santander SA said Monday it has sought a two-year suspension of redemptions from its real estate fund Santander Banif Inmobiliario, after investors requested the withdrawal of 80% of the fund's capital. In a regulatory filing, Santander said investors have asked for redemptions of EUR2.62 billion, an amount that the fund said it couldn't pay out in the short term due to lack of liquidity. The fund invested in Spain and has a portfolio that includes 132 residential buildings with 7,195 apartments, 25 office buildings as well as industrial buildings, malls and a hospital.

www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...2C779F356D9%7D&dist=hplatest
Ich brauche einen Balkon - damit ich zum Volk sprechen kann.
Der USA Bären-Thread permanent
permanent:

Obama Forming Auto Task Force, Drops "Car Czar" Id

4
16.02.09 16:12
Obama Forming Auto Task Force, Drops "Car Czar" Idea
GENERAL MOTORS, UNITED AUTO WORKERS, AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY, LABOR UNIONS
Reuters
| 16 Feb 2009 | 07:14 AM ET

President Barack Obama has decided to form a government task force for restructuring the struggling U.S. auto industry instead of naming a "car czar" with sweeping powers, a senior administration official said.

 

Obama is appointing Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner as his "designee" for overseeing auto bailout loans and as co-head of the new high-level panel along with White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers, the official said.

But Obama, who took office on Jan. 20 and last week won congressional approval of a massive economic stimulus program, has dropped the idea of having a single "car czar" empowered  to handle the politically sensitive task of revamping the auto industry.

"There is no 'car czar,'" the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

There was no immediate word on when Obama, due to return to Washington on Monday after spending the long Presidents Day holiday weekend back home in Chicago, planned to unveil his strategy.

But General Motors and Chrysler, are required to submit new turnaround plans by Tuesday showing how they can be made viable after receiving $13.4 billion in emergency aid at the end of Bush  administration.

The clock was ticking on crucial talks between GM and the United Auto Workers, which resumed on Sunday after negotiations had broken off. If GM cannot win deals to cut debt and costs, the automaker would be left reliant on an expanded bailout from the Obama administration or forced to consider bankruptcy.

Obama, in an interview with regional U.S. newspapers last week, said the federal government may offer more help to ailing automakers if they show they can be commercially viable. He cautioned the companies needed to submit realistic plans.

 

The administration official said the automakers were expected to submit their restructuring plans on time and that government teams were working with the companies and their stakeholders to resolve remaining issues.

"We will continue to engage with them on a daily basis, as we have been over the course of the last two months, to work through various issues," the official said. "Once received, we will analyze the reports and over the course of the next week or two will meet with the companies to work through them," the official added.

Automakers and their stakeholders will be expected to "show progress in meeting the restructuring goals set forth in their plans" by the end of the month, the official said.
    
Presidential Task Force

The presidential task force will be drawn from the departments of Treasury, Labor, Transportation, Commerce, and Energy, the National Economic Council, the White House Office of Energy and Environment and the Council of Economic Advisers and the Environmental Protection Agency.

It will be overseen by Geithner and Summers, the official said. Ron Bloom, a corporate restructuring expert and former executive at Lazard Freres and Co, was named to administration's auto team as a senior adviser at Treasury.

Union negotiators who had walked away from the bargaining table on Friday over differences with GM over the central issue of how to fund retiree health-care costs were back at the table on Sunday, according to a source briefed on the situation.

It was unclear if any agreement could be reached by Tuesday's deadline for submitting restructuring plans.

Meanwhile, GM and a committee of its bondholders were locked in high-stake talks aimed at reducing debt at the struggling automaker by about $18 billion.

GM spokesman Steve Harris said the automaker's board would convene on a conference call on Monday to review a draft of the restructuring plan although work on it was likely to continue right up until the deadline for submission.

  • Slideshow: America's Most Ticketed Cars

    Both GM and Chrysler have said they expect to meet cost-cutting targets set out under the government bailout, which include making blue-collar labor costs competitive with Japanese automakers that operate factories in the Untied States. UAW representatives could not be reached for comment.

    GM , Chrysler and Ford Motor have cut 250,000 jobs since the start of the decade and are looking to cut more.

    Ford, which is seeking a $9 billion line of credit from the U.S. government, remains in talks with the UAW intended to secure any concessions granted to its rivals.

Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Münte will, dass Banker sich mehr waschen

4
16.02.09 17:48

...dieses verstunkene Pack ! Bislang haben die nur Geld gewaschen.

Oder mein Münte mit "Selbstreinigung" etwa eine innere yogische Läuterung?

 


 

Spiegel

Müntefering ruft Banker zur Selbstreinigung auf

Der Druck wird größer, die Kritik lauter: Die Bundesregierung verlangt von Bankern den Verzicht auf Bonuszahlungen - das diene der "Selbstreinigung". Kein Betroffener müsse dadurch "ein Butterbrot weniger essen", sagte SPD-Chef Müntefering.

Berlin - Im Streit über millionenschwere Bonuszahlungen hat SPD-Chef Franz Müntefering eine "Selbstreinigung" der Banken gefordert. Die Menschen, die zum Teil mit sittenwidrigen Niedriglöhnen auskommen müssten, seien zu Recht darüber empört, dass sich Manager aus Steuertöpfen die Taschen vollstopfen wollten, sagte der Parteichef am Montag nach einer Präsidiumssitzung in Berlin. Durch Verzicht auf solche "unglaublichen" Zusatzzahlungen brauche kein Begünstigter "ein Butterbrot weniger zu essen".

Auch von Seiten der Bundeskanzlerin kam Kritik. Sprecher Ulrich W. sagte, es sei "kein gutes Vorgehen", auch bei schlechten Unternehmensergebnissen auf vereinbarten Bonuszahlungen zu beharren. Die Betroffenen sollten sich dies "noch einmal gut überlegen". (Haha, da hilft nur nachträgliche Enteignung - A.L.) Kanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) und weitere Mitglieder der Bundesregierung hatten die geplante Ausschüttung von Millionenboni an Bankmanager für das Krisenjahr 2008 bereits am Wochenende scharf kritisiert.

Keine Handhabe für rückwirkendes Eingreifen

Der Druck auf die Banken steigt, auch wenn die Politik nicht direkt handeln kann. Für ein rückwirkendes Eingreifen in die Vergütungssysteme von Banken habe der Staat keine Handhabe, sagte W.  Ansprüche auf Sonderzahlungen bei Banken unterlägen zivilrechtlichen Regelungen. Nur wenn der Staat sich mit Kapital bei einem Geldinstitut beteilige, könne er Einfluss auf eine Überarbeitung des Vergütungssystems nehmen.... (Oder er nimmt halt die Banken weg, geht auch - A.L.)

www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,607885,00.html

 


Posi tief ist, dass die Banken zumindest die Boni nicht verschüttet haben. Die wurden in die richtigen Töpfe ausgeschüttet.

 

Der USA Bären-Thread Malko07
Malko07:

Da bleibt nur der Schnaps

11
16.02.09 18:02

Konjunktureinbruch

Japan fällt in Schockstarre

Der dramatische Konjunktureinbruch Japans offenbart, wie verwundbar die zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt ist. Das Land droht, in einen Teufelskreis zu rutschen.
Von Carsten Matthäus

An diesen Zahlen etwas zu beschönigen, wagt niemand. Japans Wirtschaft schrumpft im dritten Quartal in Folge. Im Vergleich zum Vorquartal sank das Brutttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) von Oktober bis Dezember 2008 um 3,3 Prozent, im Vergleich zum letzten Quartal 2007 sind es sogar 12,7 Prozent. Es ist "die schlimmste Wirtschaftskrise der Nachkriegszeit", sagt Japans Wirtschaftsminister Kaoru Yosano.

Japan ist damit unter den großen Volkswirtschaften der Welt der größte Verlierer. Leider spricht viel dafür, dass das Land mit seinen rund 120 Millionen Einwohnern länger und stärker unter der Krise leiden wird als die USA oder Europa.

Weiter unter www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/848/458499/text/

Der USA Bären-Thread 5451240


Japans Finanzminister lallt vor der Presse

"Er trinkt wirklich gerne"

Geschlossene Augen, lallende Stimme: Japans Finanzminister präsentiert sich auf einer Pressekonferenz in Rom in verheerender Verfassung. Jetzt bangt das Land um seinen Ruf.

Vermutlich kannte der japanische Finanzminister Shoichi Nakagawa schon am Wochenende die dramatischen Zahlen, die den herben Einbruch der japanischen Wirtschaft belegen.

Gut möglich, dass er deshalb zu tief ins Glas geschaut hat. Jedenfalls präsentierte sich Nakagawa auf dem G7-Gipfel in Rom in desaströser Verfassung.

Weiter unter www.sueddeutsche.de/,tt4l1/wirtschaft/838/458489/text/


 

Der USA Bären-Thread Malko07
Malko07:

Das Bild zum Schnaps

15
16.02.09 18:04
(Verkleinert auf 93%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 216745
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Ich dachte, in Japan gäb's nur Reisschnaps?

8
16.02.09 18:10
Naja, Hauptsache das haut rein....
Der USA Bären-Thread 216746
Der USA Bären-Thread Wubert
Wubert:

Hossa, jetzt bleibt mir wirklich die Spucke weg.

14
16.02.09 18:11
Zuerst ein leises "Sorry" falls das hier alles schon stand, aber nach dieser Lektüre möchte man wirklich zum Kauf von Konserven und Feuerholz aufrufen. Was mich vielleicht am meisten entzürnt daran ist der Artikel in der ZEIT, bzw. dessen Inhalt, demzufolge sich Regierung und Medien abgesprochen haben, dem Volk die tatsächliche Tragweite der Problematik zu verschweigen:

"Am 8. Oktober 2008 war die Krise noch jung, man möchte fast sagen: unschuldig. An jenem Mittwochabend luden die Bundeskanzlerin und ihr Finanzminister die Chefs der wichtigsten Zeitungen ins Kanzleramt, um ihnen eine Botschaft zu übermitteln. Die lautete: Wir wissen zwar nicht genau, was in zwei oder drei Wochen ist, aber würden doch sehr herzlich um Ihr Vertrauen bitten und vor allem darum, dass Sie keine schlechte Stimmung machen, denn dazu ist die Lage zu ernst." [...] www.zeit.de/2009/06/Ratlosigkeit?page=all

Und warum wird erst am 29.1.2009 darüber berichtet? Sind wir nun schon weich genug für die Wahrheit?

Gestolpert bin ich über das Ganze in einem Blog, dessen Tenor eigentlich dazu führt, dass ich ihm recht zweifelhaft gegenüber stehe:

[...] "Es gibt derzeit bei den europäischen Banken Wertpapiere im Umfang von 18.100 Milliarden Euro, oder 18 Billionen, (das sind 44 Prozent!! aller Vermögenswerte der europäischen Banken), die entweder "faul" (d.h. betrügerisch bewertet und in alle Himmelsrichtungen verscherbelt wurden) und/oder schlicht unverkäuflich sind.
Nur in der britischen Presse war etwas darüber zu lesen. Einige wenige Personen, u.a. vom britischen Telegraph, konnten dieses Papier einsehen. Der Telegraph veröffentlichte aber nur wenige Stunden lang die obigen, dramatischen Zahlen, dann verschwand die Nachricht wieder. Der Link zum Artikel zeigt noch die Zahl "16.3-trillion" Pfund, aber der Inhalt hat sich geändert(??)." [...] - alles-schallundrauch.blogspot.com/2009/02/...18-billionen.html

Und gerade dieser Absatz ist in Verbindung mit dem ZEIT-Artikel so besonders Brisant, es lohnt sich, die Diskrepanz zwischen Link bzw. (Browser-Fenster-)Überschrift zu beachten: www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/...oument-warns.html

Wahrscheinlich stand das alles hier aber schon vor Wochen ... leider komm ich nicht mehr dazu, wirklich alles zu lesen.

Und jetzt? Revolution? Oder Subsistenzwirtschaft auf einer Tropeninsel ... Wer kommt mit?

Bedröppelte Grüße, w.
ignorance is bliss
Der USA Bären-Thread Casaubon
Casaubon:

War er in etwa so betrunken wie der hier?

12
16.02.09 18:15
Dieses Video wurde damals NICHT im französischen Fernsehen gezeigt, Sarkozy ließ seinen Einfluss bei den Sendern spielen. Aber ganz dankbar wurde das Video vom belgischen Fernseher aufgegriffen und munter umhergezeigt.
der Moderator konnte sich anschließend nicht mehr retten vor lauter Anfragen aus dem Ausland.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fMCTo-GQ2A&feature=related
"La liberté de la presse ne s'use que quand on ne s'en sert pas"
Der USA Bären-Thread Malko07
Malko07:

#38434: Als Weintrinker

6
16.02.09 18:19
sollte man sich nicht mit Russen auf das Wodkatrinken einlassen.

;o)
Der USA Bären-Thread Casaubon
Casaubon:

PS: zum besseren Verständnis

3
16.02.09 18:20
Sarko kam eben von einem üppigen Mittagessen mit Putin.

Ich glaube, Bären vertragen Wodka besser ;-)

Man braucht nicht mal französisch zu verstehen, um Sarko lallen zu hören.
Was er später von sich gibt, ergibt eh keinen Sinn mehr. der redet komplett konfuses Zeug zusammen und bringt die Sätze nicht zu Ende.
"La liberté de la presse ne s'use que quand on ne s'en sert pas"
Der USA Bären-Thread metropolis
metropolis:

Frage

6
16.02.09 18:21
Warum reagiert der Nikkei nicht (nach unten)? Sind die BIP-Zahlen vielleicht Schnaps von gestern? Werden die Abwrackprämien eingepreist? Eure Erklärungen würden mich ernsthaft interessieren.
Der USA Bären-Thread permanent
permanent:

...of Presidents.

6
16.02.09 18:33

"Worry is the interest paid by those who borrow trouble."

Der USA Bären-Thread 5451371ecmps.pqa.com/blog/images/PresidentsDay-w.jpg" style="max-width:560px" alt="" />

"The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."

Der USA Bären-Thread Malko07
Malko07:

#38437: Nur Geduld.

3
16.02.09 18:51
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Amerikas Bankenkrise schlimmer als Japan?

12
16.02.09 19:00
www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13110352
....Today’s mess in America is as big as Japan’s—and in some ways harder to fix.  This crisis, like most others in rich countries, emerged from a property bubble and a credit boom. The scale of the bubble—a doubling of house prices in five years—was about as big in America’s ten largest cities as it was in Japan’s metropolises. But nationwide, house prices rose further in America and Britain than they did in Japan (see first chart). So did commercial-property prices. In absolute terms, the credit boom on top of the housing bubble was unparalleled. In America private-sector debt soared from $22 trillion in 2000 (or the equivalent of 222% of GDP) to $41 trillion (294% of GDP) in 2007 (see second chart).

Judged by standard measures of banking distress, such as the amount of non-performing loans, America’s troubles are probably worse than those in any developed-country crash bar Japan’s. According to the IMF, non-performing loans in Sweden reached 13% of GDP at the peak of the crisis. In Japan they hit 35% of GDP. A recent estimate by Goldman Sachs suggests that American banks held some $5.7 trillion-worth of loans in “troubled” categories, such as subprime mortgages and commercial property. That is equivalent to almost 40% of GDP.
As the world’s biggest debtor, America headed into this bust in a very different position from Japan, a creditor nation rich in domestic savings. Nonetheless the macroeconomic trends in America look more like those that existed in Japan than other crisis-hit countries. Most big banking failures, from Sweden’s to South Korea’s, were created or worsened by a currency crash. Tumbling exchange rates raised the real burden of foreign-currency loans, forced policymakers to keep interest rates high and pushed up the fiscal costs of bankrescues....

              ........In some ways America’s macroeconomic environment is even trickier than Japan’s. America may have a big current-account deficit, but the dollar has strengthened in recent months. America’s reliance on foreign funding means the risk of a currency crash cannot be ruled out, however. That, in turn, places constraints on the pace at which policymakers can pile up public debt. And even if the dollar were to tumble, the global nature of the recession might mean it would yield few benefits....

..... What is worse, today’s bust is not just about banking. America faces twin financial crashes (as, to a lesser degree, do other Anglo-Saxon countries): one in the regulated banking sector and a simultaneous collapse of the “shadow banking system”, the universe of hedge funds and investment banks responsible for much of the recent securitisation boom as well as for the sharp rise in financial leverage.

As a result, standard measures of banking distress, such as the level of non-performing loans, understate the contractionary pressure. So far most of the credit collapse in America has come from the demise of securitisation. In 2007, for instance, $668 billion of non-traditional mortgages were securitised. Last year that figure dropped to $40 billion. Rapid deleveraging outside traditional banks also means that cleaning up banks’ balance-sheets may not break the spiral that is driving down asset prices and stalling financial markets. As the lower chart shows, financial-sector debt was the fastest-growing component of private-sector debt in recent years. Many of those excesses are being unwound at warp speed. ....

Nonetheless, the rebuilding of American households’ balance-sheets is likely to force a reliance on government demand that is bigger and longer-lasting than many now imagine. In the aftermath of Japan’s bubble, firms spent more than a decade paying down debt and rebuilding their balance-sheets. This sharp rise in corporate saving was countered by a drop in the savings rate of Japanese households and, most importantly, by a huge—and persistent—increase in budget deficits.
A similar dynamic will surely play out in America’s over-indebted households. With their assets worth less and credit tight, people will be forced to save much more than they used to..The household saving rate has risen to 3.6% of disposable income after being negative in 2007. For much of the post-war period it was around 8%, and in the short-term it could easily exceed that..........
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Chart

7
16.02.09 19:15
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

The Mortgage Rescue Plan: Will It Work?

6
16.02.09 19:25
The answer? An emphatic no. This is simply the latest example of legal plunder perpetrated by the federal government against law-abiding, tax-paying citizens.

The Obama administration’s scheme to help troubled borrowers centers on subsidizing interest payments, which would help borrowers make ends meet without angering those investors expecting full payments each month. This marks the first time the government is intervening directly with taxpayer funds to ease the burden of monthly mortgage payments.

Bloomberg reports the plan will be voluntary for lenders like Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC), and will employ many of the tactics previous modification efforts have used (ineffectively), such as loan extensions and principal reductions. Modifications identified as having a net present value will be targeted, where foreclosing would be more expensive than changing the loan terms.

The program aims to establish a standard for loan modifications that can be used industry-wide. That's an absurd claim, which demonstrates the extent to which lawmakers misunderstand the scope of the problem. It's a bit like saying every American must cut their hair the same way: It would be laughable it weren’t so sad.
Each mortgage, each borrower, each lender, each home is unique; each situation is different. Individual banks can barely standardize the documents required to close a loan, so the notion that there can be one standard for approving a loan modification -- an intensely complicated procedure involving countless interested parties -- is ridiculous.

It would be one thing if the plan offered even the remotest possibility of stabilizing the housing market. It doesn't.......The societal implications of this program are downright frightening.

Washington cutting checks to borrowers who can’t make their mortgage payments sounds like a benevolent act attempt to reach down to struggling families -- and in some cases, it may certainly help. But it also fosters dependency on the federal government and incentivizes bad behavior.......
www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21137
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Roubini für Verstaatlichung einiger Banken

12
16.02.09 19:30
"Many US banks are insolvent, even the major ones," argues Roubini, professor of economics and international business at NYU Stern, New York University's business school, without naming names. "Call it nationalisation, or if you don't like the dirty N-word, use 'receivership' or whatever is palatable."

Call it what you want, says Roubini, but without nationalisation of some of the major banks in both the US and the UK, the banking crisis will get worse and the current recession deepen.

"If the problem of banks is one of liquidity, you can do anything you like, which seems to me what the US Treasury wants to do," he says, with reference to US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's slightly-fumbled banking bail-out plan launched last week to much disregard from Wall Street.

"But if the banks are insolvent, none of these will work," says Roubini of Geithner's three-part plan which includes stress-testing major banks to see if they need more public capital. "To see which banks are insolvent, a stress test is a step to making these tough decisions," he says, ....

"Triage the banks that are solvent but illiquid, and those that are beyond redemption need to be nationalised. But it's urgent to do it sooner rather than later. Let's not wait another 12 months." .....
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/...t-on-US-banks.html
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

ein finanzielles Stalingrad für Bank Austria

13
16.02.09 19:41
Ambrose Tritchard Evans spricht von der möglichkeit einer financial Götterdämmerung und warnt ,dass Europa bis zur Halskrause sozusagen in bad Loans für Osteuropa steckt

Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.

"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a "monetary Stalingrad" in the East.

Mr Pröll tried to drum up support for his rescue package from EU finance ministers in Brussels last week. The idea was scotched by Germany's Peer Steinbrück. Not our problem, he said. We'll see about that.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut. Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.

"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen. In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data). Spain is up to its neck in Latin America.........Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.  Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus. ........

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...worldwide-meltdown.html
Der USA Bären-Thread permanent
permanent:

Deutsche Ausfuhren fallen im Rekordtempo

12
16.02.09 20:08

Deutsche Ausfuhren fallen im Rekordtempo  Der USA Bären-Thread 5451847

16.02.2009, 20:04 Uhr von Dorit Heß

Ein Grundpfeiler der deutschen Wirtschaft bröckelt – der Export. Die Ausfuhrwirtschaft steht vor dem schwärzesten Jahr der bundesdeutschen Geschichte. Fast jedes zweite Großunternehmen erwartet spürbare Rückschläge – selbst die erfolgsverwöhnten deutschen Maschinenbauer. Wichtig ist jetzt ein Impuls aus dem Inland. Artikel

Der USA Bären-Thread CarpeDies
CarpeDies:

Der Glaube an die Rettungspakete geht verloren

12
16.02.09 21:24
Wenn selbst die Führung der USA verunsichert ist, ob das von Ihnen selbst angezettelte Milliarden-Programm überhaupt eine Wirkung entfaltet, dann können wir davon ausgehen, dass diese Führung darüber weiss, wie dramatisch die Lage in Wirklichkeit ist

White House dampens stimulus expectations
By Alan Elsner

WASHINGTON (Reuters)- President Barack Obama's aides warned Americans on Sunday not to expect instant miracles from the $787 billion economic stimulus bill he will sign this week, but said it would help eventually.

Obama is due to sign the bill passed last week by Congress in Denver on Tuesday. It was the first major legislative victory of his young presidency, which could rise or fall with its success or failure.

"There will be signs of activity very quickly," David Axelrod, the White House senior adviser, said on "Fox News Sunday." "But it's going to take time for that to show up in the statistics. The president has said it's likely to get worse before it gets better."

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs used similar language on CBS' "Face the Nation."

"I don't think there's any doubt that we've seen this economy has gotten worse just in the last few months. The acceleration in job loss probably means that this economy is going to get worse before it gets better," he said.

Obama himself said last week that if he failed to heal the economy, he would be out of a job by 2012, when he faces re-election.

The White House hopes the package will save or create 3.5 million jobs. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, said on "Fox News Sunday" that was likely too optimistic.

"By my estimate, it will add 2 to 2.5 million jobs, more than would be the case without stimulus, by the end of 2010. That translates into a lower unemployment rate of about a point to a point and a half," he said.

Only three Republican senators supported the bill and no Republicans in the House of Representatives backed it. They kept up their criticism on the Sunday television talk shows.

"This bill was not bipartisan. It is incredibly expensive. It has hundreds of billions of dollars in projects which will not yield in jobs," said John McCain, whom Obama defeated in last year's presidential election, said on CNN's "State of the Union."

Gibbs said Obama's team had crafted a stimulus bill to produce jobs as quickly as possible in an economy that lost 3.6 million in the past year.

BALANCED APPROACH

"The urgency to get something done was very important," he said. "What we have here is a very balanced approach that's going to put people to work."

Obama faces a new potential flashpoint next week when two Detroit automakers, General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC, must reach agreements with the United Auto Workers labor union to restructure themselves.

Talks between GM and the union broke down on Saturday. Chrysler's negotiations with the UAW are also deadlocked.

Axelrod made it clear the White House would not intervene in the situation until after Tuesday.

"Obviously, this is a difficult situation and everyone's going to have to continue to work toward a solution. We're going to wait and see what the automakers have to say on Tuesday and we'll go from there," he said.

On a third front, Obama plans to issue a plan to tackle the housing crisis next week, hoping to stem a flood of home foreclosures that has weakened the banking system and frozen credit markets while continuing to depress house prices.

(Editing by Patricia Zengerle)
Der USA Bären-Thread CarpeDies
CarpeDies:

Nationalization in autumn, bank on it

7
16.02.09 21:31
Es wird das ausgesprochen, was vor einem halben Jahr noch undenkbar war:
Posted by: James Saft

– James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

Like it or not the United States will be forced to nationalize large swathes of its banking system by the time the leaves fall from the trees in Washington.

The tragedy is that we will have to wait that long and that the costs will mount.

The plan to rescue the banks, or, er, the people, as enunciated by Treasury Secretary Geithner, is no plan, only an apparent set of contradictory principles: an ideological one not to nationalize and a political one not to subsidize too obviously.

The plan will fail unless the administration comes out in favor of either subsidy or seizure of failing banks. Either the United States will be forced to nationalize when that becomes apparent or perhaps it is waiting until that failure makes nationalization more politically palatable.

In either event, it is a terrible mistake and the cost will only grow, both in direct terms for taxpayers and more broadly for the growing number of people with too little income to pay tax.

Geithner laid out a plan to apply stress tests to large banks and require those that do not pass either to raise capital (from whom exactly, I hear you ask) or to accept an injection of convertible securities from the government on terms that have not been defined. Banks that take government coin will have limits placed on their compensation and other actions.

There is $500 billion to $1 trillion to fund an aggregator bank which will “partner” with private capital and set prices for distressed bank assets, presumably with some sort of insurance wrapper to limit private capital’s downside. There are also measures intended to generate lending directly to consumers, house buyers and businesses.

All in all, it’s a bit like watching a man trying to eat a steak without using his teeth.

“The financial system needs at least $1 trillion in tangible common equity to be sufficiently capitalized — the capital holes on financial balance sheets are just too large to be plugged with convertible securities with vague terms,” Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets who has been very prescient, wrote in a note to clients.

“Another concern … is that it does not adequately address the toxic assets on bank balance sheets. It does include a variation of a public/private aggregator bank, but private investors will want to buy assets at distressed prices and the banks will only sell assets at above-market prices.”

Those two points form the crux of the issue; for the banking system to work without widespread failure and nationalization we either have to hand out huge subsidies to banks directly, in the form of cheap capital, or indirectly, by giving a subsidy to investors who will pass on part of it to banks as a condition of getting their share. The first is unfair, the second unfair and inefficient.

PLAYING THE LONG GAME IN A SHORT LIFE
Of course, it could have been worse. We seem to have escaped calls to magic solvency up by suspending mark-to-market accounting, which would have worked as well as making “six” the new “zero.”

And in fairness we don’t know how the stress tests will work or if it is possible to fail one. But President Obama did tell ABC News that nationalization “wouldn’t make sense” because of the scale and complexity of the U.S. economy and capital markets would make it too tough to manage and oversee. He’s right and government will do a terrible job of managing banks, but it will be forced to and may as well get on with it. They seem now to be hoping that the economy turns and bails them and the banks out of their pickle, but that is a dangerous bet.

By the time we figure out that it’s not working, when whatever capital we have injected is swamped by falls in asset prices — and remember deleveraging and asset price falls go hand in hand — things will be that much bleaker and the United States will have less room to maneuver.

But ironically, maybe the most hopeful sign yesterday was the negative way in which the stock market and shares in banks reacted. Bank investors clearly thought that this raises the chances of them having their equity extinguished or at the very least their share of future profits diminished.

And Obama is not FDR coming in after a depression was already entrenched, he is leading a country which is only beginning to wake up and to suffer. It is just possible, though not likely, that the administration realizes it will have to take more drastic steps but needs more time to prepare the ground and make that politically possible.

One factor which may come into play is international pressure not to nationalise. What is just about possible in the United States would be far harder in economies such as Britain’s with larger banking systems relative to their size and borrowing power.
Der USA Bären-Thread CarpeDies
CarpeDies:

Boni der Bänker unerträglich, Vertrag hin,

9
16.02.09 21:46
Vertrag her.

Viele der auch noch in 2008  gezahlten Banker-Boni, die oft im 7-stelligen Bereich liegen sind Angesicht der sich zuspitzenden Lage unerträglich. Die Rettung der Banken muss davon abhängig gemacht werden, ob diese nicht zu argumentierenden Boni  ausgezahlt werden.

Wie kann es denn sein, dass solche Verträge überhaupt (auch in guten Zeiten) abgeschlossen werden können?
Es müssen doch Klauseln eingebaut worden sein, die im Falle eines Verlust der ganzen Bank, die Auszahlung ganz zu unterbinden. Diejenigen, die diese Verträge abgeschlossen haben, müssten wegen geschäftschädigenden Verhaltens rechtlich und finanziell belangt werden
Bei einem Mittelständler kann sich doch auch nicht der Chef die Taschen vollstopfen und gleichzeitig das Unternehmen in den Ruin treiben. Hier steht der Luxus einer weniger der Existenz vieler gegenüber. MEn muss das ganze Bank intern geregelt werden, z.B. durch Abstimmung aller Mitarbeiter des Unternehmens.

Früher hätten die Leute ihre Chefs mit der Mistgabel aus dem Unternehmen gejagt, und diese konnten froh sein, wenn sie das körperlich unbeschadet überstanden haben.
Der USA Bären-Thread Contrade 121
Contrade 121:

Boni der Banker...

4
16.02.09 22:27
tja CarpeDies - es geht lediglich um die Kontakte der Investmentbanker - immerhin sind solche Leute extrem gut vernetzt und die Deals werden so vergeben, wenn man kennt. Die Banken finanzieren eben den Rest. Für eine Investmentbank sind gut vernetzte Mitarbeiter ein wesentlicher Teil des Geschäftsmodells - das entscheidet über Wohl und Wehe des Kreditinstituts und deshalb ist man bestrebt, die besten Leute zu aquirieren bzw. zu halten. Und was eignet sich dabei am Besten? Die Bonushöhe! Einfache Mathematik eben.
Der USA Bären-Thread PursuitOfHappiness
PursuitOfHap.:

soll mir niemand mehr mit "besten leuten" und

3
16.02.09 23:01
"konkurrenz auf dem arbeitsmarkt" kommen. und was ist mit dem weihnachtsmann? da kommt mir das kotzen...

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