Zwei Mal Motley Fool:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-coronavirus-stocks-that-will-falter-in-a-market-crash-2020-10-28
"2 Coronavirus Stocks That Will Falter in a Market Crash
(..) Unlike Sorrento, BioNTech has fewer coronavirus projects, and it isn't in as dire a condition financially. BioNTech's claim to fame in the coronavirus market is its vaccine project, which it's pursuing under the watchful guidance of Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). BioNTech's vaccine candidate is advancing quickly, and Pfizer has paid it $185 million already, ensuring that it isn't about to run out of cash anytime soon.
Nonetheless, BioNTech's other pipeline projects are still in their earliest stages, and it's unlikely that they will be advancing very rapidly if the company's energies are focused on the vaccine. BioNTech has also diluted its stock even more aggressively than Sorrento, raising 522.98 million Euros in the last 12 months while reporting cash outflows of 239.43 million Euros. This is a bad sign for potential investors, and it may also be indicative that the company is trying to take advantage of its inflated stock price while it still can.
Der Autor wird auf TipRanks als #7.118 unter 7.659 Bloggern geführt (0,25 von 5 Sternen). Offensichtlicher Blödsinn ("523 Mio. Euro Kapitalzufluss in den letzten 12 Monaten sind ein schlechtes Zeichen für Investoren"). Ebenso offensichtliche short-attacke. Die war erfolgreich, allerdings aus anderen Gründen (deutsche lock-down-Diskussion, US-Wahlen). https://stocktwits.com/message/253107390 Deutlich sachorientierter: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/astrazeneca-and-jj-resume-late-stage-trials%3A-how-it-shakes-up-the-coronavirus-vaccine-race AstraZeneca and J&J Resume Late-Stage Trials: How It Shakes Up the Coronavirus Vaccine Race What doesn't change The news from AstraZeneca and J&J doesn't alter the fact that experimental vaccines developed by partners Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) and by Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) remain in the lead in the coronavirus vaccine race. What does change AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have changed the dynamics of the coronavirus vaccine race somewhat now that they're moving forward again with late-stage studies in the U.S. Probably the most significant impact is that the likelihood of the U.S. government quickly expanding supply deals with Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna is lower. No single winner The biotech stocks of relatively small companies such as BioNTech and Moderna are likely to jump more on good news than the shares of big drugmakers like AstraZeneca, J&J, and Pfizer. However, look for any of these stocks to move significantly higher if their respective vaccines win EUA. Kurzfassung: Die Wiederaufnahme von AZs und J&Js Phase 3 in den USA änderte nichts daran, dass BNT162 nach wie vor wahrscheinlich ("likely" - nicht "possibly") der erste Impfstoff sein würden, der US-Zulassung erhält. Allerdings sänke mit dem Wiedereintrit von AZ und J&J die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die US-Regierung nach anfänglichen Käufen von Pfizer und Moderna die optional zusätzlich vereinbarten Mengen voll abnimmt. Letztlich dürfte es nicht einen, sondern mehrere Gewinner im Impfstoffrennen geben. Jeder verträgliche und wirksame Impfstoff werde signifikante Umsätze generieren. Der Kurs kleinerer Unternehmen wie BioNTech und Moderna werde jedoch bei guten Nachrichten stärker springen ("jump"). Sollte einer der Kandidaten noch stolpern, oder ein klar überlegenes Wirksamkeits- und Sicherheitsprofil zeigen, sähe die Landschaft wieder anders aus. Bearish klingt anders. Der Autor, Keith Speights, hat fünf Sterne bei TipRanks und liegt dort auf Platz 60. https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/keith-speights Schließlich hat sich nach dem gestrigen Disaster seines Kollegen D. Risinger nun der Managing Director und Head of Biotech Research bei Morgan Stanley, Matthew Harrison, zu Wort gemeldet (5 Sterne bei TipRanks). https://www.morganstanley.com/profiles/matthew-harrison-research-biotech https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/matthew-harrison Die Sache war wohl doch etwas peinlich. Immerhin hat Morgan Stanley BioNTechs IPO geführt, und war dort per 30.6.2020 mit knapp 2 Mio. USD investiert. Ausserdem wurde dort erst vorletzte Woche ein Pfizer-Kursziel von 42 USD ausgerufen. Harrison hatte folgendes zu sagen (man beachte die Formulierung "weighed in" im ersten Satz): Morgan Stanley biotech analyst Matthew Harrison weighed in on the COVID-19 vaccine situation as timelines are drawn-out. Harrison believes COVID infections are lower in vaccine trial participants compared to the local populations at the clinical sites, which delays the initial interim analyses. That said, the firm still sees clear trial data in November. "We now assume trial infection rates are 50% lower than the general population, which delays the initial interim analyses by ~3 weeks," Harrison said. Harrison highlights that Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)/BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) has not yet accrued the 32 COVID infections for its 1st interim analysis. "The fact that Pfizer's first interim has not been triggered suggests the participants enrolled in the trial may have lower exposure to COVID-19 compared to the general population and/or reported COVID infections overestimating the rate of symptomatic infections," the analyst commented. "We adjusted our assumptions on the infection rate in the trials by reducing the locally observed rates by 50%. We chose 50% because recent studies have suggested universal mask wearing would cut transmission by ~49% and it appears trial participants are taking more risk mitigation steps compared to the local population." The analyst expects that both Pfizer and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) could provide 50-60 million doses of the vaccine by the end of 2020. "Pfizer CEO Bourla indicated that Pfizer has produced hundreds of thousands of doses so far and expects to have 30-40M doses by YE20," the analyst commented. "Moderna had previously commented that it expects to have ~20M doses by YE20. Thus we expect the initial EUA could cover 25-30M people in the US." MorganStanley hat also nun der internen Hochrechnung um 50% geminderte lokale Infektionsraten zu Grunde gelegt - die Probanden agierten offenbar überdurchschnittlich vorsichtig, und 50% sei nach neueren Studien etwa der infektionssenkene Effekt durch Atemmasken. [Ist auch ein schöner runder Wert, mit dem ich ebenfalls meine Zweitanalyse begonnen habe] . Dadurch verschiebe sich die erste Zwischenanalyse um etwa 3 Wochen nach hinten. [Erinnerung: Ursprünglich hatten alle hier mit spätestens dem 15.10. gerechnet. Plus 3 Wochen wäre also der 6.11. *)] Für 2020 erwartet ["expects" - kein Konjunktiv o.ä.] Harrison die Lieferung von 30-40 Mio. Impfstoffdosen durch Pfizer, und 20 Mio. von Moderna, an die US-Regierung. *) Nach meiner Modellierung mit MorganStanleys 50% Ansatz hätten bei 50% Impfeffektivität die 32 Infektionen am 23.10. erreicht sein sollen. Morgen lägen wir bei 70% Impfeffektivität, am 6.11. bei 90%. Inzwischen finde ich diesen Ansatz jedoch zu pauschalierend. Vor allem aber macht er Prof. Hubers "fast erreicht" modelltechnisch nicht darstellbar. Daher habe ich oben in der Antwort an Biotech eine andere, mich mehr überzeugende Herangehensweise skizziert.
Currently, BioNTech is trading at a trailing price-to-sales ratio in excess of 137, which is vastly higher than the biotech industry's average price-to-sales ratio of 6.88. This means that for each dollar of the company's sales revenue, BioNTech investors are paying $137, even though the overwhelming majority of other biotech stocks would cost them much closer to $6.88. If the market crashes again before its vaccine hits the market, BioNTech's bloated valuation will face a reckoning, and its current shareholders are likely to be punished."
Pfizer confirmed in its third-quarter update on Tuesday morning that it's still on track to file for FDA Emergency Use Authorization of BNT162b2 by the third week of November. Assuming that indeed happens, BNT162b2 seems likely to become the first coronavirus vaccine on the market in the U.S. (..)
The U.S. government agreed to pay Pfizer and BioNTech $1.95 billion to supply 100 million doses of BNT162b2 if the vaccine secures EUA. Moderna also won a deal to supply 100 million doses of mRNA-1273 (again, assuming it wins EUA) for $1.525 billion.
Both agreements include an option for the U.S. to purchase higher quantities. For Pfizer and BioNTech, the U.S. government could buy another 500 million doses of BNT162b2. The U.S. has an option to buy another 400 million doses of mRNA-1273 from Moderna.
If BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 were the only vaccines available, the chances that the U.S. would need to add to its initial purchases would be relatively high. Both of these vaccines require two doses, so 100 million doses of each would vaccinate only around 30% of the U.S. population.
It's important to keep in mind, though, that there probably won't be one single winner in the U.S. coronavirus vaccine market. Any vaccine that proves to be safe and effective will generate significant sales.
Multiple stocks could be winners as well.
Of course, there's still a real possibility that the coronavirus vaccine race could change in a bigger way. Should any of the leading vaccine candidates stumble in late-stage testing or demonstrate clearly superior safety and efficacy, the landscape will look much different than it does right now.