Every bubble is looking for a pin. Silicon solar (specifically) is a bubble.
NO. SOME BUBBLES JUST TURN INTO BIGGER BUBBLES
At least you're admitting this is a BUBBLE !
Here's why APV is a short:
1) You have 175 competitors
NO NOT TRUE.
YES it's true. Photon magazine May 2008 issue. That doesn't include over 100 competitors in Thin Films and 50 competitors making concentrators. You are facing ENORMOUS competition.
2) Arise is late to the party, the Chinese are taking over this market.
NO, NOT TRUE. THEY ARE TRYING DESPARATELY TO GET INTO IT BUT NOT MUCH SUCCESS.
Have a look at CSIQ, SOLF, STP, and about 10 other NASDAQ listed Chinese solar companies. I believe they all pretty much have a billion market cap each. NOT MUCH SUCCESS? Ehhh ?
3) Cheap solar is what's working, not hight efficiency 1X cells.
NO. NOT TRUE. THE HIGH EFFIICENCY IS WHAT END USERS WANT IN ALMOST ALL CASES.
Again YOU are wrong. End users want low cost per watt. High efficiency silicon 1X is the MOST expensive per watt. Besides, you guys only have 15% for the next year or so. Nothing to brag about anyway. SPWR has 23.6% aufmerksam
4) Thin films are going to $1.00/watt, Concentrators are going sub $1.00
NO,NOT TRUE. ONLY THE PRIVATE CO'S ARE SAYING THIS BUT THEIR TRUE COSTSARE NOT YET KNOW AND SUSPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THEY ARESUGGESTING.
Thin films are made by SPRAYING solar paint on aluminium foil, just like a newspaper. Their cost is (according to Nanosolar) is around $0.50 per watt. Compare that with making silicon panels.
5) Arise paid top dollar for their silicon supply, top dollar for their factory.
NO AGAIN. THE CO THEY JUST SIGNED FOR THE WLOO SI PLANT IS ONE SI SUPPLIER.
DOYOU THINK THEY NAILED THEM ON THE SI JUST TO TURN AROUND A COUPLEMONTHS LATER AND GET INTO AN INTEGRATED PARTNERSHIP/PURCHASE AGREEMENTWITH THEM. THEN IF SO ONE MUST ASSUME THAT ARISE STUCK IT TO THEM INRETURN FOR THE FAVOUR.
OTHER SUPPLY AGREEMENTS ARE CONTRACTSWHICH WERE PAID IN ADVANCE, EARLY PAYMENTS, LIKE RIGHT AWAY WHICHSIGNALS LOWER SI PRICES, DELIVERY DATES, ETC....SPOT MARKET PRICES ARETAKE AND PAY AND TOP DOLLAR, PAY IN ADVANCE AND TAKE DELIVERY SIGNALSLOWER ACCEPTIBLE MARKET PRICING.
You'll see how much of a bad deal the German plant and Wloo pants were in about a year or two.
6) Governments are involved. Governments usually get it wrong.
WELL, ACTUALLY YOU MIGHT BE RIGHT HERE.
BUTTHIS IS A CASE WHERE THE MONEY IS THERE AND ARISE IS USING IT TOACCELERATE THEIR PLAN SO THAT THEY ARE SUBSTAINABLE WITHOUT IT. WAITTIL THE LIBERALS RELEASE THEIR PLAN. IT WILL INDICATE BIGGER MONEY FORSOLARS MOVING FORWARD.
7) Arise meets only ONE out of the 20 rules of investing by IBD.
NO. NOT VALID. IBD IS FOR ESTABLISHED CO'S. ARISE IS JUST STARTING.
That's why you should not invest in such companies. It's sritcly a gamble. Good luck.
8) The large Canadian banking firms are shorting / manipulating it. It's to their advantage.
NONOT TRUE. I CAN GIVE YOU 40 MILLION BOUGHT REASONS THEY ARE NOT ANDTHAT THIS STOCK WILL BE 3 BUCKS BEFORE YOU CAN RECOVER YOUR MONEY.
How many times did I here your guys complain about shorting manipulating ?
LOSER.
Winner actually. Should I post my trades again ?
"Der dümmste Grund eine Aktie zu verkaufen, ist, weil sie sinkt"