DieTodeszahlen fallen ständig in USA
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/...jpg?itok=AYZfHW_aMeanwhile, as cases appear to be plateauing in several states, not only are deaths not inflecting higher but are at the lowest level since March.
So were most experts wrong that the surge in cases would also lead to a spike in deaths?
While we are debating that question, here's another one: back in late March and early April, consensus emerged that unless the first coronavirus wave is contained, it would result in an even more acute and deadly second wave. Why? Because both professional and armchair epidemiologists were using the Spanish flu as a case study as shown in the following chart from JPMorgan.
Now, according to Deutsche Bank, it appears that this comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu may have also been terribly wrong.For Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. ....
This, as the strategist then notes, therefore begs the question of how history will judge the lockdown response to Covid-19, given its much more limited impact on workers in the economy. In short, we have an interesting situation at the moment, where rapidly rising cases in the US are slowing reopenings (negative) but the death rate is falling (positive).
Here are some further observations conducted by another DB strategist, Francis Yared, which suggest that the second wave is far less serious than the media is making it out to be.
...Results:
The hospitalization rate has declined to ~20% by 10-15pp since the second half of April. This may be due to (a) increased testing and better quality of the tests capturing milder cases and (b) self-selection of the population taking risks (e.g. average age of new cases declining)
The hospitalization mortality rate halved to ~10% (last week's results scaled from daily to weekly deaths) since the second half of April.
The overall mortality rate (deaths over lagged new cases) is the product of the previous two calculations. Since the second half of April, it has declined by about 2/3rd from 6.5% to 2%.https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...everyone-wrong-about-coronavirus