Aber ob diese Liste ausreicht? Fundamental-Bären sind bekanntermaßen schlechte Markttimer.
Außerdem fehlt mir noch Leuschel, dann würde ich aber eher short gehen ;-)
Breakdown!
by Carl Swenlin
March 6, 2009
At the end of last week the S&P 500 had declined to and had settled on the support created by the November lows. It was poised to either rally and lock in a double bottom, or break down. On Monday prices broke down through support, and by Thursday's close it could be said that the breakdown was "decisive". When a breakdown is classified as decisive (greater than 3%), it means that chances are very high that the market will not be able to gather enough strength to rally back above the recently violated support. Reaction rallies back toward the support are possible, but not guaranteed.
The monthly-based chart below provides a better perspective of the seriousness of the breakdown, and we can also see the location of future support levels. The next support is at 600, at the low of the medium-term correction in 1996. I do not consider this an important support level. The first important support I see is the line drawn across the 1994 consolidation lows -- around 450 on the S&P 500.
The market is now very oversold in the medium-term and long-term, but in a secular bear market this is not a cause for rejoicing. Bear markets can crash out of oversold conditions.
Bottom Line: The S&P 500 has decisively violated important support, and the most likely consequence is that prices will continue to decline, with 600 on the S&P being the most obvious level for us to see a bounce of any significance. While we could see a bounce before then, I think we should be more concerned that the decline will accelerate into a crash. There are still investors who have endured the decline from the bull market top and who were hoping that the 2002 bear market lows would mark the end of the current bear market. Now that long-term support has been clearly broken, another round of panic selling could be just around the corner.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090306_break.html
Aktuelle charttechnische Betrachtung aus Corey Rosenblooms Afraid-to-trade-Blog. Kurz zusammengefasst sieht Rosenbloom im Sentiment noch keine panikartige Stimmung, ein nochmaliges starkes Hochlaufen des VIX, der P/C-Ratio und des Volumens würde evtl. auf eine mögliche Bodenbildung hindeuten. Für die kommende Woche prognostiziert Rosenbloom ein Retracement Swing Up, sollte dieses jedoch ausbleiben, so wäre mit panikartiger Stimmung zu rechnen. Interessant auch sein Verlaufs-Vergleich des aktuellen SPX-Charts mit dem aus dem Jahre 1937 (Similarities in 1937 and Today.), wirklich verblüffend.
What a week we just endured in the markets. Let’s take a step back now that the weekend is upon us to look at the Weekly and Daily Structure of the S&P 500:
It’s been an absolutely brutal and devastating past four weeks for investors - I cannot underscore this point enough. The S&P has fallen 22% in the last four weeks which classifies for its own definition of a “Bear Market.” There’s some good news though.
Within the (Elliott) Wave Structure, it appears that price is coming to the end of the final 5th Wave and that a rally may be expected to take place from here. Also, we see a positive momentum divergence forming as price hits new lows not seen since 1996. Fifth Waves often form on positive momentum divergences, so we are seeing this behavior conform to expectations. Volume is also at relatively high levels into these price lows.
For a full image of the proposed Elliott Wave Count on the S&P 500, see this chart (link) or the blog post entitled Similarities in 1937 and Today.
Let’s drop down to the Daily Chart to see if we can get any insights there.
S&P 500 Daily:
Well, let’s start with the positive. Price reached a new low beneath 700 on a Triple-Swing Positive Momentum Divergence (new low in October; New low in November; new low in March) which could arguably be classified as a “Three Push” pattern which is a type of reversal pattern.
Price also rallied sharply into Friday’s close which formed a Doji which is often seen as a short-term reversal pattern (technically, a doji represents “indecision” between buyers and sellers). Also, we are at the bottom of the Bollinger Band… but have been so since mid-February. In strong moves, price has a tendency to “Ride the Bollingers” up or down.
Volume is higher than average and certainly volume has been increasing as the year progressed… though that’s not necessarily a good sign, as we would see this as a ‘confirmation’ of lower prices through higher (trending) volume. There does not seem to be a “blow-off” or capitulation volume spike that is frequently seen at bottoms (reference October 13 and November 23, 2008).
In the short-term Elliott Wave structure, we appear to be ending - perhaps - wave (3) of (circled) 5 which - if the interpretation is correct - hints that we have a wave (4) to the upside (which could begin as early as Monday next week) which could take us to EMA resistance near 750 before a final wave (5) takes us back to new lows (or a test of the lows) wherein we might get the volume surge/capitulation and surge in the $VIX and Put-Call ratio that appear to be lacking as we form these new lows.
In other words, from a sentiment standpoint, it seems like this is not yet the actual bottom (there’s no panic as indicated by classical sentiment measures). We’d prefer to see a surge in the VIX, put-call ratio, and volume to feel like a bottom was put in place.
Let’s keep watching the structure develop, but it seems odds favor a retracement swing up beginning next week… but if we can’t even get that retracement… panic surely would set in.
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
Dazu hatte ich mal diesen Point & Figure Chart gepostet und von Splint gleich Kritik bekommen. Dabei habe ich den Chart gar nicht weiter kommentiert, dass muss man auch gar nicht, er spricht für sich.
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