Nach Analystenmeinung zu Trina Solar, wird die Nachfrage in Europa für Q1 höher gesehen!
Trina: Bachman Sees Upside In Q1 Europe Module Shipments
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By Tiernan Ray
Auriga Securities analyst Mark Bachman today reiterates a Buy rating on solar panel module maker Trina Solar (TSL) and a $41 price target, writing that his “industry checks” suggest that “the industry will be able to report better-than-expected shipment guidance into Q1, and that a few select top-tier solar companies will be able to guide shipments sequentially higher.”
Bachman has revised upward his estimate for Q1 photovoltaic module shipments to 315 megawatts, up from a prior 303 megawatts, with upside coming from Italy and the U.S. Bachman figures Trina can increase its module capacity by 10% this quarter compared to Q4.
Bachman’s estimate for Q1 is not going higher, however, as he’s concerned about declines in average selling price. He does note, though, that his estimates are above consensus: he’s modeling $523 million in revenue in Q1, and $1 in EPS, versus the consensus $485 million and 90 cents. Bachman thinks there may be upside if his caution about pricing turns out wrong.
More important, perhaps, Bachman responds to what he hears are reports of unused inventory in Europe, perhaps indicating some slack between supply and demand.
While we cannot disprove the notion that containers of modules are stacking up in European ports (like Rotterdam) […] we can offer the following quantitative metric to reason the importance of the data: 1 megawatt of modules requires 9 shipping containers. Thus, while we have heard reports of 250 containers at a single port, we reason that ~28 megawatts is insignificant to our 16 gigawatt installation estimate.
Bachman’s $41 price target values the stock at 10 times his 2012 EPS estimate of $4.09, as Trina deserves a premium to the 8 times average multiple of Chinese stocks given its leadership position, he argues.
Trina shares today are up 60 cents, or 2%, at $27.45.
