(8-Ball) Help me understand the Capitalization equation
www.boardpost.net/forum/index.php?topic=4077.msg41891#msg41891
Zitat jaysenese:
(8-Ball)
So CSNY has said he / she has run multiple capitalization scenarios and comes up with high potential stock prices for WMIH. I want to be sure I have the basic concepts correct. All of the numbers below are just wild guesses. Do I have the concepts right?
1. WMIH issues, say, $4B in notes or preferred shares. These are straight debt instruments carrying an annual interest rate of, say, 5%. Annual interest expense, then, is $200MM / year.
2. WMIH uses the $4B it raised to buy or begin a business or business that generate annual profits of, say, 10% a year, or $400MM year.
3. At the end of the year, WMIH nets $200MM in pre-tax profit after paying the interest they owe.
4. WMIH uses the stored NOL to basically pay no tax on the $200MM pre-tax profits, so their after-tax profits is also $200MM.
5. With 200MM shares outstanding, $200MM in after-tax profits means an EPS of $1.00.
6. Since the stock will trade at some multiple of its earnings, a PE multiple of, say, 15X means that WMIH stock might be trading at $15.00 / share at this time.
Is this basically correct?
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Zitat investorwad:
Depends on numerous factors including industry, but a PE of 15 is reasonable as far as the S&P stocks go.
Much would depend on what type of business WMIH gets into. See how little we know? How can one value or speculate on buyouts when we don't know what it is?
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Zitat drkazmd65:
That would be my take on the scenario as well.
The exact numbers (of course) would likely vary from those in your scenario - but the idea behind the numbers and how they might 'add up' appears sound.
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ZItat socauser:
Thanks for putting this out there. I, too, want to understand this scenario.
Wouldn't their total profit be $400MM (or EPS of $2.00) because of they essentially didn't pay any tax. The NOL's are worth something and by not paying tax as the years go by, they are working through the NOL's (value on one side) and realizing the value in yearly profit (value on the other side). In other words, as they avoid taxes, the value transfers from the NOL's to bottom line profit - thus a higher EPS.
Again - looking to the team for validation of the concepts here - not the number so much...
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ZItat jaysenese:
I don't think that's right. In my scenario they grossed $400MM a year. $200MM was spent to pay the interest on the $4B they borrowed.
That leaves $200MM pre-tax profit. Without the NOLS they would owe corporate taxes on that money. If we assume 35% taxes our EPS after taxes (comparable to all other companies' EPS) would be $130MM, not $200MM, or EPS of .65. At 15x PE our stock would trade at just $9.75 rather than $15 if the NOLs are utilized.
I THINK that's where the value of the NOLs comes in.
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ZItat distrojunky:
Jay,
What am I missing if I use your assumptions?
Company Description JAYS
Outstanding shares 400,000,000
Current share price(pps) $10.00
PE Mult 15.00
EPS 0.65
Purchase price $4,000,000,000
Earnings $260,000,000
Revenue $400,000,000
Tax Rate 35.00%
Under WMIH Ownership
Cost Capitalization(annual) $200,000,000
Interest for new Preferred 5.00%
WMIH Shares 200,000,000
Earnings Expectation $200,000,000
New PPS(Assume same PE) $15.00
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Zitat jaysenese:
I apologize, I'm not really sure what you are asking. Are you asking "Jay, you are not making sense. What am I missing", or "Jay, I'm trying to understand you, what am I missing", or "Jay, you forgot one very important thing. Here, I'll lay it out for you and see if you can figure it out?". Or ....?
I believe the question is along the lines "OK, I am trying to understand what you are saying, Jay. I think you're saying that if I make up an existing company, let's all it JAYS, and plug in some values taken from your assumptions, is this what we end up with?"
Let me think out loud (and remember, I am not sure at ALL that I am doing this correctly).
1. I think you've laid out JAYS correctly. What you call 'Revenue' I am calling 'Gross Earnings'. Your basic assumption here is that WMIH is going to buy an existing public company, although I personally feel that WMIH will buy some profitable unit of some very big company or, as was suggested here yesterday, begin developing a whole new business, perhaps in mortgages, or something else.
2. So, the day BEFORE WMIH buys JAYS, here's how they look:
*** WMIH *** *** JAYS ***
SHARES: 200,000,000 400,000,000
CASH: $4 Billion assumes -0-
DEBT: $4 Billion assumes -0-
REVENUE: -0- ?
ANNUAL COST: $200MM assumes -0-
GROSS EARNINGS -0- $400MM
NET EARNINGS : -0- $260MM
TAX RATE: 0% 35%
EPS: -0- 0.65
P/E: n/a 15x
STOCK PRICE: ? $10.00 / share
and the day AFTER WMIH buys JAYS, here's what WMIH looks like:
SHARES: 200,000,000
CASH: -0-
DEBT: $4 Billion
REVENUE: ?
GROSS EARNINGS $400MM
NET EARNINGS : $200MM
TAX RATE: 0%
EPS: $1.00
P/E: 15x
STOCK PRICE: $15.00
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Zitatende
MfG.L:)
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