Im Nachgang noch mal ein paar Gedanken zu den gestrigen Zahlen.
Der Kurs hat 2,7% verloren bei -2,4% beim Nasdaq, also waren die Zahlen mE quasi ein non-event. Für Q4 eine leichte Enttäuschung (aber mE gut erklärt durch das Management), bei der Q1 Guidance war man wieder absolut im Rahmen der Erwartungen. Den CC fand ich im Grundton eigentlich sehr positiv (einige Zitate s.u.), aber da die das immer sind, hat das nicht so viel Aussagekraft.
Knapfels Einschätzung, dass man hier einen 2-3 Jahre-Anlagehorizont haben sollte, teile ich völlig. Supply Chain, Huawei Opportunity, die US & Europa Subventionen, die Synergien durch den Merger - das wird sich alles nicht in den nächsten 1-2 Quartalen entfalten, sondern eher in 1-2 Jahren.
Zum EpS bzw. zur Garantie-Dividende sieht mein Verständnis wie folgt aus (S. 33 der Investoren PPTX):
51,5 Mio ADVA Aktien x 35% ausstehend = 18 Mio Aktien x 0,58 Euro Garantiedividende = 10,5 Mio Euro = 2,6 Mio Euro bzw. 2,8 Mio USD pro Quartal. Das vergleicht sich mit 24,5 Mio Euro pro-forma EBIT bei ADVA IN Q4-2022 und unterstelle mal, dass das ca. 18 Mio net income bedeuten würde. Das mal 35% ergibt ca. 6,3 Mio EUR bzw. 6,7 Mio USD.
Also meine Annahme ist, dass aus 6,7 Mio USD Belastung des EpS vor dem DPLTA durch den Abschluss des DLPTA in Januar rund 2,8 Mio USD geworden sind (also zukünftig bzw. für das nächste Quartal). Sehr Ihr das auch so oder verpasse ich hier etwas?
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“We continue to see strong bookings demand in the quarter.”
Zur leichten Umsatzenttäuschung bei Adtran in Q4: „The biggest kind of impact the thing that we didn't expect was we launched -- I have mentioned the 63 30, which was supposed to start shipping in Q4. It's now targeted towards the end of this quarter.“ bzw. “The gross was held back in the quarter due to delays in operations that resulted from introducing redesigned products to address supply chain issues and delays in 63:30 shipments.”
Zur supply chain: “On the supply chain side, the situation improves substantially when compared to a year-over-year. The outlook continues to improve and we expect this to be less of a headwind for the growth for our growth in the near future” und “So, compared to the 350 basis points for this past quarter, it was 260. So, roughly 2.6 percentage points of impact is still out there. So, you see it's going in the right direction. We expect it will continue to move in that direction, but it's not going away over the near-term quarters. So, I think there'll be -- there's going to be a hangover for a while there just of extra purchase price variation and cost that we have paid to secure components”
“Yeah. Well, you're correct about the book to bill, so we still have very strong order entry coming in. I think over the next three quarters, hopefully we don't know exactly. Some of these are down to, you know, you're missing one or two components, many times one component on a build material of 200 components. So those are getting better and better. Unfortunately, those ones where you're missing one are still probably the most problematic. So I would expect it to get materially better throughout this year. We're going to try to really -- we're managing and our focus is on longest lead, longest things in our backlog right now and really trying to clear those out. And then any customer impacting pieces, so that will get materially better through the third quarter I would think.” --> Klingt für mich nach einem dann sehr starken 3. Quartal.
“I'd mentioned in my notes that the 6330 got delayed to this quarter. Many of those customers are waiting on the 6330. That's our newest best differentiated really great platform that lot of these awards were premised on, so we have to get that out the door and we expect to be shipping that towards the tail end of this quarter.” --> Klingt für mich sehr konstruktiv für das 2. Quartal.
“We entered into a Euro, US dollar hedge arrangement to provide payment security of future Euro denominated payment obligations.”
Quelle: seekingalpha.com/article/...-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript
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