Original-Research: KPS AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: KPS AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu KPS AG

Unternehmen: KPS AG
ISIN: DE000A1A6V48

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 13.20 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Return to high double-digit margin level achieved. Further potential from internationalisation in sight.

The past financial year 2017/18 was characterised by costs of acquisitions as well as by falling revenues from a major customer. Thus, the historical momentum of double-digit growth was not continued and the EBITDA margin dropped. However, this development has already been reversed in the current financial year 2018/19. As early as in the first quarter of 2018/19, the historically high margin levels were achieved once again. We expect that this development will be able to be carried over for the full financial year 2018/19.

In the past financial year 2017/18, revenue increased by 7.4% to EUR172.22 million (previous year: EUR160.30 million). While a major customer was responsible for a drop in revenue of EUR18 million, this was well offset by revenue contributions from acquisitions (EUR19.5 million). In addition, new transformation and consulting projects contributed to the further increase in revenue.

In terms of profit, an EBITDA of EUR20.02 million was achieved compared to EUR26.41 million in the previous year. Thus, the EBITDA margin of 16.5% (FY 2016/17) dropped to 11.6% (FY 2017/18). However, in comparison to the previous year, the result quality improved as a result of a significant reduction in own work capitalised. Own work capitalised fell by 44.9% to EUR2.83 million (previous year: EUR5.14 million). The background to this development was mainly increased personnel expenses from the acquisitions. In future, however, this should be extremely positive for KPS, as the most important resource for a consulting company is staff, which are also generally difficult to obtain. Furthermore, thanks to the Spanish company, the average labour costs were reduced further, which should have a positive impact on margin development in the medium term.

The company's current guidance is EUR170 to EUR180 million in revenue and an EBITDA of EUR22 to EUR27 million. The guidance shows that the company is increasingly focusing on an improvement in earnings and less on revenue growth in the current year. Excellent results have already been presented in the first quarter, with revenues increased by 16.5% to EUR44.4 million (previous year: EUR38.1 million) and a vastly improved EBITDA, which rose by 100% to EUR6.6 million (previous year: EUR3.3 million). Accordingly, the EBITDA margin significantly increased from 8.7% (Q1 17/18) to 14.9% (Q1 18/19). Extrapolated for the full year, this would result in revenue of EUR177.6 million and an EBITDA of EUR26.4 million. Accordingly, the upper end of the guidance would be reached, provided that the following quarters are similarly positive.

For the current financial year 2018/19, we assume that revenue of EUR179.97 million will be generated and EBITDA of EUR26.47 million will be achieved. Our forecasts are therefore at the upper end of the guidance. We expect that, in the medium term, the cost burdens will continue to fall and that the cost-saving measures will take effect. Furthermore, in the long term, with the industrialisation of the consulting approach and the lower wage level in Spain, further economies of scale should be able to be achieved. On the basis of our forecast, we are increasing the stock price target to EUR13.20 (previously: EUR12.50) and we continue to assign it the BUY rating.  

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/17661.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 05.03.2019 (14:35 Uhr)
Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 06.03.2019 (11:00 Uhr)
Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2019

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.