der EIA ist heute veröffentlicht worden, wichtigster Auszug:
"Consumption.
World oil consumption remains weak because of the global economic downturn. Based on revised data and a re-estimation of the impact of the economic slowdown on oil consumption, EIA has reduced its forecast for world oil consumption from the fourth quarter of 2008 through the end of the forecast period. World oil consumption is now projected to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2009, a decline that is 0.4 million bbl/d larger than the decline projected in last month’s Outlook. The forecasts for Asia and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) show the largest revisions. In total, OECD oil consumption is expected to fall by nearly 2 million bbl/d in 2009, with oil consumption in Japan alone expected to fall by over 0.5 million bbl/d in 2009. Partially offsetting declining OECD oil consumption is a growth of 0.2 million bbl/d in non-OECD consumption, particularly in the Middle East, China, and India. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 0.7 million bbl/d in 2010, on the back of a rebound in global economic activity next year (World Liquid Fuels Consumption).
Non-OPEC Supply.
EIA has revised projected non-OPEC supply growth in 2009 upward to 100,000 bbl/d. Recent data indicate that production in the first quarter of 2009 was higher than expected in the North Sea, FSU, and Latin America, although much of the revision for Latin America reflects a re-evaluation of seasonal ethanol production in Brazil. Total liquids production from Norway and offshore United Kingdom was 140,000 bbl/d higher in the first quarter than forecasted from last month. Russia tallied a year-over-year increase in its oil production in March, the first such increase in the past 6 months and only the second such increase since November 2007. Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by a modest 45,000 bbl/d in 2010, due to increasing production from Brazil, the United States, and the FSU (Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth).
OPEC Supply.
The current weakness in global oil markets is driven not only by demand weakness, but also by additional supplies from both non-OPEC and OPEC members. Crude oil production by OPEC (including Iraq) in the first quarter averaged 28.7 million bbl/d, roughly 3 million bbl/d below third-quarter 2008 levels. In addition, production of other petroleum liquids outside of the quota system, such as natural gas liquids, is projected to continue growing. OPEC will meet again on May 28 to assess market conditions and production targets. EIA expects that total OPEC petroleum liquids production will average 33.5 million bbl/d for the year, some 2 million bbl/d below 2008 levels, and could reach 34.4 million bbl/d in 2010. Surplus crude oil production capacity in OPEC, which has increased from an estimated 1 million barrels in mid-2008 to 4.3 million barrels in April 2009, is projected to remain relatively high over the forecast period, exceeding 5 million bbl/d in 2010......"
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.htmlhier auf deutsch:
"WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Die weltweite Ölnachfrage wird nach Einschätzung der US-Energiebehörde im Jahr 2009 so niedrig sein wie seit dem Jahr 2004 nicht mehr. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr werde ein Rückgang um 1,8 Millionen Barrel (159 Liter) pro Tag auf 83,67 Millionen Barrel pro Tag erwartet, schreibt die Energy Information Administration (EIA) in ihrem am Dienstag veröffentlichten monatlichen Bericht. Damit revidierte die EIA ihre bisherige Prognose um 420.000 Barrel pro Tag nach unten. In den vergangenen 16 Monaten hatte die EIA 13 Mal ihre Prognose für 2009 reduziert./RX/js/he"
http://www.ariva.de/...im_Jahr_2009_die_niedrigste_seit_2004_n2970021