ZItat patience360...:
My Brief Comments on the Current Events
First, to sille, I'm here. Since the reply gets a little long, so I start a new thread.
Didn't read the full documents (both POR and DS) yet, so didn't make any comments so far. Besides, I'm not a number guy, I leave the number crunching game to others who are more qualified at it (I think this is the game of the time).
This case is complicated, and the interpretations of POR and DS will be very complicated too.We cannot do a reasonably good job of interpretation without the further or fuller knowledge of the settlement details. For instance, what will be the conversion rates? Or, a more definitive valuation of (both long and short term) NOLs and the usage of NOLs (a plan)? What are the value of Boli/Coli policies mentioned in the Plan 7? The total Boli/Coli is $5.1B. According to the Plan 6, JPMC gets the bulk of it (billions) while the Estate keeps a small fraction. So what does the language regarding BOLI/COLI in Plan 7 mean exactly? Also, whom the "anti-trust and business tort claims" are up against? We can guess, but these and other issues should really, and can only be addressed fully by the EC.
Initially, I intended to write a post urging the EC to do just that, making a PR outlining the key elements of the Plan with brief explanations. The EC chose to make some general statements via media about their satisfaction with the settlement. I'm now thinking they are doing the "PR" this way out of abundant prudence, and also because the mediation/negotiation are still on going. There are good strategic and tactic reasons for doing so (keeping mouth shut and low key). I respect the EC's decision. But, I do hope the EC can give equity holders a fuller summary of the key settlement terms between the next Omnibus hearing (12/22) and any date prior to vote. For the EC, it's a fiduciary duty. For a practical matter, we need to vote, and do so as informed shareholders.(Otherwise, how do we vote?)
I have written numerous posts on NOLs and NewCo since 11/2010. I know the EC has been putting their eyes on the reorganized debtors and potentially massive NOLs since at least 10/2010. At the 1st confirmation hearing, Ard cornered the debters' expert on the hidden NOLs, and the Judge in her Jan. Opinion left a door open for the EC to pursue this "lower hanging fruits" (NewCo and NOLs) even though we only saw the tip of the iceberg ($5B) at that time. Of course, Nate provided a potent weapon to help the EC to make this happen. It's a great achievement (equity near total control of NewCo and massive NOLs). Any recoveries beyond that are gravies.
I really think this and the coming weeks should be the time for the EC to come forward to enlighten us. Of course, I respect their decision and low key position at the moment. This is all I can say right now. I hope in coming weeks the negotiating parties will provide further details to help clarify the settlement terms.
Thanks, and Good Luck!
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Zitatende
MfG.L:)