für die nächsten Wochen und Monate.
"In the past month, the central bank boosted its key federal-funds rate target for the first time since 2018 and signaled its intent to begin reversing the emergency monetary stimulus it began in March 2020 to counter the pandemic’s effects.
The yield on the two-year note—the Treasury coupon most acutely sensitive to shifts in Fed policy—jumped a huge 112 basis points in that time, according to Bloomberg. The 10-year yield rose by 65 basis points, also a considerable increase in a relatively short span. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)
Historically, inversions of the two-to-10-year yield spread have been associated with recessions—five out of the past six, by one count."
Eine inverse Zinsstrukturkurve ist in der Regel ein Vorbote einer bald erfolgenden Rezession (grau im unteren Diagramm) einige Wochen bis Monate später. Nur 8% der Zinsstrukturkurven sind momentan invers im Vergleich zu >50% bei den anderen Rezessionen aber dennoch sollte man vermutlich momentan nicht gerade die größten Risiken eingehen.
www.barrons.com/articles/...yield-curve-inversion-51648849025
(Verkleinert auf 78%)