Neue Rakete von Herrn Ian Mc Donald ?

Posted on July 25, 2013 by Robin Bromby

Potash producers will maintain their discipline and good margins despite falling crop prices. And, as for rare earths, the greatest market will — notwithstanding patterns of growth — still be in the lights but it will be the heavies that make more money. These are among the predictions in a new report from Goldman Sachs, Mining Commodities: The focus shifts to the supply side.

The overall message in the report is that, as demand growth remains lacklustre, and several commodity markets move into surplus, the timing and scale of future supply response becomes the main decider as to when prices make their recovery. On the other hand, Goldman thinks the present cycle is near its bottom and some prices will have overshot on the downside. This report also contains comments on potash and rare earths.

In the short term, Goldman expects attempts by producers to exercise their bargaining power to try and secure higher prices will be met with strong push-back from buyers against a backdrop of a strong harvest, rising grain stocks and soft crop prices.

Looking beyond the current crop cycle, the analysts expect prices to average $520/tonne over 2015-17, equivalent to a ~70% premium over the estimated $300/tonne estimate of marginal production costs. Longer term, the emergence of new players is seen as driving prices to converge around $475/tonne.

But potash has done not too badly.

... as CEO talks up takeover prospects"

Peter Kennedy, Stockhouse  | 10 June 2014


On a day when its stock rose 20%, Stonegate Agricom Ltd. (TSX: T.ST) President and Chief Executive Officer Mark Ashcroft said he sees the company as a potential target for big players who are seeking a secure supply a phosphate, a key fertilizer ingredient.

Stonegate is working to develop its flagship Paris Hills Phosphate Project in Idaho. The aim is to have a mining permit by the end of 2014, a milestone that would set the stage of development of a one million tonne-per-year mine that is expected to cost about $140 million.

“We will have fully permitted reserves within the continental United States by the end of this year, with low capital expenditures and a proven mining method,’’ Ashcroft told Stockhouse during an interview, Tuesday.

“So absolutely we could be a [takeover] candidate.’’

Still, Ascroft said he couldn’t comment on the reason for the activity in the stock, which traded at 21 cents Tuesday, leaving a market cap of $40.8 million, based on 194.2 million shares outstanding. The 52-week range is 45 cents and 12.5 cents.

Brian Ostroff, the Managing Director of Windermere Capital, a Montreal-based private equity fund, which holds shares in Stonegate, said he couldn’t offer any reason for the stock price rally.
...

Ashcroft said Paris Hills is the highest grade Phos Rock project in the Americas. The company will extract the rock by entering the side of a hill and utilizing room and pillar mining methods. The rock will be conveyed to the surface and put in a storage location.