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Small Caps
Mining juniors overdue for a comeback
PUBLISHED: 03 Apr 2012 16:33:00 | UPDATED: 04 Apr 2012 06:52:38

Brendon Lau

"Small-caps stocks have enjoyed their best start to the year on record but the rally has left emerging resources stocks lagging far behind as the sector took the brunt of worries over a potential hard landing in China and the euro-zone crisis.

These fears didn’t do much to stop the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index from surging 13.9 per cent in the March quarter – its biggest gain for this period since records began back in 1990 – with the ASX Small Industrials Index racing ahead 17.2 per cent.

The ASX Small Resources Index underperformed with a gain of 8.7 per cent for that period; and it was the miners that struggled more as the materials index was the second worst performing group in the small ordinaries after the defensive consumer staples sector.

The negative sentiment towards resources appears overdone. Even though junior resource companies are often higher-risk propositions compared with their industrial peers, the wide gap in performance between small industrials and resources is difficult to justify.

Mining stocks are likely to play catch-up for the next few quarters as the market starts to unwind some of the overly bearish views on the health of the global economy.

Commodities do not even have to rally to spark a re-rating – they just have to stabilise. Most analysts rate the probability of that happening as high, with gold and copper prominent as key commodity picks among experts.

Tiger Resources (TGS)

This puts Tiger Resources in a strong position. Grant Craighead, a director of Lime Street Capital, believes the stock can double over the next year.

“It is hard to find a miner with copper deposits of any significance,” Mr Craighead said. “Tiger also has a self-funding strategy to expand. Its first phase of production is now hitting its straps and the cash flow from that phase will fund the next stage of development.”

However, the stock is struggling to bounce from last week’s 2½-month low of 37¢ as investors were spooked by teething start-up problems at its Kipoi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Political instability of the region is also weighing on Tiger. But Mr Craighead said that the miner had not only overcome production issues, but was producing copper above management’s initial targets.

The $C1.3 billion ($1.26 billion) takeover of Anvil Mining by Minmetals has also highlighted Tiger’s appeal. Tiger’s project is adjacent to Anvil’s and analysts believe it makes sense for the Chinese miner to swallow Tiger due to the synergies that can be gained.

http://www.afr.com/p/markets/market_wrap/...ck_hXkrq7kG9RLxIlMBnanS3I
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