Boah... Mal schauen wie lange das noch gut geht...
Shares of Chinese port operator China Merchants Holdings (International) Co Ltd (0144.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) surged 6.4 percent to HK$50.7, a day after its Shanghai affiliate said it will raise its terminal tariffs.
3968 CM BANK 32.3 2.05 5.97 910,910 27,706
BoComm and China Merchants Bank upgraded to ""buy"" from ""hold"" - DBS Vickers
DBS Vickers has upgraded its rating on Bank of Communications (BoComm) and China Merchants Bank to ""buy"" from ""hold"" after their prices came off their October-highs amid a volatile trading environment in recent weeks.
Shares in BoComm rallied sharply last month on a stronger-than-expected earnings performance. The stock has corrected more than 21 percent since then on concerns over the delayed ""through train"" scheme and further credit tightening measures in China.
China Merchants Bank dropped 19 percent from its peak in late October and its shares now appear more attractive, said DBS analyst Jasmine Lai.
The recent correction in banking shares is a good entry opportunity for long-term investors, Lai said.
""Value is emerging after the recent correction. The share prices have fallen 20 percent from recent peaks and valuations are very reasonable now,"" she said.
DBS has a a target price of 14.45 Hong Kong dollars on BoComm and 41.00 dollars on China Merchants Bank.
Shares in China's fifth largest bank, BoComm, were last trading 22 cents or 1.9 percent higher at 11.60 dollars, while those of China Merchants Bank, the sixth largest lender, were 5 cents or 0.2 percent higher at 32.20 dollars.
Mainland shares have been on the decline in recent weeks after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said implementation of the ""through train"", a scheme to allow mainlanders to invest directly in Hong Kong stocks, will be subject to the fulfilment of certain conditions.
The Hong Kong market also took a beating after China imposed a crackdown on underground banks in Shenzhen which were funnelling billions of dollars into the city.
""The delay of the through train program and the recent clampdown on underground fund flows from China into Hong Kong will only have a short-term impact on sentiment. We believe China's long-term policy to divert excess liquidity outside remains intact,"" Lai said.
Chinese banks have been asked to stop approving new loans in order to put a leash on inflation, but the move should not have any impact on mainland lenders who book most of their loans in the first half, Lai said.
Most banks met their full year loan growth target in the third quarter, she said.
The threat of more credit tightening measures from Beijing is looming large, but earnings at banks have been unaffected by the higher interest rates and increased reserve requirement this year.
China has raised its base rate five times and its reserve requirement for banks nine times this year.
""The last four rate hikes have been perfectly engineered by the People's Bank of China so there will not be much of a negative impact on banks' net interest margins,"" Lai said.
""In addition, banks still have the leeway to strengthen asset-liability management by shifting into higher yield loans and lower cost saving deposits on the back of a buoyant stock market,"" she said.
DBS has an ""overweight"" recommendation on Chinese banks.
CM 23,5h$ = -1,2h$ = -4,8%
China Merchants Bank up sharply in HK on Jan-Sept profit
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd was sharply higher in Hong Kong after announcing that it expects its net profit for the nine months to September to be up more than 100 pct from a year earlier, dealers said.
The stock was up 1.25 hkd or 3.22 pct at 40.05.
The mainland China-based lender said last night that it expects a sharp increase in its earnings for the January-September period due to several factors, including an increase in loans and interest spread and accelerated growth of non-interest income.
It also cited asset expansion as a significant factor for the earnings growth, while a reduction in credit cost and the cost-to-revenue ratio, as well as a drop in effective income tax rate, also helped.
China Merchants posted a net profit of 4.47 bln yuan during the January-September period last year, while earnings per share was at 0.31 yuan.
China Merchants Bank hits record high on expectations of strong 9-month
Hong Kong-listed shares of China Merchants Bank surged to an all-time high Tuesday after the mainland's sixth-largest bank by assets said it is expecting net profit for the first nine months to be more than double the 4.5 billion yuan it made a year before because of increased income from fees.
China Merchants Bank shares were last up 1.20 Hong Kong dollars or 3 percent at 40.00 dollars, off a fresh record of 40.15 dollars.
In a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange late Monday, the bank gave no profit estimate for the first nine months but said it will release detailed figures at a later date.
The bank is expected to release its January to September earnings on Oct 23.
""The main reasons for the improved result are that our asset scale has expanded, while the company has generated an increase in loans and interest spread, and non-interest income growth has accelerated,"" the bank said.
""The credit cost and the cost-to-revenue ratio have decreased. We anticipate that the effective tax rate will decrease,"" it said. It gave no details.
""We estimate net profit in the first nine months to be at least 8.937 billion yuan, or minimum 70.5 percent of our full-year estimate of 12.7 billion yuan ... potentially in line with, or slightly better than our estimates,"" said Ning Ma, an analyst with Goldman Sachs.
Ma said in a note to clients that the result was driven by steady loan growth, improved net interest margin and solid non-interest income growth.
Ma does not expect any ""substantial operating costs end-loading in the fourth quarter as the bank accrues costs/staff bonus on a quarterly basis.""
China's soaring economy is boosting the profit of mainland lenders, as the growing number of wealthy citizens gives them the opportunity to increase lending and sell more financial products and services.
China Merchants Bank made a net profit of 6.1 billion yuan in the first-half, more than double what it made a year before. Before the release of its first-half earnings, the bank forecast that profit for the period would probably rise 100 percent.
""This is broadly in line with our forecast,"" UBS Investment said in a report written by analysts Sally Ng and Victor Wang.
""Assuming third-quarter net profit accounts for 50 percent of our second-half net profit estimate of 7.16 billion yuan, we are confident of our second-half forecast,"" UBS said.
UBS will review its net profit estimate, price target and ""buy"" rating for China Merchants Bank.
China Merchants Bank was established in 1987 and has 467 branches in 35 major mainland cities, a branch in Hong Kong and a representative office in New York.
China's gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in 12 years.
CMB (3968, $21.4) 12M Target $28.75 BUY
CMB released 2007 results.
Net profit of 2007 grew 124% yoy to RMB15.24bn,
slightly higher than market expectation due mainly to higher tn NIM and fee income.
Fee income increased sharply thanks to strong growth in wealth management amid robust A-share market in 2007. However, we do not think such market sentiment to repeat in 2008 and the growth in this segment is likely to slow down in 2008.
Loan business in 2007 grew 22% yoy, which is much higher than the target of central bank. We think strong loan growth is unlikely in 2008 due to the central bank’s strict contraction of money policy. We therefore lower the forecast loan business growth rate for 2008 from 18% to 15%.
We downgrade our 2008/2009 earnings forecasts by 17% to reflect the change in growth rates for loan business and fee income.
In our view, the stock could continue to trade at a large premium to its peers, given its strong franchise and management quality, high prospective ROE and earnings growth. Nevertheless, we revise our target price down to $28.75,
representing 19x 2008 PER and 5.0x 2008 price/book ratio.
Merchants Bank 1Q Net More Than Doubled To CNY6.32 Bln
China Merchants Bank Co. (3968.HK) said Tuesday its first-quarter net profit more than doubled from a year earlier on an increase in both interest and non-interest income, and a lower income tax rate.
China's sixth-largest lender by assets said its net profit for the three months ended March 31 was CNY6.32 billion, up from CNY2.46 billion in the year-earlier period.
China Merchants Bank's outstanding loans totaled CNY703.46 billion at the end of March, up 4.5% since the start of the year. Its fee income doubled in the first quarter to CNY1.93 billion from CNY950 million in the year-earlier period.
China Merchants Bank soars in Hong Kong after saying H1 profit more than doubles
China Merchants Bank soared in early Monday trade in Hong Kong after the mainland's sixth-biggest lender said its first-half net profit probably more than doubled from 6.12 billion yuan ($892 million) a year earlier on higher earnings from its lending business.
"The profit forecast was more than the market expectation," said Yu Kei Lee, an analyst at Core Pacific-Yamaichi. "We have predicted slower earnings growth because of the deteriorating lending environment in China."
Core Pacific, which last month cut its rating on the Chinese lender to "sell" after it acquired a 53 percent stake in Hong Kong's Wing Lung Bank, was expecting net profit at Merchants Bank to expand 40 percent this year. Core Pacific does not make first-half earnings forecasts.
"There is a need to revise upward our profit estimate," Lee said.
Core Pacific is also raising its rating on Merchants Bank to "hold."
Last year, Merchants Bank's net profit rose 124 percent to 15.24 billion yuan.
Shares of Merchants Bank surged 6.1 percent to HK$24.25. The stock rose to as high as HK$24.30 earlier in the session, outperforming the Hang Seng Index which last traded up 1.3 percent.
Chinese top lenders are forecasting higher profits even after the nation's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has tightened credit regulations and increased the reserve requirement to a record level this year to cool the economy.
Last week, China's top lender Industrial and Commecial Bank of China (ICBC) said its first-half profit probably rose more than 50 percent from a year earlier.
ICBC was last up 1.8 percent to HK$5.20.
The mainland is widely anticipated to also increase its benchmark one-year interest rates in the second half of this year to bring down inflation.
Merchants Bank will probably be less affected from the rate hike because of its high deposit level, said Lee. Last year, the bank had total deposits of 943.53 billion yuan, up 40 percent from 2006.
Based on PRC accounting standards, CMB estimated that 1H08 net profit has increased by more than 100% yoy to at least RMB12.4bn, 5% higher than our expectation of RMB11.8bn.
The earnings surprise may come from non-interest income businesses such as credit cards, bancassurance and structured wealth management product sales. CMB has been one of market leaders in structured wealth management products to meet customers’ need for higher-yield investment returns. In 1Q08, sales of this segment reached Rmb80bn, compared to only Rmb100bn for full year 2007.
We have raised our earnings forecast by 4% to RMB23.1bn for 2008 with EPS growth of 50% to reflect stronger fee growth.
CMB underperformed its peers since the company has announced to acquire Wing Lung Bank (96). The recent correction has narrowed its PER premium against peers. We believe current share price is attractive for longterm investors.
The counter is trading at only 14.5x 2008 PER and 3.93x 2008 PBR that we think is attractive. We therefore upgrade our recommendation to BUY from hold. However, worries of austerity measures, uncertainty of macroeconomy and high CPI will cap its share price performance in near-term. In addition, we expect CMB’s yoy earnings growth to slow down in 2H08 due to the strong base in 2H07.
We tentatively revise down our target price to $25.7 from $28.75, representing 14.9x 2008 PER and 4.0x 2008F PBR.