Ausschnitte:
"This policy conundrum takes on added urgency in light of June’s horrendous trade deficit number of $55.8bn. Of particular note was that at $33 per barrel, the price of crude clearly did not reflect anything near current oil price levels, implying a further monstrous expansion of America’s external imbalances as the figures for July and August emerge."
$55,8 Milliarden (Juni) bei einem Ölpreis von $33! Der Preis für Crude notiert aber aktuell bei $43,18 - Tendenz steigend! Auf die Zahlen vom Juli/August bin ich sehr gespannt!
-und-
"The US economy, therefore, continues to be kept afloat by enormous foreign lending so that consumers can keep buying more imports, thus increasing the bloated trade deficits. This lopsided arrangement will end when those foreign creditors--major trading partners like Japan and China--decide to stop the lending or simply reduce it substantially.
It is well known that much of the source for that dollar buying today is the Asian official sector. As we noted last week, such huge purchases have prevented a calamitous fall in the external value of the dollar, which in turn has forestalled a private sector credit revulsion. Private sector creditors effectively view Asia’s central bankers as a bulwark against a precipitous dollar decline, given that their continued purchases of US dollars implicitly sanction the financial practices undertaken for decades by America’s monetary policy authorities and thereby ensure their perpetuation.
It is also true that central banks are not profit maximisers in the manner of a private business and are therefore perhaps happier to maintain the status quo – even if it means being repaid with devalued dollars – because the alternative is the loss of a huge export market and unprecedented financial instability, which central bankers abhor much as nature abhors a vacuum. To stop purchasing US dollars, it is said, risks the economic equivalent of embracing the nuclear option, a reckoning that could arrive as a sudden thunderclap of financial crisis—a precipitous withdrawal of capital a la Asia in 1997, which engenders a backdrop of spiking interest rates, swooning stock market and crashing home prices. Asia’s central banks, like US policy makers, may indeed recognise a self-interest in keeping the game going – avoiding a global meltdown that might ruin everyone."
hxxp://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp
"This policy conundrum takes on added urgency in light of June’s horrendous trade deficit number of $55.8bn. Of particular note was that at $33 per barrel, the price of crude clearly did not reflect anything near current oil price levels, implying a further monstrous expansion of America’s external imbalances as the figures for July and August emerge."
$55,8 Milliarden (Juni) bei einem Ölpreis von $33! Der Preis für Crude notiert aber aktuell bei $43,18 - Tendenz steigend! Auf die Zahlen vom Juli/August bin ich sehr gespannt!
-und-
"The US economy, therefore, continues to be kept afloat by enormous foreign lending so that consumers can keep buying more imports, thus increasing the bloated trade deficits. This lopsided arrangement will end when those foreign creditors--major trading partners like Japan and China--decide to stop the lending or simply reduce it substantially.
It is well known that much of the source for that dollar buying today is the Asian official sector. As we noted last week, such huge purchases have prevented a calamitous fall in the external value of the dollar, which in turn has forestalled a private sector credit revulsion. Private sector creditors effectively view Asia’s central bankers as a bulwark against a precipitous dollar decline, given that their continued purchases of US dollars implicitly sanction the financial practices undertaken for decades by America’s monetary policy authorities and thereby ensure their perpetuation.
It is also true that central banks are not profit maximisers in the manner of a private business and are therefore perhaps happier to maintain the status quo – even if it means being repaid with devalued dollars – because the alternative is the loss of a huge export market and unprecedented financial instability, which central bankers abhor much as nature abhors a vacuum. To stop purchasing US dollars, it is said, risks the economic equivalent of embracing the nuclear option, a reckoning that could arrive as a sudden thunderclap of financial crisis—a precipitous withdrawal of capital a la Asia in 1997, which engenders a backdrop of spiking interest rates, swooning stock market and crashing home prices. Asia’s central banks, like US policy makers, may indeed recognise a self-interest in keeping the game going – avoiding a global meltdown that might ruin everyone."
hxxp://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp