Der USA Bären-Thread

Wie ein Pleitier seit März 2009 immer mehr "wert" wurde (plus 5300 %) - BSE in Hochpotenz.

finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GGP

http://www.ariva.de/..._Anti_Rohstoff_Thread_t340852?page=1#jumppos29


Wenige Monate später war Öl von 147 auf 33 Dollar gefallen. Meine Prognose hatte sich voll erfüllt.

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Dass zwischen der Dot.com- und der Öl-Blase ein Zusammenhang besteht (wie ich in obigem Posting behauptete) und dass in beiden Fällen vor allem Goldman dahintersteckte, hat Matt Taibbi in seinem Goldman-Artikel explizit bestätigt. Hier die entsprechende Passage aus der gerade erschienenen deutschen Übersetzung:

"...Was die Angelegenheit noch weiter komplizierte, war der Umstand, daß Goldman selbst mit aller Macht Stimmung für einen Anstieg der Ölpreise machte. Arjun Murti, Analytiker für Goldman, der von der New York Times als „Öl-Orakel“ gepriesen wurde, sagte Ölpreise in extremer Höhe voraus und sprach von einem Anstieg des Preises auf 200 Dollar pro Barrel. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt hatte Goldman über seine Tochte J. Aron groß in das Ölgeschäft investiert. Außerdem gehörte der Bank auch eine größere Ölraffinerie in Kansas, wo sie das Rohöl lagerte, mit dem sie handelte. Obwohl das Angebot an Erdöl mit der Nachfrage Schritt hielt, warnte Murti unablässig vor Unterbrechungen in der weltweiten Ölversorgung.

Er ging dabei sogar soweit, allgemein bekanntzugeben, daß er selbst Eigentümer von zwei Hybridfahrzeugen war. Die Bank behauptete, letztlich habe sich der amerikanische Konsument die hohen Preise selbst zuzuschreiben. 2005 erklärten Goldman-Analytiker, daß der Ölpreis nicht fallen würde, solange „der amerikanische Konsument nicht damit aufhört, spritfressende Sport- und Freizeitvehikel zu kaufen und sich statt dessen nach energie-effizienten Alternativen umsieht.“

Aber es war gar nicht der Verbrauch von tatsächlich vorhandenem Öl, der die Preise in die Höhe trieb – es war der Handel mit Öl, das nur auf dem Papier existierte. Bis zum Sommer 2008 hatten Rohstoff-Spekulanten genügend noch zu förderndes Rohöl aufgekauft und gehortet, um 1,1 Milliarden Barrel damit zu füllen. Das bedeutete, daß die Spekulanten mehr Öl besaßen, das noch gar nicht gefördert war, als wirkliches, tatsächlich existentes Öl in allen kommerziellen Speichern der USA und der strategischen Erdölreserve zusammengenommen vorhanden war. Es war eine Wiederholung des Geschehens bei Internet- und Immobilien-Blase, als Wall Street die aktuellen Gewinne in die Höhe trieb, indem man ahnungslosen Kunden Anteile an einer fiktiven Phantasie-Zukunft von endlos steigenden Preisen verkaufte.

Nach dem mittlerweile schmerzhaft bekannten Muster schlug auch die Erdöl-Rohstoff-Melone im [Spät-]Sommer 2008 hart auf dem Straßenpflaster auf und verursachte einen massiven Verlust von Werten. Die Preise von Rohöl fielen von 147 Dollar auf 33 Dollar pro Barrel. Wieder einmal waren die kleinen Leute die großen Verlierer. Die Pensionäre, deren Fonds auf diesen Unrat gesetzt hatten, wurden massakriert. CalPERS (California Public Employees Retirement System), das Altersversorgungssystem der öffentlichen Angestellten hielt 1,1 Milliarden Dollar in Rohstoffen, als der Crash kam....


http://frank-meyer.eu/blog/...32&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

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Aktuell arbeitet Goldman mMn an der "Aktien-Erholungs-, Bond- und Rohstoff-Echoblase". Die Mechanismen sind die Gleichen wie in sämtlichen bisher von GS seit 1920 gepushten Blasen. Immer wieder gelingt es GS, die Anleger - darunter auch "große Fische" wie Pensionsfonds -  für dumm zu verkaufen und sich bei deren später unvermeidlich auftretenden Horror-Verlusten die eigenen Taschen vollzustopfen.

Meine aktuelle These: Der "Erholungs-Blase" wird in 2010 genauso übel enden wie die Dot.com- und die Öl-Base -und wieder einmal zählt GS zu den verlogensten Schiebern in vorderster Front..

Du hast aus lauter  Bescheidenheit den Griechen  die geometrische Folge zugebilligt, Du musst auch wirklich die  geo. Reihe nehmen ( grins ).

www.optimal-banking.net/2009/bank-of-scotland-pleite/#start

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Sunday he was confident there was enough political unity on Capitol Hill for the Senate to forge a strong financial regulatory bill despite differences over some parts of it.

"I believe that we are very close on this," Geithner said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" program, adding that Republicans and Democrats now agree on "the vast bulk of things necessary to end 'too big to fail."'

During the financial crisis that struck in force in 2008, taxpayers were put at risk because the government decided it had to bail out ailing banks and other financial firms for fear that not doing so would harm the broader economy.

Proposals for winding up or putting ailing big financial firms into bankruptcy have already passed the U.S. House of Representatives but have yet to come before the Senate.

A massive financial regulatory bill aimed at tightening oversight of banks and capital markets is expected to come to the Senate floor later this summer for a final vote after Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd steers it through his committee.

Geithner, who has spearheaded the Obama administration's efforts to persuade Congress to move on reforms aimed at preventing a repeat of the devastating financial crisis, conceded there were still some problem areas.

 

"We're not together on everything. I think on derivatives and on consumer protection, we're still some ways apart," he said.

"And we may not get there." President Barack Obama said on Friday he would veto any bill that did not impose strong enough controls over markets for derivatives -- financial instruments that derive their value from the price of some underlying instrument or event.

Regulators on Friday charged Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs with fraud linked to subprime mortgages, which drove bank shares and the broader stock market lower on the day.

Geithner refused to comment on the charges against Goldman Sachs.

He said there had been "catastrophic failures in judgment" by people who ran big U.S. financial institutions and the purpose of regulatory reform was to make sure they paid the consequences of their actions by themselves.

"Then taxpayers will not be on the hook for bailing out these large institutions from their mistakes in the future," he said.

Geithner went on to say that President Obama was taking steps to reduce the nation's red ink.

Geithner said that the president will extend middle-class tax cuts, but will not renew tax cuts that President George W. Bush put in place for the wealthiest Americans. The treasury secretary says that will provide about a trillion dollars in deficit reduction over the next 10 years.

He also says Obama has proposed a number of other measures to help close tax loopholes, such as overhauling the tax treatment of international companies and imposing fees on banks to cover bailout costs.

ähnlich Yves Smith bei naked capitalism:www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/sec-sues-goldman-for-fraud.html      A number of journalists and commentators (yours truly included) have taken issue with the fact that some dealers (most notably Goldman and DeutscheBank) had programs of heavily subprime synthetic collateralized debt obligations which they used to take short positions.

sehr schön hier:opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/16/...d-bet/?ref=opinion

Bloggers are also having fun depicting with a couple of e-mails sent by a Goldman executive with the priceless name Fabrice Tourre, who was at the center of the firm’s shenanigans. According to the S.E.C. complaint:

   Portions of an email in French and English sent by Tourre to a friend on January 23, 2007 stated, in English translation where applicable: “More and more leverage in the system, The whole building is about to collapse anytime now…Only potential survivor, the fabulous Fab[rice Tourre]…standing in the middle of all these complex, highly leveraged, exotic trades he created without necessarily understanding all of the implications of those monstruosities!!!”

   Similarly, an email on February 11, 2007 to Tourre from the head of the GS&Co structured product correlation trading desk stated in part, “the cdo biz is dead we don’t have a lot of time left.”

Not so fab, Fab, writes Elie Mystal at Above the Law: “Giving voice to thought is never good when you are fleecing the masses ….”

To insiders, Goldman’s actions were apparently an open secret.
....und Newsweek Michael Hirsch:“By naming the most prestigious firm on Wall Street and a world-famous hedge fund — Paulson & Co.— known for making some of the biggest profits by shorting subprimes, the S.E.C. has signaled that there may be a lot more indictments to come. And there ought to be. All indications are that, in the late stages of the subprime-mortgage bubble, the kind of alleged fraud identified in the complaint was far more common than is typically acknowledged.”

Hier und in einem Folgeposting liefere ich Links und Charts, die ein bezeichnendes Licht auf die wirtschaftliche Gesamtlage werfen.

www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-15/...r-european-demand.html

www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html

(nach der Klage gegen Goldman)

finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/...itholtz-says-yftt_469693.html

The suit also names Goldman V.P. Fabrice Tourre who helped create and sell the investment vehicle. "This was deliberate, corporate policy," not the work of a rogue employee, Black says.

Famed hedge fund manager John Paulson, who helped structure the Abacus deal and then shorted it, was not cited in the SEC suit. But it's like "the guy who owns the hurricane insurance on house is helping use crappier lumber to build it. So he made it pretty wobbly and then he bet against it," Ritholtz says.

Adds Ritholtz on Paulson: "He did something that's kind of sleazy. But I don’t see it as technically illegal. He let Goldman do all the illegal stuff.”

That's probably true, Black says, but Paulson “should have seen the disclosures. So if he sees disclosure statements by Goldman Sachs that he knows to be false, and that he’s going to profit from, he has a serious danger of being viewed as a co-conspirator. Now the SEC hasn’t chosen to go that way. The only individual named is small fry. That’s the major question here. Why is the SEC aiming so low in terms of individuals?”

Stay tuned for continuing coverage of this scandal.

Full disclosure: I edited Ritholtz's book and was paid for my contributions.


finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/...man-fraud-charges-469554.html

Wenn wir nicht relativ genau wüssten, dass Guido Westerwelle KEIN Naturwissenschaftler ist, so könnten wir vielleicht spaßeshalber darüber mutmaßen und spekulieren, dass sich unser derzeitiger Außenminister, der sich möglicherweise tatsächlich als eine Art "Metropolit" selbst bezeichnet bzw. betrachtet,  hier im Forum zwar relativ gut unter einem recht nahe liegenden Pseudonym bezüglich seiner vermuteten Selbstwahrnehmung verstecken könnte - aber trotzdem sehr leicht identifizieren lassen würde: als nach wie vor erkennbarer "eitler Geck" :-)

Irgend jemand von Euch hat hier mal kürzlich die m.E. wirlich sehr treffende Beschreibung vom "eitlen Gecken" bezüglich Westerwelle gepostet.

Aber außer Guidolein gibt es sicherlich noch sehr viele andere "eitle Gecken" auf der Welt. Sogar in diesem Forum habe ich schon einen entdeckt ;-)

Denn was all diese "eitlen Gecken" ganz besonders auszeichnet ist m.M.n. a) ihre Unfähigkeit überhaupt konstruktiv zu diskutieren (vor allem mit Leuten, die komplett andere Ansichten/Meinungen haben), b) auf jegliche Kritik mit extremer Dünnhäutigkeit und beleidigt zu reagieren, weil sie nicht mehr unterscheiden können, dass es nur um "eine  Sache, ein Thema" und NICHT "um die eigene Person" geht und  überdies hinaus noch dieses "beleidigt sein" dann c) in oftmals sehr unkontrollierten, aggressiven Wutausbrüchen - ohne jegliche greifende, konstruktive Argumentation - lauthals in die Welt - bzw. in das Forum hinaus schreien :-)

Auch ganz erstaunlich: Je weniger sie selbst zu sagen haben, bzw. auch - je weniger sich an konstruktiven Beiträgen und überhaupt an Beteiligungen in "ihrer Partei" abspielt, desto lauter geifern und giften sie gegenüber anderen Parteien, in denen man sich wenigstens (zumindest teilweise) noch sehr gepflegt, halbwegs gesittet, respektvoll und informativ austauscht :-)

Was den Guido, sein vermutliches Äquivalent und entsprechend mögliche, aber eher fiktive Parteien betrifft, so kann ich nur zitieren:

"Quamquam, sunt sub aqua, sub aqua maledicere temptant". ("Obwohl sie unter Wasser sind, quaken sie noch...) ;-)

Quak, quak und schlaft schön
Kosto

da fällt mir auf die Schnelle unser Verkehrsminister ein! Wer den heute gesehen hat und ein bißchen Sach- oder gesunden Menschenverstand hat, kann nur noch mit dem Kopf schütteln. Und solche Hampelmänner entscheiden über uns....kann echt nicht wahr sein!

Übrigens....30 Millionen jeden Tag, alleine für die Lufthansa! Heute aus sehr guter Quelle gehört...von den Auswirkungen auf den Rest der Wirtschaft mal ganz zu schweigen.

IWF sagt über vier Prozent Wachstum voraus

Goldman Sachs: „Räuberbarone, Vandalen und Geier“

http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...vandalen-und-geier;2563952

Goldman und der „King of Cash“

http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...d-der-king-of-cash;2563454

aus dem Wiki-Artikel zur SEC:

2009 wurde erstmals ein Leiter (CEO) der so genannten enforcement division  ernannt, der 29-jährige Adam Storch. Er war seit 2004 bei Goldman Sachs beschäftigt.[1]  Nach den Erfahrungen des Skandals um Bernard L. Madoff [2], bei dem gravierende Mängel seitens der SEC aufgetreten waren, ernannte der zur Behebung dieser Mängel eingesetzte Direktor Robert Khuzami Storch zum CEO für den Bereich Beschwerden, Hinweise und Wiedergutmachung an geschädigten Investoren. Seit seinem Amtsantritt hat Khuzami 40 % der Manager entlassen und im Gegenzug Personal zur Recherche eingestellt.[3]

de.wikipedia.org/wiki/...es_Securities_and_Exchange_Commission

und direkt von der SEC:

Washington, D.C., Oct. 16, 2009 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Adam Storch has been named to the newly-created position of Managing Executive of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement.

In his role, Mr. Storch will act as the Enforcement Division’s first-ever chief operating officer. He will report to Robert Khuzami, the Director of the Division, who created the position as part of a restructuring he announced earlier this year.

Mr. Storch will be responsible for project management and workflow for various infrastructure and operational aspects of the Division, including budget, information technology, and administrative services.  In addition, he will oversee the workflow and process associated with the collection and distribution of Fair Funds to harmed investors.  Along with Lorin Reisner, the Deputy Director of the Division of Enforcement, Mr. Storch will supervise the Office of Market Intelligence, improving the collection, analysis, risk-weighing, triage, referral, and monitoring of the hundreds of thousands of tips, complaints and referrals that the agency receives each year.

Mr. Storch joins the SEC from Goldman Sachs & Co., where he was Vice President in the Business Intelligence Group.

“Adam’s skill in technology systems, workflow process, and project management will greatly benefit the Division, including in the critical areas of the distribution of Fair Funds to harmed investors and the processing and analysis of complaints, tips, and referrals,” said Mr. Khuzami. “He will help to make us more efficient and nimble and permit us to put more of our investigators on the front lines to detect and stop fraud.”

Mr. Storch said, “I am honored to join the SEC at this crucial time. I look forward to working with the talented and dedicated staff of the SEC.”

Before joining Goldman Sachs, Mr. Storch was a Senior Consultant focusing on enterprise risk services at Deloitte & Touche, LLP. Mr. Storch is a Certified Public Accountant in New York State, a Certified Internal Auditor, and a Certified Fraud Examiner. He received his MBA from New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business, and his B.S. in Business Administration summa cum laude from the SUNY Buffalo School of Management.


sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-220.htm

jetzt kann man spekulieren, wie Herr Storch sich verhalten hat und verhalten wird.

gewesen.

Respekt! ;-)))

hier der Artikel im Original der IMF zu Strauss-Kahn Rede  January 18, 2010
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/NEW011810A.htm
The global economy is recovering from the international financial crisis faster than expected, but IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned that growth was still largely driven by government stimulus measures and countries risked a return to recession if anti-crisis measures are withdrawn too soon.
Speaking on a trip to Asia, which is leading the recovery, Strauss-Kahn identified several key concerns.
• Unemployment is still growing, posing the threat of social unrest and even conflict if not tackled.
• The risk appetite of investors is on the rise. While investors are still not putting capital into advanced economies, large sums are flowing into emerging economies, including Russia, Brazil, and emerging Asia, creating the risk both of asset bubbles or of a damaging abrupt halt in inflows.
Private demand still weak....er verweist auf den kommenden Report und der ist jetzt da.
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2010/spn1007.pdf  16.April 2010
vor allem ein historischer Bericht über Krisen  und sehr schöne Charts über unterschiedlichen Verlauf der Erholung
da sieht man mal wieder wie die Presse die Daten und Berichte verzerrt um etwas vorzutäuschen:
Die Geschwindigkeit der Erholung ist unterschiedlich in den Regionen,sie bleibt langsam in den fortgeschrittenen Ländern,Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt auch 2011 hoch,auch wenn sie sich bessert gegen Ende des Jahres
und hier Details des Reports:www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/RES041410A.htm
....given the sluggish economic recovery and the lingering effects of the global financial crisis, average unemployment across advanced economies is forecast to remain high through 2011, even though job creation is likely to pick up this year.
“The global economy is recovering from its deepest downturn since World War II, but the speed of recovery differs greatly across regions,” the study, published on April 14 as Chapter 3 of the WEO, says.

“For many advanced economies—where the financial crisis was centered—recovery is expected to be slow. In this context, persisting high unemployment may be the key policy challenge facing these economies as recovery gains traction.”.....

the analysis presages sluggish employment growth during the recovery. Beyond the potentially slow recovery in output, the nature of the recent recession—financial crises combined with house price busts—in several advanced economies weigh against unemployment moderating any time soon. Indeed, based on the current path of policies, the forecasts presented suggest that although employment growth will turn positive in many advanced economies in 2010, the unemployment rate will remain high through 2011. ......

und  hier  www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/RES041410B.htm
Global economic imbalances narrowed during the world financial crisis, but a strong and balanced recovery requires this narrowing be made more durable, a new IMF study says.

The study, released as part of the IMF’s flagship World Economic Outlook, examines how surplus countries can reduce their large positive current account balances.

“In economies with large external deficits before the crisis, most notably the United States, private demand is likely to remain below the precrisis trend as households repair their balance sheets, and a strong recovery will require an increase in net exports,” the study, released on April 14 as Chapter 4 of the WEO, says.

“For surplus economies facing weaker demand from deficit economies, the challenge is to rebalance growth from external sources to domestic sources and to run smaller surpluses in the future. Together, these two adjustments could promote a strong and balanced global recovery.”......

Es wäre allem Anschein nach eine günstige Gelegenheit in Shorts einzusteigen. Asien war am Freitag schwach und zeigt sich nach dem kleinen Abverkauf an der WallStreet heute wieder extrem negativ. Die Vola ist so gering, ein Einstieg in normale OS ist relativ günstig zu haben.
Unser DAX zeigt "wie so oft" keinerlei Eigenleben. Die Vorgaben aus Asien interessieren nicht. Einzig und allein die US Futures werden im DAX abgebildet. So ist eine Einflussnahme auf den DAX relativ preiswert zu haben. Somit bleibe ich vorsichtig und lasse die Finger noch von Shorts und Puts.

Permanent

The Abacus transaction cited in the S.E.C. case is just one of 25 such securities worth $10.9 billion that Goldman issued during the mortgage mania....

Because the government has committed so much money to A.I.G., Representatives Elijah E. Cummings, Democrat of Maryland, and Peter DeFazio, Democrat of Oregon, are asking the S.E.C. to investigate all the Abacus deals issued by Goldman, and especially those insured by A.I.G.

The congressmen want regulators to determine whether fraudulent conduct by the investment firm contributed to billions of dollars in losses. If such conduct is found, the congressmenare urging the S.E.C. to recoup payments made by A.I.G. to Goldman.
www.nytimes.com/2010/04/19/business/19investors.html?ref=global

Für die Bankenbranche insgesamt sind solche Vorwürfe natürlich Gift. In der geplatzten Spekulationsblase des neuen Marktes wurde viel Vertrauen (und Vermögen) verspielt. In der immer noch schwelenden Finanzkrise wurde man endgültig zur Lachnummer (wenn es nicht so traurig wäre). Die jüngsten Bemühungen, das Vertrauen der Anleger zurückzugewinnen, erhalten mit solchen Vorfällen wieder einen schweren Rückschlag, obwohl hier Sippenhaft und Verallgemeinerungen sicher nicht angebracht sind. Hoffen wir, dass sich solche Vorfälle nicht häufen und dass die Mehrheit der Finanzinstitute aus ihren Fehlern etwas gelernt hat. Dem aufmerksamen Marktbeobachter kommen da leider einige Zweifel.

http://www.investor-verlag.de/newsletter_archiv/dd/10106587/

www.nytimes.com/2010/04/19/business/19goldman.html?hp
.....According to these people, executives up to and including Lloyd C. Blankfein, the chairman and chief executive, took an active role in overseeing the mortgage unit as the tremors in the housing market began to reverberate through the nation’s economy. It was Goldman’s top leadership, these people say, that finally ended the dispute on the mortgage desk by siding with those who, like Mr. Tourre and Mr. Egol, believed home prices would decline. .....

By early 2007, Goldman’s mortgage unit had become a hive of intense activity. By then, the business had captured the attention of senior management. In addition to Mr. Blankfein, Gary D. Cohn, Goldman’s president, and David A. Viniar, the chief financial officer, visited the mortgage unit frequently, often for hours at a time.

Such high-level involvement was unusual elsewhere on Wall Street, where many executives spent little time learning the workings of their mortgage businesses or how those businesses might endanger their companies.

The decision to get rid of positive bets on mortgages turned out to be prescient. Unlike most other Wall Street banks, Goldman profited from its mortgage business as the housing bubble was inflating and then again when the bubble burst.

At the heart of all of this is the mortgage trading unit that, at its peak, employed several hundred people. As recently as 2007, Goldman’s mortgage division was split into 11 subgroups, each with a specialty, according to an internal Goldman document that was provided to The New York Times by a former employee. ....

One group, for instance, handled actual home loans. Another provided mortgage advice. A third syndicated loans among banks. And still another handled commercial real estate.
During the boom, Goldman’s mortgage unit was a leader on Wall Street. In 2006 alone, the bank underwrote $26 billion of collateralized debt obligations, according to Dealogic, a financial data provider. Many C.D.O.’s have since turned out to be bad investments.

But in 2006, some inside Goldman began to worry about the fragile state of housing. Daniel L. Sparks, the Texan who ran the mortgage unit, sided with those who believed the market was safe. Two of his traders, Joshua S. Birnbaum and Michael J. Swenson, had placed a big bet that mortgage bonds would rise in value.

But this camp clashed with Goldman sales staff who were working with hedge funds that wanted to bet against subprime mortgages. Mr. Birnbaum told the team to stop promoting bets against some mortgage investments since such trades were hurting the market and Goldman’s own position, according to two former Goldman employees.

But a few desks away, Mr. Tourre and Mr. Egol were quietly working on the Abacus deals. ....What united them was an unusually negative view on the mortgage market. As far back as 2005, they clashed with Goldman traders who worked with big mortgage lenders like Countrywide to buy and package loans. Their Abacus deals included insurancelike protection that would pay out if certain mortgage bonds soured. Such credit-default swaps were not worth much in 2005, when housing was flying high, but became highly valuable once the market sputtered.

“Egol and Fabrice were way ahead of their time,” said a former Goldman worker. “They saw the writing on the wall in this market as early as 2005.” ...Their view was that if one group of mortgages or mortgage bonds ran into trouble, the entire market might falter.

Goldman’s top ranks changed its stance on housing in December 2006. In a meeting in a windowless conference room on the executive floor, Mr. Viniar, the chief financial officer, and Mr. Cohn, the president, gathered about 10 executives for a briefing. Mr. Sparks, the head of the mortgage unit, walked them through the numbers. The group was unanimous: Goldman had to reduce its exposure to the increasingly troubled mortgage market.

....The executives told Mr. Sparks to tell his traders to sell Goldman’s positive bets on housing. The traders’ short positions — that is, negative bets, mostly used to hedge other investments — were placed in a central trading account.
Goldman turned over all these negative positions to Mr. Swenson and Mr. Birnbaum, the traders who had previously been positive on the market. Along with Mr. Sparks, they have been credited for managing the short position that yielded a $4 billion profit for Goldman in 2007. Mr. Sparks retired in 2008. Mr. Birnbaum also left in 2008, to start his own hedge fund.

But former Goldman employees said those traders benefited from the short positions that were given to them. And their trading was tightly overseen by senior executives.

Meantime, Goldman managers instructed Mr. Egol in early 2007 to add insurance against mortgage bonds.

By the third quarter of 2007, the mortgage unit was minting money, while Goldman’s rivals were losing big.....