*ggg* - mein Beitrag zur heutigen "Verschwörungstherorie-Debatte"
___________________________
Are Pig Farmers Doing All The Trading?
"The Top Five Prop Desks Are Buying And Selling Securities With Leverage ... To Each Other!"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2010
A suitable follow up to our earlier post on domestic equity fund flows (which have been negative year to date), and our conclusion that Primary Dealers are merely taking advantage of the ZIRP carry trade, is Rosie's observation that the only entities doing any relevant trading are the prop desks of the Big Five TBTFs. If that is indeed the case, the market, which Rosenberg concludes optimistically is 25% overvalued will certainly face a Black Monday-type correction as soon as the elusive "unpredictable" occurs and the Prop desks as always scurry for cover, with no volume consolidation to the upside. It would be such a wonderful time to truly implement the Volcker Rule as the bank's prop desks, if David is correct, are about to cause some major damage to the market... Of course, it is these very prop desks that are the staunchest opposition to the Volcker Rule and its negative implication on prop trading.
From David Rosenberg and Gluskin-Sheff:
Well, well, the theory that the stock market has turned in a double top may not have gone the way of the Dodo after all, following the reversals we saw in the last two trading days of last week. Negative reversals and distribution days in three of the last six sessions is something to be concerned about if you are long this market — and volume remains tepid at best.
The market is now overvalued by over 25% but is also extremely overbought having gone 24 sessions without a decline of 1% or more, and 89% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages (see page M3 of Barron’s). The Dow has advanced in 17 of the past 21 days. I mean, even if you are bullish on the outlook, one would have to admit that such a parabolic move is vulnerable to at least a modest pullback… or more. I know what a broken record sounds like and this has been a confounding and confusing market — for both the bears and many (though not all) of the bulls.
Looking at the fund flows, there is only one conclusion that can be reached: This market is being driven by pig farmers. Retail inflows may have picked up of late, but only fractionally. The focus on the part of the individual investor remains on the fixed-income market, for better or for worse (better from our standpoint, worse from the standpoint of my friend and fellow debater Jim Grant).
Institutional portfolio manager cash ratios are back to the rock bottom levels of around 3½% — where they were back at the market peak in October 2007. The shorts have all but been covered. Foreign investors have been few and far between, based on the latest TICS data. The lack of volume speaks volumes — there are no sellers. Investors of all types have been content to just sit and watch their equity position expand via the price appreciation, but there is scant evidence of any follow-through this year in terms of volume buying.
So, that leaves me with a suspicion that the entities doing the buying are the pig farmers. Who are they pray tell? They are the prop desks at the five large banks. They buy and sell securities, with leverage ... to each other! And, these transactions often occur late in the day or in the futures pit after the market closes. There is no sign of any other buyer out there, including the Fed who has been too busy choking on mortgage backed securities and Maiden Lane assets. To repeat, that is why the volumes have been so low.
What we should be aware of about the pig farmers is that they could, at any time, flick the switch in the other direction. What the “trapped longs” may be forced to do — the ones that have been sitting on their hands and have been waiting for the bear market rally to take their portfolio back to where it was at the peaks — at that point is start to sell. That is when the volume picks up ... and accelerates the downside pressure
(...)
www.zerohedge.com/article/...uying-and-selling-securities-leve
(darin auch der link zum "Lunch With Dave"-PDF)
Die Würde des Steuerzahlers ist unantastbar