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Na ja, von Inflation keine Spur.
Das US-Arbeitsministerium erklärte, der Verbraucherpreis-Index sei im Mai um 0,1 Prozent gestiegen, nachdem er im April noch unverändert notiert hatte. Erwartet hatte der Markt allerdings eine Steigerung um 0,3 Prozent. Im Vergleich zu, Mai 2008 fielen die Verbraucherpreise um 13, Prozent und damit so stark wie zuletzt 1950.
Tim Melvin, street.com
Bank Downgrade
6/17/2009 1:05 PM EDT
Just saw on the wire that Standard & Poor's has cut ratings on 18 U.S. banks. Four of them, including Huntington (HBAN) were reduced to junk credit ratings. The ratings agency commented that loan losses could continue to grow and exceed current expectations. Increased regulatory risk was also cited as reason for concern. Wells Fargo (WFC), Regions Financial (RF) and Capital One (COF) were among those who saw their credit ratings reduced.
The report also addressed something that I have been talking about for months: The financial industry is undergoing a dramatic transformation with permanent consequences. We have no idea what the business model for banks is going to look like when all the new rules and regulations are put in place.
I would avoid any bank that was not in the" eat your own cooking" camp. Questions about funding and securitization make the outlook cloudy at best.
Changing Character
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
6/17/2009 4:23 PM EDT
After two days of selling, the S&P 500 did an almost perfect bounce off its 200-day simple moving average around 906. Unlike many of our prior bounces, the buying today didn't possess much vigor. The shorts weren't squeezed this time, and the momentum chasers didn't rush to join the charge. It just looked like a pretty standard oversold bounce, and we even fizzled in the final hour and ended up with a flat day for the indices.
As I've been saying, the best test of whether or not this market is ready to roll over harder will come on a bounce attempt. If the dip-buyers weren't as aggressive and the shorts had more confidence, then we'd we should be looking for some downside in the near term. The evidence today seems to suggest that this is the case.
I'm not going to be overly bearish, but I'm increasingly convinced that we are undergoing a change in market character. I'm going to be much more inclined to sell into and/or short into strength going forward. I don't think the market will be anywhere nearly as bad as it was back in February, but if we are going to go long, we'll have to be much more selective with sectors and stock picks.
Seltsam, vor einigen Tagen hieß es noch, in GB stehe überraschend die Wende bevor. Nun wird die Überraschung selber überrascht, und zwar von einer Überraschung höherer (Un-)Ordnung.
Jun 18, 2009, 4:34 a.m. EST
British May retail sales post steep fallLONDON (MarketWatch) -- British retail sales volume tumbled 0.6% in May, leaving sales 1.6% below the level seen in the same month last year, the Office for National Statistics reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had produced a consensus forecast for a 0.6% monthly rise and unchanged year-on-year sales.
www.marketwatch.com/story/...-may-retail-sales-post-steep-fall
http://www.ariva.de/Anti_Lemming_t283343?pnr=5995242#jump5995242
Zurückgreifend auf mein gestriges Posting zum Vorteil einer Leitwährung.
Die Deflation ist in den USA nach meiner Auffassung im Inland sehr leicht durch Protektionismus zu vermeiden. Das strukturelle Außenhandelsdefizit zeugt von einer zu geringen inländischen Erzeugung im produzierenden Gewerbe. Durch die Abschottung würden die inländischen Kapazitäten in vielen Bereichen nicht den gesamten inländischen Bedarf decken somit käme es durch künstliche Verknappung der Kapazitäten zum Engpässen in der Versorgung und im Gefolge dessen zu Inflation.
Möglichkeiten gibt es viele. Die Frage ist, welche Wege beschritten werden sollen und welche zum langfristigen Erfolg führen.
China beschreitet den Weg des Protektionismus, für China viel gefährlicher als für die USA, da Überkapzitäten bestehen.
Permanent
Interessante Zahlen, aber teils äußerst widersprüchliche - um nicht zu sagen hinrissige - Folgerungen...
Market Commentary
Forever Indebted
By Vincent Farrell Jr.
6/18/2009 5:00 AM EDT
Street.com
Household debt is "down" to 130% of disposable income. "Down" is a relative term. It was 134% recently. But it was half the current level as recently as the mid-1980s. Total debt in the U.S. (all debt including the government) stands at about 360% of gross domestic product. It was 155% in 1980.
Another way to slice the debt overview is to look at non-financial debt (take the banks' debt and so forth out) and that is 240% of GDP. The Eurozone is also at about that level and Japan is at something like 450% of GDP. But that economy has been down for a long time, so I take no comfort that we are better off.
Let's look at household debt for a moment. Disposable personal income is close enough to $11 trillion that we can use that as a number. If household debt were to retreat to, say, 100% of income, it would be a retrenchment of a good bit over $3 trillion. That would be one big bite out of consumer expenditures.
I have no idea where this debt to income will or should go. Things tend to revert to the norm over time, and if we were in the 70% range in the 1980s, I don't think returning to 100% is a crazy view. If the savings rate were to return to its 70-year average of 9%, that would chip in almost $1 trillion a year. Savings might not go to pay off debt, but, from a total balance sheet overview, we could balance one against the other.
If all else stayed equal (which of course it won't), it would take several years to get back to 100%. Not a joyful prospect for a booming economy led by the consumer, but I don't think any of us believe the consumer is going to be a driving force in any recovery. [Wer dann sonst, wenn 70 % der US-Wirtschaft vom Konsum abhängt? - A.L.]
What might be a driving force would be inventory restocking. [Wer soll denn die aufgestockten Lagerbestände kaufen? - A.L.] I mentioned yesterday that industrial production was down again, which means there is no inventory build at all [aus gutem Grund - A.L.] and inventory liquidation instead. If final demand started to pick up [wie das, ohne Konsumenten? - A.L.], there would be a need to increase production quickly.
New York City has balanced its budget with the aid of federal stimulus dollars. But the smoke and mirrors employed also revealed a rise in the sales tax and a reduction in the work force. How does the use of stimulus dollars in this sense stimulate? Taxes are up and employment down. I don't get it.
Only about $50 billion or so of the total stimulus package of $787 billion has been spent and there is a lot of enthusiasm that, when the rest gets spent, the economy will prosper. But if it non-stimulates like this, we are in for a reassessment.
...
I would note that in the 1930s, the economy (and the market) recovered significantly from 1933 to 1937. In 1937 we raised interest rates and, as important, raised the marginal tax rate to 90%! The call for a rise in the Fed Funds rate and a move to tax those evil rich folk has an uncomfortable historical ring to it.
Wednesday's market went below the 200-day moving average at 908 and predictably fought to stay above it. I am guessing that there will be some resistance at this level, but the weight of the evidence lends itself to a continued correction.
- trotz des starken Preisverfalls um ca. ein Drittel seit den Höchstständen in 2005. Die Überbewertung um den Faktor 2 gilt für Häuser in US-Küstenregionen. In Detroit wird's billiger...
US-Häuser sind nach herkömmlichen Value-Kriterien (unten) immer noch viel zu teuer. Historisch galten Hauspreise als "fair", wenn die Hypothek nicht höher war als drei Jahreseinkommen (aktuell in US-Küstenregionen immer noch sechs) und der Kaufpreis für das Haus nicht höher war als 15 Jahresmieten (aktuell in den US-Küstenregionen immer noch 30 Jahresmieten).
Fazit: Einer weiteren Halbierung der Hausverkaufs-Preise steht nichts entgegen. Es könnte danach aber auch noch zu einer Übertreibung nach unten kommen.
House prices will keep falling in most places because those prices are still dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's yearly income. Landlords say a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the tenant's yearly rent. Yet in coastal areas, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times their income, and sellers are still asking 30 times annual rent, even after recent price declines. Renting is a cash business that reflects what people can really pay, not how much they can borrow. Salaries and rents prove that prices will keep falling for a long time. Anyone who bought a "bargain" this time last year is already sitting on a very painful loss.
patrick.net/housing/crash.html
(Link stammt von fkuebler, # 44980)
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