Der USA Bären-Thread

www.bloomberg.com/apps/...sid=anA.WOxto6qQ&refer=exclusive
April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Millions of lost jobs mean billions in lost tax revenue for the U.S. government, and billions in additional Treasury debt to fund a federal budget deficit that may soar to more than four times last year’s record $454.7 billion.

Employers cut 3.7 million positions from their payrolls in the six months since the fiscal year began Oct. 1, and the unemployment rate reached a 25-year high of 8.5 percent in March. That suggests receipts for April -- the biggest month for tax collection -- are likely to come in well below April 2008, analysts said.

With spending on unemployment insurance and other safety- net programs rising, the deficit is already at a record $956.8 billion six months into the fiscal year. To help close that gap, the Treasury Department has more than quadrupled borrowing, pushing the government deeper into debt.
“Tax receipts are just collapsing,” said Chris Ahrens, head of interest-rate strategy at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, one of 16 primary dealers required to bid at Treasury auctions. The need to sell more debt “is a big issue in the Treasury market and it is ongoing. The surging budget deficit is the primary cause.”

The government will have to sell $2.4 trillion in new bills, notes and bonds in fiscal 2009, according to UBS......

aus dem Coincident Indicator der Philly Fed;
Jeder einzelene Staat in der Rezession:

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. government support for the banking system has risen to 1.4 trillion pounds ($2 trillion) and may climb higher as the financial crisis spreads to building societies and economists warn lenders may need more aid. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government yesterday offered to guarantee some mortgage-backed bonds, adding as much as 50 billion pounds to the bailout that began with the collapse of Northern Rock Plc in 2007.The amount invested in, loaned to or pledged to back bank assets now equals Britain’s gross domestic product, or 22,800 pounds for every person in the U.K. ......
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a40SR8MwXKjE

auch die 3-Monatssichtweise dazu:

318 Milliarden EUR geplante Gilts
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K.’s plan to sell a record 220 billion pounds ($318 billion) of gilts this year to revive the economy may cause investor “indigestion,” according to some of Britain’s biggest bond traders.

The amount, 50 percent more than the 146.4 billion pounds sold in the fiscal year that ended March 31, may be too much for the market to absorb, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The issuance plan, announced by the London-based Debt Management Office yesterday following the government’s budget report, is a “surprise,” according to Barclays Capital.

“The scope for bouts of indigestion going forward is high,” Richard McGuire, a senior fixed-income strategist in London at RBC Capital Markets, said in an e-mailed report. “In terms of the market’s ability to absorb this supply, the key is whether the budget presents a credible road map toward fiscal sustainability and here we would argue it is lacking.” ......www.bloomberg.com/apps/...p;sid=aeJL2HXp_MFA&refer=economy

"Warum sollen wir das Rad neu erfinden", "Die anderen machen es doch auch", "Seit 1946 ist es immer aufwärts gegangen".
Das sind Sprüche, die man vor dem Ausbruch der Subprime-Krise gehört hat, die aber fast jeder irgendwie aus seinem Berufs- oder auch Privatleben kennen dürfte.
Als in derr FAZ schon vor Jahren immer das mögliche Platzen der Subprime-Blase diskutiert wurde, kam immer der Einwand: "Seit 1946 sind in den USA noch niemals die Immobilienpreise gesunken." Mit derartigen oben angeführten "Totschlagargumenten" dürften auch intern die Diskussionen erstickt worden sein. Meine Achtung gebührt dshalb der NordLB, die sich wohl kaum in den Subprime-Sumpf verstickt hat.
Aber: Es war schon immer einfacher, "ja" zu sagen, als auf Risiken hinzuweisen. Hinzu kommt, dass von dem Jubel, dem Geldsegen, der gesellschaftlichen Achtung und den Karrieresprüngen, die bis zum Jahr 2007 die vermeintlich Erfolgreichen begleitet hat, ein lähmender Effekt ausging, der viele Krtiker verstummen ließ, von denen einige sogar noch auf den fahrenden Zug aufgesprungen sind. Aufgesprungen getrieben von dem so genannten "Herdentrieb" , so dass sie,  um so stärker die Euphorie anstieg , um so eher die Gefahren übersehen haben. Promovierte Banker, die glaubten, alles in Gold verwandeln zu können.
Die sich in diesem Wahn verschuldet haben, auf Kredit völlig überteuerte Wohnungen erworben haben, getrieben wieder von dem (Herden-)Trieb, nichts verpassen zu wollen, nicht schlechter als die Kollegen dazustehen.
Noch ein Beispiel zum Herdentrieb: In Kenntnis aller Verkehrsregelungen stellte ich wie gewöhnlich mein PKW auf den fast voll geparkten Parkplatz ab . Zurückkommend stand vor meinem PKW ein Polizist und fragte mich, wieso ich dort parke.
Er verwies auf provisorisch aufgestellte Parkverbotsschilder, die ich übersehen hatte.
Angesprochen auf meinen Einwand, dann würden wohl alle hier falsch parken, erwiderte dieser, der Mensch sei eben ein Herdentier. So unbehelligt, wie ich mich entfernen konnte, dürften sich die Banken bzw. die Banker nicht entfernen können. Wie ich die Verkehrsschilder, so hatten sie, geblendet aber noch zusätzlich von Euphorie, Gier oder auch Massenwahn die dunklen Wolken über dem amerikanischen Immobilienhimmel übersehen.
MfG
Tormenta 63 ( H.S.)

Obama will have an open and productive conversation ... with the representatives of the credit card industry about the impact of the current crisis on consumers,..
Executives from Bank of America Corp, American Express Co, Citigroup Inc, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Capital One Financial Corp, Visa Inc and MasterCard Inc will be among those due to visit the White House.......Lawmakers have expressed outrage that many of the card-issuing banks are the same ones that have received government bailout money, paid for by the U.S. taxpayers who use the cards and are being saddled with the high fees.

Obama economic adviser Lawrence Summers last weekend accused the companies of having encouraged Americans to become "addicted" to credit after luring them with aggressive marketing campaigns and deceptive interest-rate terms.

The effort to tighten the rules on those firms is part of a broader regulatory reform agenda Obama is pursuing after taking office in January....www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE53M10720090423

ist etwa so als würde man nach dem Abschmelzen des letzten Eisbergs in der Antarktis neue Regeln für die Treibhausgasemissionen erstellen.
Der Prozess der Erderwärmung ist unumkehrbar fortgeschritten. Die Trader in New-York werden in Zukunft mit Schnorchel und Taucherbrille zocken müssen.

Bosch kündigt weiteren Stellenabbau an
Der weltgrösste Autozulieferer Bosch muss für 2008 einen dramatischen Gewinneinbruch verkraften und hat einen weiteren Stellenabbau angekündigt. Das Ergebnis nach Steuern schmolz im vergangenen Jahr um 87 Prozent auf 372 Mio. Euro, wie Bosch-Chef Franz Fehrenbach mitteilte.

www.bluewin.ch/de/index.php/24,142249/...eren_Stellenabbau_an/

General Motors Corp.'s massive summer shutdown is expected to begin at some plants in mid-May, the Free Press was told Wednesday.

Most of its factories will be closed for up to nine weeks, a person familiar with the planning said. The move would likely send shock waves through the already struggling supplier industry, which does not make money when factories are not using their parts to build cars and trucks.

Thomas Pyden, a GM spokesman, declined to comment Wednesday, saying that "if and when we have production news, our intent is to share it with employees first, and we have had no such announcements."

A person familiar with the planning said an announcement was slated for Friday.

Workers at GM's Orion Assembly plant, which makes Pontiac G6 and Chevy Malibu cars, were told that the factory would be idled in May and for half of June. But they have not heard about what to expect after the typical two-week summer shutdown, which starts in July.

Elbert Havard IV, who attaches doors to sedans at the Orion plant, said he understands why the automaker would decide to extend the shutdown.

"If we're making cars nobody is buying, then I think that's more negative for the company than for us," said Havard, 31, of Flint. "I hate to not work. But it makes sense why they would have to do that."
General Motors Corp.'s massive summer shutdown is expected to begin at some plants in mid-May, the Free Press was told Wednesday.
Advertisement

Most of its factories will be closed for up to nine weeks, a person familiar with the planning said. The move would likely send shock waves through the already struggling supplier industry, which does not make money when factories are not using their parts to build cars and trucks.

www.freep.com/article/20090423/BUSINESS01/904230610

Under normal circumstances, banks must alert their shareholders of any materially significant financial hits. But these weren't normal times: Late last year, Wall Street was crumbling and BofA faced intense government pressure to buy Merrill to keep the crisis from spreading. Disclosing losses at Merrill -- which eventually totaled $15.84 billion for the fourth quarter -- could have given BofA's shareholders an opportunity to stop the deal and let Merrill collapse instead.

"Isn't that something that any shareholder at Bank of America...would want to know?" Mr. Lewis was asked by a representative of New York's attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, according to the transcript.

"It wasn't up to me," Mr. Lewis said. The BofA chief said he was told by Messrs. Bernanke and Paulson that the deal needed to be completed, otherwise it would "impose a big risk to the financial system" of the U.S. as a whole.

Mr. Lewis's testimony suggests how aggressively federal regulators have been willing to behave in their fight to fix the U.S. financial system. The testimony for the first time spreads some of the blame to Messrs. Paulson and Bernanke for Mr. Lewis's decision to keep problems at Merrill under wraps.

"Everybody -- Lewis, Paulson, Bernanke -- eventually agreed that any public discussion of the situation at Merrill would have adverse consequences for the system," according to an individual close to BofA.

A person in government familiar with Mr. Bernanke's conversations with Mr. Lewis said Wednesday that the Fed chairman didn't offer Mr. Lewis advice on the question of disclosure. Instead, Mr. Bernanke suggested Mr. Lewis consult his own counsel.

Mr. Paulson repeatedly told Mr. Lewis that "the U.S. government was committed to ensuring that no systemically important financial institution would fail," according to his spokeswoman.

Mr. Lewis couldn't be reached for comment. A BofA spokesman said, "We had no legal obligation to disclose ongoing negotiations with the government and disclosure of ongoing negotiations likely would have severely disrupted the global financial markets and damaged the bank."

In the transcript reviewed by the Journal, Mr. Lewis didn't say he was explicitly instructed to keep silent about the losses piling up at Merrill. But his testimony indicates that he believed the government wanted him to remain silent.
'Good Part of the Hit'

Mr. Cuomo's investigator asked: "Wasn't Mr. Paulson, by his instruction, really asking Bank of America shareholders to take a good part of the hit of the Merrill losses?"

View Full Image
Bank of America's CEO says ex-Treasury chief Henry Paulson, left, and Fed boss Ben Bernanke told him to keep quiet about terms of BofA's deal to buy Merrill.
Associated Press

Bank of America's CEO says ex-Treasury chief Henry Paulson, left, and Fed boss Ben Bernanke told him to keep quiet about terms of BofA's deal to buy Merrill.


Mr. Lewis said, "Over the short term, yes." But he also said he believed Mr. Paulson's motive was preventing widespread disaster in the U.S. financial system.

According to a person familiar with the matter, Mr. Paulson in March told Cuomo investigators that Mr. Lewis may have misinterpreted some remarks about the Treasury's disclosure obligations as referring to BofA's obligations.

The transcript, which stems from an investigation into bonus payments at BofA conducted by the New York attorney general's office, illuminates the difficult dilemmas that regulators and executives alike have had to wrestle with in recent months. By keeping mum, the CEO of one of the biggest U.S. banks appeared to set aside a basic tenet of American-style finance -- that, above all, companies must disclose material information to shareholders and potential investors

"Regulators are supposed to tell you to obey the law, not to disobey the law," said Jonathan R. Macey, deputy dean of Yale Law School. "If you're the CEO, your first obligation is not to your regulator, it's to your institution and shareholders."

At the same time, regulators were struggling to prevent a systemic panic. In the transcript, Mr. Lewis is quoted saying that the regulators' goal was to put everything in place for the deal to be done, "so that you didn't set off alarms in a tragic economy."

Mr. Lewis's statements highlight a lack of public disclosure that has accompanied the financial crisis since its inception. The crisis has roots in the fact that Wall Street banks didn't adequately disclose the true prices of the toxic mortgage-related assets they held. The government has also been criticized for offering limited disclosure of the details or rationale of some of its bailout strategies, from the forced sale of Bear Stearns Cos., to the $173 billion injection into American International Group Inc.
From the Archive

The testimony -- which the New York attorney general plans to release to federal regulators and overseers of bailout money and banks Thursday -- stemmed from an investigation that started when the New York attorney general began examining the circumstances surrounding $3.6 billion of bonus payments to Merrill employees just before the takeover was completed. New York prosecutors are expected to provide the testimony to several regulatory bodies, says a person familiar with the matter.

The new details of Mr. Lewis's interactions with regulators over the Merrill merger coincide with the bank chief's battle to retain control of his company as it continues to struggle. The size of the Merrill losses stunned investors in January, and earlier this week Mr. Lewis gave a dim outlook for the economy, setting aside another $13.4 billion to brace for more credit losses, despite earning a first-quarter profit.
Jobs at Stake

The Wall Street Journal previously reported, in a page-one story on Feb. 5, that Mr. Lewis agreed to proceed with the Merrill merger only after Messrs. Paulson and Bernanke said that he and his board would lose their jobs if Bank of America backed out of the deal. Mr. Lewis's testimony with the New York attorney general's office corroborates that account.

Du solltest die Quelle zu diesem wichtigen Artikel nennen. Dass er im Wall Street Journal erschien und nicht in auf einer Gold- oder Permbären-Seite, macht ihn noch interessanter:

online.wsj.com/article/SB124045610029046349.html

Der Artikel liefert weitere Indizien, dass das US-Bankensystem höchstwahrscheinlich in großen Teilen bankrott ist. Wieso sonst hätte Lewis (CEO von Bank of America, BAC) von Bernanke und Paulson die Order zum Stillschweigen über den wahren Zustand von Merrill Lynch erhalten?

An dieser Stelle auch noch mal Lob an den "Gewährsmann" von Wawidu, der früh vor der Merrill-Malaise - bereits bei Kursen um 50 Dollar (lange vor dem Aufkauf durch BAC) - gewarnt hat. Wawidu hatte das hier gepostet.

Es befürchten nun schon mehrere Leute, dass Osteuropa deutlich tiefer in die Rezession fallen wird als Westeuropa.
http://www.ariva.de/...kandidat_Aufregung_in_der_Alpenidylle_c2951302

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by a slightly more than forecast 27,000 last week, government data showed on Thursday, while continued claims posted a record high again as the recession bit.

 

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 640,000 in the week ended April 18 from a revised 613,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.

 

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 635,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 610,000 the week before.

Stock futures trimmed gains following release of the employment numbers but Wall Street was still poised for a modestly higher open.

sagt long Gold. Das habe ich umgesetzt.

http://www.ariva.de/..._nun_long_Gold_t357283?pnr=5732121#jump5732121
Nur zur Info:
Ich habe dieses in den entsprechenden Thread gepackt da hier einigen Leuten die Nackenhaare hoch gehen wenn das Thema Gold angesprochen wird.
 

Gruß

Permanent

Nach Ansicht der führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute bricht die deutsche Wirtschaft in diesem Jahr so stark wie noch nie seit dem zweiten Weltkrieg ein. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt werde vermutlich um 6,0 Prozent schrumpfen, heißt es in der nun vorgestellten Frühjahrsprognose. Für das laufende Jahr rechnen die Forscher mit einer Million zusätzlicher Arbeitsloser.

Kein drittes Paket

Am Mittwoch hatten in Berlin Spitzenvertreter von Regierung, Wirtschaft und Gewerkschaften die schwierige Lage beraten. Die Bundesregierung wehrte Forderungen der Gewerkschaften nach einem dritten Konjunkturpaket ab. Die bisherigen Maßnahmen mit einem Volumen von 80 Milliarden Euro müssten erst einmal wirken.

Der Wirtschaftsweise Wolfgang Franz, der an den Beratungen im Kanzleramt teilgenommen hatte, sagte dem "Mannheimer Morgen": "Jetzt müssen wir erst mal die beiden anderen, vor allem das zweite, wirken lassen." Franz, der auch Vorsitzender des Sachverständigenrates zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung ist, betonte, dass die in der Krise gesunkenen Energie- und Nahrungsmittelpreise mit einem Volumen von rund 30 Milliarden Euro im Jahr fast wie ein drittes Paket wirken würden.

Der Chef des Münchner Ifo-Instituts, Hans-Werner Sinn, sprach von der "schlimmsten Depression" seit der Weltwirtschaftskrise. Trotz aller negativen Vorzeichen gingen im Gegensatz zu den USA von Deutschland aber noch positive Impulse aus. "Das ist ein Konjunkturprogramm für die Welt, was wir hier machen", sagte er mit Blick auf die starken Importe des Exportweltmeisters.

n-tv

irgendwann  löst sich die seitwärtsbewegung  nach unten auf, spätestens dann, wenn manipulation und lügen im marktgeschehen  real ankommen...wir shorties können ja warten , und wir haben geduld......

Meiner Meinung nach wird es nun wie Anfang des Jahres noch einaml hoch auf 5000, vielleicht sogar noch etwas höher. Schließlich stürtzt alles wieder wie damals deutlich ab. Zur Verdeutlichung:

www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/...l?_r=2&ref=business

und die Deutsche Bank hat den Stresstest nicht bestanden,sagte n-tv vorhin...ist ja schon sehr merkwürdig,dass man das rauslässt bevor die US-Banken dran sind.

Federal regulators have quietly scheduled face-to-face meetings on Friday with leaders of the nation’s biggest banks to reveal the preliminary results of the stress tests.

Officials plan to meet separately with top executives from each of the 19 major banks at the offices of the Federal Reserve Bank in their district, according to people briefed on the sessions. The banks will then have until Tuesday to dispute any of the findings.

Federal officials are preparing to disclose the final results on May 4, and they expect to rely on the banks to release findings specific to their institution.

The stress tests are expected to certify which banks are healthy enough to start paying back the government bailout funds they accepted and which need additional capital.At the meetings on Friday, regulators plan to hold discussions with all 19 lenders, minimizing the negative stigma if only a handful of banks were called in for meetings while giving them a chance to address any questions they may have about the data.

Officials have said that at least a handful of the 19 banks undergoing the exam will need to raise sizable amounts of fresh capital, a move that will severely dilute existing shareholders. For the tests to be credible, regulators recognize that not all of the banks can pass the exam with flying colors.

Banks will be given the chance to raise money from private investors first, but the fragile condition of some institutions and the short timetable before the results are made public make it increasingly likely that they will return to the government for money. ....

ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/23/55041/stress-test-appeal/
So you might think the weekend would be a good time to watch for leaks of the test results to the press. Banks with robust results may well be keen to do so. However, banks that did badly or failed (if there are any) will obviously do everything they can to prevent the results being made public.

But, they may have another option.
The NYT article also suggests that banks not satisfied with their result will be able to appeal them.
Since the banks exams are confidential under federal law, the companies are unlikely to immediately disclose the preliminary findings to their shareholders. Bank officials have been told that they will have until Tuesday to determine if there were any errors or extenuating circumstances that might cause them to protest the findings. Some banks, for example, believe that their loan portfolios are less risky because they maintained better underwriting standards or operated in housing markets that did not experience a big run-up in prices. But it is unclear how any formal appeals will be handled.
Extenuating circumstances, like, ummm a “global financial crisis”?

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/845642c6-2f67-11de-a8f6-00144feabdc0.html
Volkswagen is considering an audacious bid for Porsche’s automotive business, in another extraordinary twist in the corporate saga surrounding Germany’s most famous car dynasty.

Several people close to the situation said VW’s management was weighing the option of buying Porsche AG, in a move that would bring relief to the highly indebted parent Porsche SE holding company.

This would turn upside down Porsche’s audacious takeover of VW, which started three and a half years ago. VW is Europe’s largest car company whose turnover is roughly 15 times as great as Porsche’s.

“The tail would finally stop wagging the dog,” ......

U.S. existing-home sales fall 3% in March
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 10:01 a.m. EDT April 23, 2009


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Resales of existing homes and condos fell 3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, with distressed sales now accounting for half of all sales, a trade group reported Thursday. Sales are down 7.1% in the past year, the National Association of Realtors said .First-time buyers accounted for 53% of buyers in March, the group said. First-time buyers can get thousands in subsidies from the federal and state governments. Sales were weaker than the 4.63 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Median sales prices have fallen 12.4% in the past year, the group said.

http://www.ariva.de/...nische_Signale_t283343?pnr=5732157#jump5732157

Wenn die 900 durchstoßen werden geht es wohl kräftig hoch ansonsten bin ich halt mit kleinem Gewinn raus.

Permanent

Auch ich bin nicht der Auffassung, dass die "Produzenten" von "toxic waste" gegenüber ausländischen Käufern eine Abzock-Absicht verfolgten. Dafür hatten und haben sie immer noch viel zu viel von dem Zeug in den eigenen Büchern stehen. Ich gehe davon aus, dass diese Banken in die Fußstapfen einiger "Profitmaximierer" der Vergangenheit getreten sind, z.B. von Michael Milken:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Milken

Ausgestattet mit erheblichen Summen an "Easy Money" und exzessiven Leverage-Möglichkeiten glaubten deren Finanzjongleure, ein globales Mammut-Casino errichten zu können, bei dem die Emis der Bonds bzw. ihrer Derivate letztlich immer die Gewinner sein würden. Der "Spielbetrieb" lief ja auch eine Zeit lang fantastisch, da es viele gierige Spieler gab, wobei die US-Banken sogar als die größten Spieler in ihrem eigenen Casino auftraten. Es bestand ja vermeintlich auch nur ein geringes Risiko, da man das Casino gut versichert hatte.
Den "Securitization-Wahn", der allen volkswirtschaftlichen Theorien und Erfahrungen widerspricht, ist mE eine der Hauptursachen für die aktuelle Malaise.  

"Gier frisst Hirn."

Unser Versicherungswahn treibt uns in den Abgrund. Die meisten Versicherungen gehören verboten. Im Finanzbereich alle! Ohne scheinbare Sicherheit wird prinzipiell genauer hingeschaut.