Na ja, ich halte diesen Gebrauch schon fuer recht nonstandard. Es gibt einige Adjektive, die als Substantive gebraucht werden, das stimmt schon, z.B. quiet oder calm, aber bei "honest" straeuben sich mir die Nackenhaare. War bestimmt ein Englaender, der das geschrieben hat.
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Der USA Bären-Thread
Beiträge: 156.395
Zugriffe: 22.474.607 / Heute: 1.733
Zugriffe: 22.474.607 / Heute: 1.733
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Deutsche Export-Aussichten bleiben düster
08.04.2009 , 08:20 Uhr
Die deutschen Exporte sind im Februar wegen der weltweiten Wirtschaftskrise erneut um mehr als ein Fünftel eingebrochen. Ein Experte sprach vom zweitstärksten Rückgang seit Einführung der Statistik 1950. Der Außenhandels-Verband erwartet noch schlechtere Zahlen in diesem Jahr.
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...ichten-bleiben-duester;2231083
08.04.2009 , 08:20 Uhr
Die deutschen Exporte sind im Februar wegen der weltweiten Wirtschaftskrise erneut um mehr als ein Fünftel eingebrochen. Ein Experte sprach vom zweitstärksten Rückgang seit Einführung der Statistik 1950. Der Außenhandels-Verband erwartet noch schlechtere Zahlen in diesem Jahr.
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...ichten-bleiben-duester;2231083
Japan
Sayonara, Keynes!
von Martin Hutchinson (breakingviews.com)
Für Anhänger fiskalpolitischer Stützungsmaßnahmen muss Japan wie ein Widerspruch in sich erscheinen. Es platzen zwar keine Spekulationsblasen in dem Land und seine Konjunkturpakete sind vergleichsweise umfangreicher als die der USA, und dennoch geht die japanische Rezession tiefer. Es könnte sein, dass die öffentliche Verschuldung von 175 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) private Investitionen abwürgt, die sonst vielleicht das Wachstum wiederhergestellt hätten.
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...views/sayonara-keynes;2231072
Sayonara, Keynes!
von Martin Hutchinson (breakingviews.com)
Für Anhänger fiskalpolitischer Stützungsmaßnahmen muss Japan wie ein Widerspruch in sich erscheinen. Es platzen zwar keine Spekulationsblasen in dem Land und seine Konjunkturpakete sind vergleichsweise umfangreicher als die der USA, und dennoch geht die japanische Rezession tiefer. Es könnte sein, dass die öffentliche Verschuldung von 175 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) private Investitionen abwürgt, die sonst vielleicht das Wachstum wiederhergestellt hätten.
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...views/sayonara-keynes;2231072
...ich habe gerade nach der bedeutung von ecri gegoogelt und dabei diesen geglätteten chart gefunden.
http://www.markt-daten.de/kalender/chart/...toren/ecri-wli-ab1990.gif
http://www.markt-daten.de/kalender/chart/...toren/ecri-wli-ab1990.gif
diesistkeineaufforderungzuirgendetwas
www.markt-daten.de/research/indikatoren/ecri-wli.htm
diesistkeineaufforderungzuirgendetwas
EURO-USD etc. z.B.jeder weiss ,dass ich short potitioniert bin, und lezte tage aufgestockt habe , heute ist sie kräftig im plus, wer das kapital hat, der sollte, wenn er währungen handelt im derivatebereich mit os lange lz und nahe im geld handeln, damit lässt sich geld verdienen, und diese ohne stopps laufen lassen, ich mache das seit einigen jahren so, mit erfolg .....
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is grim, and the Federal Reserve is "duty bound to apply every tool" to clean up the financial system and clear a path for a return to sustainable growth, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, said on Wednesday.
"The men and women who operate our businesses and create and sustain employment have assumed a defensive crouch," Fisher said in remarks prepared for a speech to a forum sponsored by the Japan Center for Economic Research in Tokyo. "The result is an American economy in statis."
With firms doing all they can to cut costs, and especially the cost of labor, the jobless rate is likely to hit 10 percent by year-end compared with 8.5 percent in March, he said. "Presently, the risk is deflationary job destruction."
The U.S. economy probably shrank in the just-ended first quarter of 2009 at a rate similar to the 6.3 percent annual decline posted in the fourth quarter of 2008, he said, giving no timeline for a potential recovery.
With the world "groaning with excess capacity," rising inflation will probably not be an issue for the next couple of years, Fisher said. "The problem with regard to maintaining price stability most certainly is not inflation."
Fisher said the Fed has been "dramatically proactive and highly innovative" in attempting to resurrect the credit markets and halt the deep economic recession that started in the United States in December 2007.
"We are duty bound to apply every tool we can to clean up the mess that our financial system has become," he said.
Fisher is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2009.
Although the Fed has run up its balance sheet dramatically and will do so further based on its current commitments, Fisher said fears that dollar-based fixed-income portfolios would be debased have been "unfounded" so far.
"The problems facing the largest competitive currency, the euro, are perhaps even more substantial than those confronting the United States," he said.
"Demand for U.S. Treasuries ... will be determined by their attractiveness relative to alternatives and they may be judged more, rather than less, attractive under most reasonable future scenarios."
The Fed is determined to "short-circuit" any inflationary consequence of its balance sheet growth, and is in the process of acquiring new tools to help, Fisher said.
"We realize ... we are at risk of being perceived as monetizing the fiscal largess of Congress" and that by intervening in mortgage-based securities and other markets could be seen as blurring the lines between fiscal and monetary policy -- a threat to the Fed's independence, he said.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is grim, and the Federal Reserve is "duty bound to apply every tool" to clean up the financial system and clear a path for a return to sustainable growth, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, said on Wednesday.
"The men and women who operate our businesses and create and sustain employment have assumed a defensive crouch," Fisher said in remarks prepared for a speech to a forum sponsored by the Japan Center for Economic Research in Tokyo. "The result is an American economy in statis."
With firms doing all they can to cut costs, and especially the cost of labor, the jobless rate is likely to hit 10 percent by year-end compared with 8.5 percent in March, he said. "Presently, the risk is deflationary job destruction."
The U.S. economy probably shrank in the just-ended first quarter of 2009 at a rate similar to the 6.3 percent annual decline posted in the fourth quarter of 2008, he said, giving no timeline for a potential recovery.
With the world "groaning with excess capacity," rising inflation will probably not be an issue for the next couple of years, Fisher said. "The problem with regard to maintaining price stability most certainly is not inflation."
Fisher said the Fed has been "dramatically proactive and highly innovative" in attempting to resurrect the credit markets and halt the deep economic recession that started in the United States in December 2007.
"We are duty bound to apply every tool we can to clean up the mess that our financial system has become," he said.
Fisher is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2009.
Although the Fed has run up its balance sheet dramatically and will do so further based on its current commitments, Fisher said fears that dollar-based fixed-income portfolios would be debased have been "unfounded" so far.
"The problems facing the largest competitive currency, the euro, are perhaps even more substantial than those confronting the United States," he said.
"Demand for U.S. Treasuries ... will be determined by their attractiveness relative to alternatives and they may be judged more, rather than less, attractive under most reasonable future scenarios."
The Fed is determined to "short-circuit" any inflationary consequence of its balance sheet growth, and is in the process of acquiring new tools to help, Fisher said.
"We realize ... we are at risk of being perceived as monetizing the fiscal largess of Congress" and that by intervening in mortgage-based securities and other markets could be seen as blurring the lines between fiscal and monetary policy -- a threat to the Fed's independence, he said.
Bear Market Will Continue: Roubini
NOURIEL ROUBINI, DR. DOOM, BAD BANK, BAD DEBT, TOXIC DEBT, FINANCIAL SHOCK, EARNINGS, ECONOMY, RECESSION, DEPRESSION, BEAR MARKET, STOCKS, BANKS, BANKING
Reuters
| 08 Apr 2009 | 03:22 AM ET
There's still bad news ahead for the US economy — and by extension for Canada — and the bear market for stocks is not over yet, according to a prominent economist who foretold much of the current turmoil.
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of economic research firm RGE Monitor, said on Tuesday that he expected more dour macroeconomic data and problems in the banking and housing sectors, as well as pressures on consumers.
Big stimulus packages will eventually slow the rate at which economies contract, but that will take time, he added.
"There will be a light at the end of the tunnel somewhere down the line, later rather than sooner," he said at a Toronto news conference, which took place ahead of a Sprott Asset Management event entitled "A Night with the Bears."
Roubini, who made a name for himself by sounding early warning signs about housing bubbles and credit crises, earlier told Canada's BNN television that he still believed the recent market upturn represented a bear market rally, and not a change in sentiment.
"Macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that's why I believe this is still a bear market rally," he told BNN.
Markets logged four straight weeks of gains until this week on optimism that unprecedented interest rate cuts and billions of dollars of stimulus will eventually fight off the worst global downturn since World War Two, and on upbeat comments from U.S. banks on their performance so far in 2009.
The fact that some indicators did not match pessimistic expectations was also a positive factor, as were last week's pledges by world leaders to do more to fight the crisis.
But Roubini played down the rally.
"I am more a realist than a pessimist. I'll be the first one to call for the bottom of this economic contraction, recovery of the market when I see a sustained economic and therefore financial recovery," he said.
Meredith Whitney, chief executive of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, said stabilization in the banking sector would hold the key to a turnaround.
Whitney, one of Wall Street's most bearish bank analysts, has forecast another rough year for banks as they shed assets to raise capital.
- Whitney: Banks' Earnings May Improve in First Quarter
"It's not just the banks that have to stabilize their own lending it's that they have to make up for the void of the shadow banking industry that has been shut down since the summer of 2007. We've got a ways to go," she said.
Canadian banks have largely shrugged off the severe banking troubles south of the border.
But commodity prices have fallen sharply from the peak of last summer and the Canadian auto sector is hurting badly.
"The fundamentals of the (Canadian) economy are robust, but when the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold," said Roubini. "This time around the U.S. is not just sneezing, it's a severe case of pneumonia and the biggest trading partner next door is Canada."
Sprott Asset Management's Eric Sprott said his pessimistic view on the economy is based on the "overleveraging of the banking system." "When we look at the systemic financial system we're in -- and it affects every country in the world including Canada -- I think staying bearish is the route to go," he told BNN.
By Jennifer Kwan
TORONTO (Reuters) - There's still bad news ahead for the U.S. economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet, according to a prominent economist who foretold much of the current turmoil.
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of economic research firm RGE Monitor, said on Tuesday that he expected more dour macroeconomic data and problems in the banking and housing sectors, as well as pressures on consumers.
Big stimulus packages will eventually slow the rate at which economies contract, but that will take time, he added.
"There will be a light at the end of the tunnel somewhere down the line, later rather than sooner," he said at a Toronto news conference, which took place ahead of a Sprott Asset Management event entitled "A Night with the Bears."
Roubini, who made a name for himself by sounding early warning signs about housing bubbles and credit crises, earlier told Canada's BNN television that he still believed the recent market upturn represented a bear market rally, and not a change in sentiment.
"Macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that's why I believe this is still a bear market rally," he told BNN.
Markets logged four straight weeks of gains until this week on optimism that unprecedented interest rate cuts and billions of dollars of stimulus will eventually fight off the worst global downturn since World War Two, and on upbeat comments from U.S. banks on their performance so far in 2009.
The fact that some indicators did not match pessimistic expectations was also a positive factor, as were last week's pledges by world leaders to do more to fight the crisis.
But Roubini played down the rally.
"I am more a realist than a pessimist. I'll be the first one to call for the bottom of this economic contraction, recovery of the market when I see a sustained economic and therefore financial recovery," he said.
Meredith Whitney, chief executive of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, said stabilization in the banking sector would hold the key to a turnaround. Whitney, one of Wall Street's most bearish bank analysts, has forecast another rough year for banks as they shed assets to raise capital.
"It's not just the banks that have to stabilize their own lending it's that they have to make up for the void of the shadow banking industry that has been shut down since the summer of 2007. We've got a ways to go," she said.
Canadian banks have largely shrugged off the severe banking troubles south of the border.
But commodity prices have fallen sharply from the peak of last summer and the Canadian auto sector is hurting badly.
"The fundamentals of the (Canadian) economy are robust, but when the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold," said Roubini. "This time around the U.S. is not just sneezing, it's a severe case of pneumonia and the biggest trading partner next door is Canada."
Sprott Asset Management's Eric Sprott said his pessimistic view on the economy is based on the "overleveraging of the banking system."
"When we look at the systemic financial system we're in -- and it affects every country in the world including Canada -- I think staying bearish is the route to go," he told BNN.
TORONTO (Reuters) - There's still bad news ahead for the U.S. economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet, according to a prominent economist who foretold much of the current turmoil.
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of economic research firm RGE Monitor, said on Tuesday that he expected more dour macroeconomic data and problems in the banking and housing sectors, as well as pressures on consumers.
Big stimulus packages will eventually slow the rate at which economies contract, but that will take time, he added.
"There will be a light at the end of the tunnel somewhere down the line, later rather than sooner," he said at a Toronto news conference, which took place ahead of a Sprott Asset Management event entitled "A Night with the Bears."
Roubini, who made a name for himself by sounding early warning signs about housing bubbles and credit crises, earlier told Canada's BNN television that he still believed the recent market upturn represented a bear market rally, and not a change in sentiment.
"Macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that's why I believe this is still a bear market rally," he told BNN.
Markets logged four straight weeks of gains until this week on optimism that unprecedented interest rate cuts and billions of dollars of stimulus will eventually fight off the worst global downturn since World War Two, and on upbeat comments from U.S. banks on their performance so far in 2009.
The fact that some indicators did not match pessimistic expectations was also a positive factor, as were last week's pledges by world leaders to do more to fight the crisis.
But Roubini played down the rally.
"I am more a realist than a pessimist. I'll be the first one to call for the bottom of this economic contraction, recovery of the market when I see a sustained economic and therefore financial recovery," he said.
Meredith Whitney, chief executive of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, said stabilization in the banking sector would hold the key to a turnaround. Whitney, one of Wall Street's most bearish bank analysts, has forecast another rough year for banks as they shed assets to raise capital.
"It's not just the banks that have to stabilize their own lending it's that they have to make up for the void of the shadow banking industry that has been shut down since the summer of 2007. We've got a ways to go," she said.
Canadian banks have largely shrugged off the severe banking troubles south of the border.
But commodity prices have fallen sharply from the peak of last summer and the Canadian auto sector is hurting badly.
"The fundamentals of the (Canadian) economy are robust, but when the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold," said Roubini. "This time around the U.S. is not just sneezing, it's a severe case of pneumonia and the biggest trading partner next door is Canada."
Sprott Asset Management's Eric Sprott said his pessimistic view on the economy is based on the "overleveraging of the banking system."
"When we look at the systemic financial system we're in -- and it affects every country in the world including Canada -- I think staying bearish is the route to go," he told BNN.
By Ilaina Jonas
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The vacancy rate for U.S. apartments hit a three-year high in the first quarter and asking rents dropped the most in at least 10 years as the number of excess apartments on the market ballooned, according to real estate research firm Reis Inc.
And the figures are forecast to get even worse as more apartment buildings are expected to open this year, increasing supply, and as the U.S. employment picture gets uglier, Reis said.
Job creation is the No. 1 driver of demand for apartments.
"Given that things are weakening right now, any new buildings that come on will add additional pressure to landlords," Victor Calanog, Reis director of research, said.
The national apartment vacancy rate rose to 7.2 percent in the first quarter, up 0.60 percentage points from the prior quarter and 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, according to the report, released on Tuesday.
Since reaching a cyclical low of 5.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008, the U.S. apartment vacancy rate has surged 1.7 percentage points, Reis said.
It was the highest vacancy rate since the first quarter of 2002. That was right before the last downturn bottomed out, but Reis expects the picture to get a lot darker as "we are arguably only at the beginning of the current downturn."
Behind the rising vacancy rate is a build-up of available apartments. The number of vacant apartments added was 31,878 units in the first quarter. This was the largest amount of excess apartments the sector has seen since the first quarter of 2002 and does not include empty condos for rent.
Asking rents fell by 0.6 percent to $1,046 per month, the largest single-quarter decline since Reis began reporting quarterly performance data in 1999.
Effective rent, which factors in months of free rent, and other concessions and freebies, fell 1.1 percent to a monthly rent of $984.
Some 22,833 units came online in the first quarter of 2009, and Reis expects a total of over 90,000 units to come online through 2009.
Many heads of apartment real estate investment trusts expect that revenue in the best markets could be flat on a year-over-year basis, David Neithercut, chief executive of Equity Residential, said last month in a conference call in which he was joined by Camden Property Trust CEO Ric Campo, Home Properties CEO Ed Pettinella, and Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc CEO Eric Bolton.
Neithercut said landlords were giving generous concessions in order to maintain occupancy rates.
In the New York metropolitan area, the largest U.S. apartment market, the vacancy rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 3.4 percent in the first quarter -- the largest single-quarter increase since at least 1999. Effective rent fell to $2,728 a month, down 2.6 percent from the prior quarter.
The decline was exceeded only by the San Francisco area, where the effective rent fell 2.8 percent to $1,775.
(Reporting by Ilaina Jonas; Editing by Gary Hill)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The vacancy rate for U.S. apartments hit a three-year high in the first quarter and asking rents dropped the most in at least 10 years as the number of excess apartments on the market ballooned, according to real estate research firm Reis Inc.
And the figures are forecast to get even worse as more apartment buildings are expected to open this year, increasing supply, and as the U.S. employment picture gets uglier, Reis said.
Job creation is the No. 1 driver of demand for apartments.
"Given that things are weakening right now, any new buildings that come on will add additional pressure to landlords," Victor Calanog, Reis director of research, said.
The national apartment vacancy rate rose to 7.2 percent in the first quarter, up 0.60 percentage points from the prior quarter and 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, according to the report, released on Tuesday.
Since reaching a cyclical low of 5.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008, the U.S. apartment vacancy rate has surged 1.7 percentage points, Reis said.
It was the highest vacancy rate since the first quarter of 2002. That was right before the last downturn bottomed out, but Reis expects the picture to get a lot darker as "we are arguably only at the beginning of the current downturn."
Behind the rising vacancy rate is a build-up of available apartments. The number of vacant apartments added was 31,878 units in the first quarter. This was the largest amount of excess apartments the sector has seen since the first quarter of 2002 and does not include empty condos for rent.
Asking rents fell by 0.6 percent to $1,046 per month, the largest single-quarter decline since Reis began reporting quarterly performance data in 1999.
Effective rent, which factors in months of free rent, and other concessions and freebies, fell 1.1 percent to a monthly rent of $984.
Some 22,833 units came online in the first quarter of 2009, and Reis expects a total of over 90,000 units to come online through 2009.
Many heads of apartment real estate investment trusts expect that revenue in the best markets could be flat on a year-over-year basis, David Neithercut, chief executive of Equity Residential, said last month in a conference call in which he was joined by Camden Property Trust CEO Ric Campo, Home Properties CEO Ed Pettinella, and Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc CEO Eric Bolton.
Neithercut said landlords were giving generous concessions in order to maintain occupancy rates.
In the New York metropolitan area, the largest U.S. apartment market, the vacancy rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 3.4 percent in the first quarter -- the largest single-quarter increase since at least 1999. Effective rent fell to $2,728 a month, down 2.6 percent from the prior quarter.
The decline was exceeded only by the San Francisco area, where the effective rent fell 2.8 percent to $1,775.
(Reporting by Ilaina Jonas; Editing by Gary Hill)
Sonntag, d. 6. April 2009: "Der Trend ist zur Zeit also up und zwar sehr stark. Dies erkennt man an der positiven Stochastik, der Bärenfalle neulich und der sehr starken Upbewegungen im Tagesverlauf, die jede schlechte Nachricht ignorieren. Der Anlagedruck ist offensichtlich enorm. Damit nützt es nichts, sich gegen diesen Tsunamie zu stellen, schon garnicht als Daytrader. Long in den Dips ist damit angesagt, jegliches shorten verbietet sich von selbst.
http://www.ariva.de/...adis_Dax_2009__t361575?pnr=5652187#jump5652187
http://www.ariva.de/...adis_Dax_2009__t361575?pnr=5652187#jump5652187
Hier bei ARIVA gibt es viele Kontraindikatoren, me too ;-))
Aber das perverse an den Profis ist, dass die fehler nie zugeben, auch wenn die fakten schriftlich nachvolziehbar ist.
MfG
ATH
Aber das perverse an den Profis ist, dass die fehler nie zugeben, auch wenn die fakten schriftlich nachvolziehbar ist.
MfG
ATH
funktionieren und ein gutes Einkommen garantieren würden, müsste die Börse geschlossen werden. Sie würde nicht mehr funktionieren. Logisch nachvollziehbar. Trotzdem hängen viele an ihren Techniken wie der Besoffene am Laternenmast.
;o)
;o)
Der in der Erläuterung von Markt-Daten.de gezeigte Chart ist der geglättete Wachstumschart des wöchentlichen Index, der z.Z. ansteigt. Der Index selbst hat jedoch nach einer kurzen schwachen Erholungsphase den Abwärtstrend wieder aufgenommen. Der Wachstumschart hinkt der Indexentwicklung nach.
"Auswirkung:
gering; die Märkte haben die Zuverlässigkeit des Index noch nicht getestet"
Schaut euch den Indexchart seit 1967 in # 41371 an! "Zuverlässigkeit noch nicht getestet"??? Es gibt meines Wissens keinen zuverlässigeren Indikator.
"Auswirkung:
gering; die Märkte haben die Zuverlässigkeit des Index noch nicht getestet"
Schaut euch den Indexchart seit 1967 in # 41371 an! "Zuverlässigkeit noch nicht getestet"??? Es gibt meines Wissens keinen zuverlässigeren Indikator.
Die US-Quartalszahlen, gestern mit dem Alcoa-Patzer eingeleitet, dürften sehr schlecht ausfallen. Analysten haben zwar im Vorfeld ihre Erwartungen deutlich nach unten korrigiert, aber höchstwahrscheinlich nicht weit genug, da sie in der Regel einen "bullischen Bias" haben (und letztlich davon leben, dass Aktien steigen). Ich gehe daher davon aus, dass die schlechten Zahlen NICHT ausreichend eingepreist sind, was dann - wie gestern bei Alcoa - reihenweise zu "Enttäuschungen" führen dürfte.
Kommen die Indizes dann erst mal ins Rutschen, verweisen Charttechniker auf gebrochene Unterstützungen
und die News-Verbreiter unterfüttern die sich verstärkende Abwärtsbewegung mit passenden Horrormeldungen. Das können sie auch deshalb, weil Firmen, wenn es abwärts geht, eher bereits sind, Leichen im Keller "zuzugeben" als in einem temporären Uptrend. Die Hoffnung der Firmen dabei ist, dass ihre Negativmeldungen/Gewinnwarnungen/schlechten Ausblicke usw. im allgemeinen Mahlstrom der Negativität untergehen. Denn je mehr es an der Makro-Front bröselt, desto weniger achten die Leute auf individuelle Patzer der Firmen - sofern diese nicht, wie vermutlich bei GM, zum Konkurs führen. Die "Bereitschaft" zum GM-Konkurs steigt ebenfalls im Downtrend - aus denselben Gründen (Hoffnung, dass dies im negativen Grundrauschen untergeht).
Meine Bauchmeinung ist daher, dass wir nun die berühmte 5. Abwärtswelle ansteuern, die den SP-500 unter 500 bringen sollte. Im Herbst könnte es ein Jahrestief geben. Insgesamt rechne ich mit einem Chart-Szenario ähnlich wie 2002/2003: Jahrestief im Oktober 2009, danach long trade-bare Erholung, die im Januar 2010 austoppt. Danach wieder runter mit weiterem, noch tieferem Tief im Frühjahr 2010. Dieses Tief könnte dann evtl. der sagenumwobene "finale Boden" sein. Zeitlich würde das zu aktuellen Prognosen passen, die eine wirtschaftliche Erholung nicht vor Ende 2010 sehen. Nähme die Börse die Erholung wie üblich um 6 Monate vorweg, käme im Frühjahr 2010 "das Tief" - und es böte zugleich einen sehr guten Langzeit-Longeinstieg. Die Indizes dürften da erheblich tiefer stehen als jetzt. Bezogen auf das Top bei 1500 im SPX rechne ich insgesamt mit einer Zwei-Drittel-Korrektur (auf rund 500), was ja auch eine hübsche Fibomarke darstellt.
Wie gesagt: Alles nur meine unfundierte Bauchmeinung, ähnlich verlässlich wie die Konjunkturprognosen der drei Dutzend deutschen Wirtschafts-Waisen,
die ihren Vorhersagen für die deutsche Konjunktur nun um rekordhohe 5 % nach unten korrigieren müssen.
wir werden derzeit vom prinzip HOFFNUNG getragen, die realität wird uns jedoch bald einholen...performance druck hin oder her.....
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
Published: April 7, 2009
Moody’s Investors Service assigned a negative outlook to the creditworthiness of all local governments in the United States, the agency said Tuesday, the first time it had ever issued such a blanket report on municipalities.
The report signaled how severely the economic downturn was affecting towns, counties and school districts across the nation.
While Moody’s regularly reports on the financial strength of various sectors of private industry, its analysts have in the past considered America’s tens of thousands of towns and local authorities too diverse for generalizations.
The report suggests that the ratings of many governments could be downgraded in the coming months, something that would make it more expensive for them to borrow money to finance their operations.
In the most extreme cases, municipalities might default on some of their obligations, as Jefferson County, Ala., has been threatening to do for a number of months.
Vallejo, Calif., declared bankruptcy last year and is being closely watched to see if it will set a legal precedent that other towns could follow.
Moody’s did not report on individual cities or towns, but its overview offered a general note of caution for investors who have bought municipal bonds seeking a safe stream of income in difficult financial markets.
In a special report made public on Tuesday, the agency cited revenues that are falling almost everywhere as a result of the economic downturn. But it also discussed the problems some municipalities had created for themselves by using complex financial products that seemed to be saving money at first, only to send costs soaring during the credit crisis.
In former boom states like California and Florida, the sharp decline in housing prices is translating into falling property-tax revenue, while in towns in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, revenues are off because of the collapse of the auto industry. Many local governments in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will lose significant revenue because they rely on the banking and financial services sectors for their tax bases. Moody’s said any municipality relying heavily on tourism, gambling or manufacturing was probably at risk of feeling a pinch.
The report suggested conflicts ahead between taxpayers struggling to keep their own households afloat and elected officials charged with balancing budgets, making their payrolls and protecting their credit ratings.
“Taxpayers, worried about their own financial condition, are more resistant than ever to increasing property or other local taxes,” the report observed.
The report’s publication coincided with the downgrading by Moody’s of the credit of the State of Illinois to the A level from double-A. Moody’s said Illinois was having difficulty managing its cash, and in recent weeks had been trying to push its scheduled pension contributions into the future. The state pension fund is already seriously underfunded.
The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, warned that local governments had probably lost their ability to lower their borrowing costs by linking their bonds to derivatives. Such bond packages had become popular in the last few years because they appeared to offer cities both the lower borrowing costs of variable-rate bonds and the predictability of fixed-rate bonds. But the structures broke down during last year’s market turmoil, leaving some municipalities staggering under more debt than they can afford.
Mr. Bernanke said he was aware that some governments with low credit ratings were completely shut out of the short-term financial markets, while others were stuck with a type of derivative called interest-rate swaps that no longer made sense for them.
Mr. Bernanke offered his remarks in a letter to members of Congress who had asked the Fed to create a facility to breathe new life into segments of the municipal bond market that were still paralyzed. But Mr. Bernanke said municipal debt had “unique characteristics” that made it “unlikely” that the Fed could be of much help.
He suggested that instead, Congress could consider setting up some other form of assistance for municipalities unable to restructure or refinance their debt, like a federal bond reinsurance program.
The bond markets took the Moody’s report in stride on Tuesday, apparently because institutional investors were already familiar with the problems described. New York City brought bonds to market on Tuesday and ended up selling much more than initially planned.
“New York City is potentially a poster child for economic woe, but that didn’t seem to bother investors,” said Thomas G. Doe, president of Municipal Market Advisors.
The Moody’s report “creates headline risk and a lot of confusion for investors,” he said, “but it’s not a sounding of the alarm for default.”
Published: April 7, 2009
Moody’s Investors Service assigned a negative outlook to the creditworthiness of all local governments in the United States, the agency said Tuesday, the first time it had ever issued such a blanket report on municipalities.
The report signaled how severely the economic downturn was affecting towns, counties and school districts across the nation.
While Moody’s regularly reports on the financial strength of various sectors of private industry, its analysts have in the past considered America’s tens of thousands of towns and local authorities too diverse for generalizations.
The report suggests that the ratings of many governments could be downgraded in the coming months, something that would make it more expensive for them to borrow money to finance their operations.
In the most extreme cases, municipalities might default on some of their obligations, as Jefferson County, Ala., has been threatening to do for a number of months.
Vallejo, Calif., declared bankruptcy last year and is being closely watched to see if it will set a legal precedent that other towns could follow.
Moody’s did not report on individual cities or towns, but its overview offered a general note of caution for investors who have bought municipal bonds seeking a safe stream of income in difficult financial markets.
In a special report made public on Tuesday, the agency cited revenues that are falling almost everywhere as a result of the economic downturn. But it also discussed the problems some municipalities had created for themselves by using complex financial products that seemed to be saving money at first, only to send costs soaring during the credit crisis.
In former boom states like California and Florida, the sharp decline in housing prices is translating into falling property-tax revenue, while in towns in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, revenues are off because of the collapse of the auto industry. Many local governments in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will lose significant revenue because they rely on the banking and financial services sectors for their tax bases. Moody’s said any municipality relying heavily on tourism, gambling or manufacturing was probably at risk of feeling a pinch.
The report suggested conflicts ahead between taxpayers struggling to keep their own households afloat and elected officials charged with balancing budgets, making their payrolls and protecting their credit ratings.
“Taxpayers, worried about their own financial condition, are more resistant than ever to increasing property or other local taxes,” the report observed.
The report’s publication coincided with the downgrading by Moody’s of the credit of the State of Illinois to the A level from double-A. Moody’s said Illinois was having difficulty managing its cash, and in recent weeks had been trying to push its scheduled pension contributions into the future. The state pension fund is already seriously underfunded.
The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, warned that local governments had probably lost their ability to lower their borrowing costs by linking their bonds to derivatives. Such bond packages had become popular in the last few years because they appeared to offer cities both the lower borrowing costs of variable-rate bonds and the predictability of fixed-rate bonds. But the structures broke down during last year’s market turmoil, leaving some municipalities staggering under more debt than they can afford.
Mr. Bernanke said he was aware that some governments with low credit ratings were completely shut out of the short-term financial markets, while others were stuck with a type of derivative called interest-rate swaps that no longer made sense for them.
Mr. Bernanke offered his remarks in a letter to members of Congress who had asked the Fed to create a facility to breathe new life into segments of the municipal bond market that were still paralyzed. But Mr. Bernanke said municipal debt had “unique characteristics” that made it “unlikely” that the Fed could be of much help.
He suggested that instead, Congress could consider setting up some other form of assistance for municipalities unable to restructure or refinance their debt, like a federal bond reinsurance program.
The bond markets took the Moody’s report in stride on Tuesday, apparently because institutional investors were already familiar with the problems described. New York City brought bonds to market on Tuesday and ended up selling much more than initially planned.
“New York City is potentially a poster child for economic woe, but that didn’t seem to bother investors,” said Thomas G. Doe, president of Municipal Market Advisors.
The Moody’s report “creates headline risk and a lot of confusion for investors,” he said, “but it’s not a sounding of the alarm for default.”
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: April 7, 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer borrowing plunged in February at a 3.5 percent annual rate, more than analysts had expected, as Americans cut back their use of credit cards by a record amount.
Skip to next paragraph
The New York Times
The Federal Reserve said Tuesday that consumer borrowing dropped at an annual rate of $7.48 billion in February from January, which amounts to a 3.5 percent annual rate of decline. Wall Street economists expected borrowing to slide by only $1 billion, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The decline was led by a record drop in borrowing on credit and charge cards, which fell at an annual rate of $7.8 billion, or 9.7 percent. That is the sharpest drop in dollar terms since federal records began in 1968, and the steepest percentage fall since 1978.
The report shows consumers reluctant to increase spending as employers cut millions of jobs in a recession.
Published: April 7, 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer borrowing plunged in February at a 3.5 percent annual rate, more than analysts had expected, as Americans cut back their use of credit cards by a record amount.
Skip to next paragraph
The New York Times
The Federal Reserve said Tuesday that consumer borrowing dropped at an annual rate of $7.48 billion in February from January, which amounts to a 3.5 percent annual rate of decline. Wall Street economists expected borrowing to slide by only $1 billion, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The decline was led by a record drop in borrowing on credit and charge cards, which fell at an annual rate of $7.8 billion, or 9.7 percent. That is the sharpest drop in dollar terms since federal records began in 1968, and the steepest percentage fall since 1978.
The report shows consumers reluctant to increase spending as employers cut millions of jobs in a recession.
Ich teile deine Ansicht, AL, dass die zuvorstehenden Quartalsberichte nicht postiv ausfallen werden. Selbst wenn sie "besser als erwartet" ausfallen. Negativ bleiben die allermeisten allemal.
Die Frage aber ob sie positiv überraschen hängt meiner Ansicht nach vor allem von der derzeitigen Marktstimmung (und damit Positionierung der Marktteilnehmer) ab.
Nach einem 4 wöchigem Anstieg haben wir momentan ein für einen Bärenmakrt äußerst bullishes Sentiment. Einfach auch aufgrund der Tatsache, dass offensichtlich viele wieder direkt oder indirekt auf Aktien sitzen. Negative Nachrichten können zu angsthaften Verkäufen führen, einfach weil Neues immer verunsichert. Dies könnten wieder weitere Teilnehmer zu verkäufen verleiten und so beginnt die Dominokette. Hätten wir einen 4 wöchigem Abstieg hinter uns, und der Großteil der Teilnehmer sitzt auf shorts, dann führen Nachrichten - egal ob gut oder schlecht, sehr häufig zu Eindeckungen - auch hier aus Angst oder Verunsicherung.
Ich habe selten gesehen, dass irgendwelche Nachrichten trends verstärken. Sie werden höchstens gedreht.
Von einer Einpreisung der schlechten Zahlen kann daher NIE die Rede sein, viel eher von der Aufnahmefähigkeit von positiven oder negativen Nachrichten. Man kann sich immer streiten was zu erst war: die schlechte Nachricht, oder der Bruch irgendeiner charttechnischen Unterstützung. Das ist die Frage nach der Henne und dem Ei.
Die Frage aber ob sie positiv überraschen hängt meiner Ansicht nach vor allem von der derzeitigen Marktstimmung (und damit Positionierung der Marktteilnehmer) ab.
Nach einem 4 wöchigem Anstieg haben wir momentan ein für einen Bärenmakrt äußerst bullishes Sentiment. Einfach auch aufgrund der Tatsache, dass offensichtlich viele wieder direkt oder indirekt auf Aktien sitzen. Negative Nachrichten können zu angsthaften Verkäufen führen, einfach weil Neues immer verunsichert. Dies könnten wieder weitere Teilnehmer zu verkäufen verleiten und so beginnt die Dominokette. Hätten wir einen 4 wöchigem Abstieg hinter uns, und der Großteil der Teilnehmer sitzt auf shorts, dann führen Nachrichten - egal ob gut oder schlecht, sehr häufig zu Eindeckungen - auch hier aus Angst oder Verunsicherung.
Ich habe selten gesehen, dass irgendwelche Nachrichten trends verstärken. Sie werden höchstens gedreht.
Von einer Einpreisung der schlechten Zahlen kann daher NIE die Rede sein, viel eher von der Aufnahmefähigkeit von positiven oder negativen Nachrichten. Man kann sich immer streiten was zu erst war: die schlechte Nachricht, oder der Bruch irgendeiner charttechnischen Unterstützung. Das ist die Frage nach der Henne und dem Ei.
Mein Blog:
turboluke.wordpress.com/
turboluke.wordpress.com/
Alles Schlechte in mehrere "Bad Banks", das Gute anschließend möglicherweise in eine einzige "Good Bank": Das ist die Idee von Kanzleramt, Finanzministerium und Rettungsfonds Soffin. Der Plan betrifft aber nicht nur die öffentlichen Institute, sondern auch eine Geschäftsbank.Die Bundesregierung prüft die komplette Neuordnung der Landesbanken. Nach Informationen der FTD haben Kanzleramt, Finanzministerium, Bundesbank und Rettungsfonds Soffin intensive Beratungen über ein Großkonzept für den gesamten öffentlich-rechtlichen Bankensektor aufgenommen.
Die Ministerpräsidenten, deren Länder die Haupteigner der größtenteils stark angeschlagenen Landesbanken sind, haben nach einem Treffen am Montag vergangener Woche einem solchen Prozess zugestimmt. .....
www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/...der-Landesbanken/498060.html
Die Ministerpräsidenten, deren Länder die Haupteigner der größtenteils stark angeschlagenen Landesbanken sind, haben nach einem Treffen am Montag vergangener Woche einem solchen Prozess zugestimmt. .....
www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/...der-Landesbanken/498060.html
eigentlich wollte ich ja schreiben Gemeinheiten,aber wer hat schon 500000.-Jahreseinkommen,also immer druff uff die Grossen
Der Finanzminister will härter gegen vermögende Steuerhinterzieher im Inland vorgehen. Der Minister plant, den Behörden bei Privatleuten mit Jahreseinkünften über 500.000 Euro Steuerprüfungen künftig auch ohne besonderen Anlass zu gestatten.Außerdem will Peer Steinbrück (SPD) diese Gruppe dazu verpflichten, Aufzeichnungen und Unterlagen über ihre Einkünfte sechs Jahre lang aufzuheben
www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/
Der Finanzminister will härter gegen vermögende Steuerhinterzieher im Inland vorgehen. Der Minister plant, den Behörden bei Privatleuten mit Jahreseinkünften über 500.000 Euro Steuerprüfungen künftig auch ohne besonderen Anlass zu gestatten.Außerdem will Peer Steinbrück (SPD) diese Gruppe dazu verpflichten, Aufzeichnungen und Unterlagen über ihre Einkünfte sechs Jahre lang aufzuheben
www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/
so ein Resumee macht Harvard Law School Professor Elisabeth Warren vom Kongress Oversight Panel.
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- A congressional panel overseeing the U.S. financial rescue suggested that getting rid of top executives and liquidating problem banks may be a better way to solve the economic crisis.
The Congressional Oversight Panel, in a report released yesterday, also said the Treasury may be relying on too rosy an economic scenario to guide its $700 billion bailout, and declared that the success of the program after six months is “mixed.” Three of the group’s members disagreed with at least some of the findings.
“All successful efforts to address bank crises have involved the combination of moving aside failed management and getting control of the process of valuing bank balance sheets,” the panel, headed by Harvard Law School Professor Elizabeth Warren, said in its report.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/...03&sid=aJJ_MkIv9VvA&refer=us
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- A congressional panel overseeing the U.S. financial rescue suggested that getting rid of top executives and liquidating problem banks may be a better way to solve the economic crisis.
The Congressional Oversight Panel, in a report released yesterday, also said the Treasury may be relying on too rosy an economic scenario to guide its $700 billion bailout, and declared that the success of the program after six months is “mixed.” Three of the group’s members disagreed with at least some of the findings.
“All successful efforts to address bank crises have involved the combination of moving aside failed management and getting control of the process of valuing bank balance sheets,” the panel, headed by Harvard Law School Professor Elizabeth Warren, said in its report.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/...03&sid=aJJ_MkIv9VvA&refer=us
www.bloomberg.com/apps/...sid=aBBqKU6NGu8w&refer=exclusive
man kann sich ja einer gewissen Schadenfreude nicht erwehren...
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Champagne and caviar are out in Moscow, and vodka and pelmeni dumplings are back in.
Rich Russians, stung by the end of the biggest economic boom in their history, are tempering the opulent lifestyles that made the city of 10 million the bling capital of Europe.
Demand for private jets and $500,000-a-week yachts has collapsed, while a survey by restaurant consulting group Restcon found revenue at high-end eateries has halved. Luxury-clothing boutiques selling brands such as Alexander McQueen and Stella McCartney are closing down.
“A new lifestyle mentality is taking shape,” said Roman Trotsenko, 38, the millionaire founder of airport builder Novaport. “People aren’t really in the mood to party.”
Moscow had 74 billionaires a year ago, more than any other city in the world. Now it has 27, according to Forbes magazine. The 25 richest Russians lost a combined $230 billion during six months last year as the value of their companies plunged along with commodity prices, according to Bloomberg calculations. .....
man kann sich ja einer gewissen Schadenfreude nicht erwehren...
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Champagne and caviar are out in Moscow, and vodka and pelmeni dumplings are back in.
Rich Russians, stung by the end of the biggest economic boom in their history, are tempering the opulent lifestyles that made the city of 10 million the bling capital of Europe.
Demand for private jets and $500,000-a-week yachts has collapsed, while a survey by restaurant consulting group Restcon found revenue at high-end eateries has halved. Luxury-clothing boutiques selling brands such as Alexander McQueen and Stella McCartney are closing down.
“A new lifestyle mentality is taking shape,” said Roman Trotsenko, 38, the millionaire founder of airport builder Novaport. “People aren’t really in the mood to party.”
Moscow had 74 billionaires a year ago, more than any other city in the world. Now it has 27, according to Forbes magazine. The 25 richest Russians lost a combined $230 billion during six months last year as the value of their companies plunged along with commodity prices, according to Bloomberg calculations. .....
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