Citigroup, incidentally, which has just posted a Q4 net loss of $8.29bn, had $135bn in Level 3 assets as of September. No word yet on changes to its Level 3 assets.....
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/16/51258/the-fine-print/
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Auch Aktien der Bank of America zogen vorbörslich an. Die US-Großbank ist zwar im vierten Quartal überraschend tief in die roten Zahlen gerutscht. Dies rücke jedoch angesichts des kolossalen Hilfspaketes für die Bank of America in den Hintergrund, sagte Martin Slaney, Leiter des Derivatehandels bei Global Forex Trading (GFT) in London.
1,2,3 Rettungspaket und schon ist die Firma über den Berg. Wer investiert denn jetzt schon, Daytrader oder Milliardären mit zuviel Geld. Warum eigentlich ein Rettungspaket vom Staat wenn es noch genug Freiwillige gibt die scheinbar ausreichend Geld für Aktien haben?
ausgestanden. Vermutlich stehen wir erst am Anfang. Meine Vermögensausrichtung -die bekannt sein dürfte- zeigt meine grundsätzlich negative Haltung zur Finanzmarktstabiliät.
Den Bundesanleihen, US Treas. oder auch andere Staatsanleihen kann ich in diesen Zeiten einfach nicht als Hort der Stabilität erkennen. Diese Auffassung wird wie der Markt zeigt nur von einer Minderheit vertreten. Jeder Sachwert ist sicher eine bessere Anlage als eine Staatanleihe die nur durch die Ausgabe neuer Anleihen beglichen werden kann.
Gruß
Permanent
Market Commentary
Don't Get Ambushed by Optimism
By Tim Melvin
Street.com Contributor
1/16/2009 9:59 AM EST
The only real surprise to me is that anybody is surprised. Was there someone who really thought Bank of America (BAC) was going to be able to digest both Countrywide and Merrill Lynch? There was no way the bank ever had the capital to absorb two of last year's biggest disasters without additional government help.
Is there someone out there who is really surprised that the black hole known as Citigroup (C) is breaking up and unlikely to exist much longer? The supermarket approach of financial services has not worked for anyone yet. Did you think that by adding leverage and risk, it would work for Citigroup?
Look at every area of the current credit problems, and Citi is a major player. It has taken billions from foreign investors, turned to the government for billions more, and still the losses continue. Putting more money into the company now is akin to giving your kid a souped-up muscle car as a reward for crashing the family sedan. Is there really someone out there who is surprised that the government has failed to fix the banking industry?
Some of the media talking heads were surprised by the rise in unemployment claims on Thursday. New claims came in at 524,000, ahead of expectations of 500,000. First, the analysts have missed this number continuously. Second, did someone think there was an unexpected source of strength out there [Metro, listen to this - A.L.] and that some industry mysteriously added jobs last month?
Look at the layoffs announced just Wednesday and Thursday. Seagate Technology (STX) is laying off 6% of its workforce. Meade Westvaco (MWV) is letting 10% of its employees go. There will be more layoffs out of financial services in the first quarter as well. We are a long way from any suggested fiscal stimulus creating my jobs, if in fact it ever occurs. I believe that any real job growth has to come from the private sector, and as long as the government is forcing out private capital, it's going to be difficult for this to occur.
As one of my fellow contributors pointed out yesterday in Columnist Conversation, almost all of the talking heads, with the notable and eternal exception of Larry Kudlow, are surprised by the negative news and resulting declines in the stock market.
After the little rally at year-end carried us into the first week, the S&P 500 has moved straight down, shedding 100 points. After we celebrated the death of high volatility last week, commentators are surprised that the VIX has spiked yet again. The swirling negativity and rise in volatility tell me that we are highly likely to have an oversold bounce sometime soon. It will carry just long enough for everyone to get excited about the possibility of a recovery, and then surprise them all by failing to new lows.
I said on Wednesday that I see no reason for stocks to move substantially higher. There is going to be a rally off the oversold conditions, but chasing it will be injurious to your account balance, in my opinion. Personally, I am holding out until Kudlow is bearish to get aggressive again.
I have said for almost a year now that I want to be bullish. I have a good friend in Chicago who is only comfortable on the short side of the market. He can go home at night short tens of thousands of shares of Apollo Group (APOL) or another highflier, and sleep like a baby. If he is long 100 shares of Dow Chemical (DOW) , it is guaranteed that my phone rings around midnight so we can discuss the company's balance sheet.
I have always been the opposite. I am naturally bullish. I spend all my time looking for gems like Darling International (DAR) and debt-free companies trading below tangible book value. I have a natural long-side bias. But the outlook for real estate and corporate earnings keeps me cautious.
The biggest lesson I have learned over the years is to avoid the big negative surprises. There will always be little ones. A small earnings miss in a company where your appraisal value is twice the current stock market price is not that a big a deal in the long run. If you can avoid the big negatives, the big positives over the years like a surprise takeover will be a significant source of excess returns. A disastrous plunge in the overall market when you are massively long can be.
I am well aware that I could be wrong, and the next rally turns into a bull market. I am wiling to miss the first few percentage points of a bull in lieu of being caught in the full embrace of an outraged bear.
Pay attention to what is happening in the world and in the markets. Avoid surprises.
als Entschädigung einen Amazon-Gutschein für den Bezug des Buches
Benjamin Graham: "The intelligent investor".
It's never too late to start a happy childhood.
Nach einer Rekordwoche am Primärmarkt für europäische Staatsanleihen wird
kommende Woche vom 6. in den 5. Gang runtergeschaltet. Griechenland syndiziert
eine 5-jährige Anleihe. Wir glauben, dass zumindest 3 Mrd. EUR bei einem Zinssatz
von über 5 % angestrebt werden. Frankreich auktioniert am Donnerstag eine neue
5-jährige BTAN, stockt gleichzeitig eine 1,5 und eine 2,5-jährige BTAN auf und auktioniert
dann eine Stunde später noch zwei OATi/ei. Das Volumen dieser fünf Anleihen
sollte zusammen bei etwa 8 Mrd. EUR liegen. Da keine Rückzahlungen und nur bescheidene
0,1 Mrd. EUR an Kuponzahlungen anstehen, steigt die Nettoverschuldung
weiter. Deutlich aktiver geht es am Geldmarkt zu: Deutschland führt erstmalig eine
9-Monats-BuBill-Auktion über 5 Mrd. EUR durch. Mit den Auktionen in Frankreich,
Spanien, Portugal und den Niederlanden werden 25 Mrd. EUR auktioniert. Dem
stehen etwa 12 Mrd. EUR an Fälligkeiten gegenüber. Die Emissionstätigkeit staatsgarantierter
Banktitel setzt sich mit Anleihen aus Deutschland und Österreich unvermindert
fort.
Quelle: HSBC Trinkaus
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,601658,00.html Amerikanische Notenbanker nehmen Maß, wo sollen denn wohl die Nullen hin?
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