Der USA Bären-Thread

Die gestrigen Hauptgewinner im SPX waren "Eintagsfliegen". Heute liegen alle wieder deutlich im Minus.

finance.yahoo.com/news/...ry-unlikely-v-shaped-135939850.html

- und in Florida sind die Todesfälle heute mit 156 auf Rekordhoch.

www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/...obal-total-tops-135-million

MW: Netflix Inc. logged another blockbuster quarter Thursday with the addition of 10.1 million new paid subscribers and a significant jump in revenue, and rewarded one of its most important executives with a promotion, but shares declined in after-hours trading on fears of slowing growth and a miss on profit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY9fqzPMgOQ
► Darum geht's im Video:

00:00 ► #DAX & Co - sind die Kursgewinne nicht übertrieben / zu optimistisch?
02:22 ► DAX oder MDAX - wer ist attraktiver?
04:11 ► Lufthansa im MDAX gelandet - Indexanpassungen
08:05 ► #Wirecard-Aktien - was tun nach Bilanzskandal und Kursdesaster?
11:25 ► #Wasserstoff-Branche - jetzt noch einsteigen?
13:58 ► Wie nachhaltig ausgerichtet ist das Depot von Beate Sander?

im Dax hat man nur Gewinne gemacht mit den Dividenden....

Niederländischer Regierungschef stellt weitreichende Forderungen beim EU-Gipfel
de.marketscreener.com/boerse-nachrichten/...ipfel--30941631/#
"BRÜSSEL (dpa-AFX) - Der niederländische Ministerpräsident Mark Rutte hat hohe Hürden für eine Einigung auf einen europäischen Milliardenplan gegen die Corona-Krise aufgebaut. Als Bedingung für Wiederaufbau-Hilfen an EU-Staaten forderte Rutte am Freitag vor dem EU-Gipfel eine "absolute Garantie", dass die Empfänger Reformen nicht nur versprochen, sondern bereits umgesetzt haben.

Die Niederlande haben vor allem Bedenken gegen den Plan, 750 Milliarden Euro als Schulden im Namen der EU aufzunehmen und dann zum Großteil als Zuschuss an Krisenstaaten zu vergeben. "Wir glauben nicht an dieses Zuschuss-basierte System", sagte Rutte in Brüssel. "Wenn Kredite bis zu einem gewissen Grad in Zuschüsse umgewandelt werden müssen, dann sind Reformen umso wichtiger und die absolute Garantie, dass sie wirklich stattgefunden haben."....

aha deswegen will Macron mit Rutte vor dem Termin sprechen ...

"....Fortune reports a Texas man received almost $1 million in PPP loans to support 51 employees at his "Texas Barbecue" company to payout salaries during months of lockdowns.
The only problem, Joshua Argires, who received $956,250, never had a BBQ company nor any employees, but received the money and deposited in Coinbase to trade cryptocurrency. ...
During the PPP disbursements period, we outlined how some Americans who received Trump stimulus checks were taking the money and using it for "securities trades." The rise of daytraders, as Goldman strategists have recently pointed could explain the surge in small trades over the last several months. It seems like President Trump's CARES Act partially funded the boom in day trading during the pandemic. With Nasdaq at new highs, well, mission accomplished Mr. President. "

www.zerohedge.com/crypto/...lion-dollar-ppp-scam-trade-crypto

"...a simple comparison between Belgium and Sweden—nations with rather similar populations—reveals that Belgium suffered far worse than Sweden from the coronavirus.

Comparing the epidemic curve in Belgium (11.5m pop), which locked down early on 17 Mar, and Sweden (10.2m pop), with no lockdown. Chart depicts deaths by date of occurrence, with Sweden per capita adjusted. Total per million: Belgium (844); Sweden (547). twitter.com/pwyowell/status/1281961288147570689

The reason Sweden is a “cautionary tale” and Belgium is not is because Belgium followed the script. Early in the pandemic, Belgian officials closed all non-essential business and enforced strict social distancing rules. All non-emergency workers were told to stay home. Shopping was limited to a single family member. Individuals could leave for medical reasons or to walk a pet or get a brief bit of exercise—so long as social distancing was maintained.
These lockdown protocols, the BBC reported, were strictly enforced by Belgian police using “drones in parks and fines for anyone breaking social distancing rules.”

A simple comparison between New York and Sweden shows the Empire State has suffered far worse from COVID-19 than the Swedes. Yinon Weiss, an entrepreneur and founder of Rally Point, recently compared Sweden and New York using data from the COVID Tracking Project.
Here’s the good news: You can shut down businesses or keep them open. Close schools or stay in session. Wear masks or not. The virus will make its way through in either case, and if we protect the elderly then deaths will be spared. pic.twitter.com/AVg0Vu8aH2
— Yinon Weiss (@yinonw) July 13, 2020
If flattening the curve was the primary goal of policymakers, Sweden was largely a success. New York, on the other hand, was not, despite widespread closures and strict enforcement of social distancing policies.
fee.org/articles/...e-and-new-york-failed/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk_

17.07.2020, 11:12:00 (dpa-AFX)

Fachleute rechnen wegen der Corona-Krise mit einem noch tieferen Absturz der Wirtschaftsleistung im Euroraum. Wie die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) am Freitag in Frankfurt mitteilte, erwarten von ihr befragte Experten für dieses Jahr eine wirtschaftliche Schrumpfung im Währungsraum um durchschnittlich 8,3 Prozent. In der vorherigen Befragung drei Monate zuvor war nur ein Rückgang um 5,5 Prozent erwartet worden.

Für kommendes Jahr wird dafür eine etwas stärkere Erholung erwartet. Statt eines Zuwachses der Wirtschaftsleistung von 4,3 Prozent wird jetzt mit einem Anstieg um 5,7 Prozent gerechnet. Die Steigerung würde damit nicht ausreichen, um den Einbruch des Jahres 2020 auszugleichen. Die Wachstumserwartungen für 2022 stiegen von 1,7 auf 2,4 Prozent.

Die Inflation dürfte über den gesamten Prognosezeitraum unter dem Zielwert der EZB von knapp zwei Prozent liegen. Die Arbeitslosigkeit soll demnach erst im Jahr 2022 sinken.

Die EZB befragt alle drei Monate zahlreiche Wirtschaftsexperten innerhalb und außerhalb der Finanzbranche nach ihren konjunkturellen Einschätzungen. Die aktuelle Umfrage wurde vom 30. Juni bis zum 6. Juli durchgeführt./bgf/jkr/stw

***
Ich erwarte mir da nicht allzu viel. Entscheidend sind in diesem NEUEN System die Zentralbanken. Drucken sie ist alles "gut"... falls nicht, Gute Nacht.

"We’ve done more testing than any other country and bragged a lot about doing so; but no one seems to have survived to give a proper interpretation of the results.
To begin with, the tests currently in use do not test for the entire virus, rather they just test for various fragments of it. Many of the results are thus false, sometimes false positives and sometimes false negatives.
This means one has to interpret their results with caution. Our medical authorities, to say nothing of our political ones, don’t seem to be able to do this.....In order to know the PPV—i.e., the percent likelihood that a positive test is a true positive—the sensitivity of the test must be known as well as prevalence of the disease, at least to an approximate degree. According to a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine, the sensitivity of the tests for COVID-19 is about 70 percent.A test for COVID-19 that is 70 percent sensitive will only catch 70 percent of the tested subjects with the disease. Therefore, 30 percent will falsely test negative.
The Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker that is widely used and quoted considers a confirmed test to be equal to a positive test. This is an error of epic dimensions for the reasons just stated....It should be obvious from the data above that all the testing we have done and continue to do has likely confused more than enlightened. ....we have to coexist with it while not destroying society, socially and economically, in the process. We will also have to admit that our current testing regime has alarmed the planet without contributing a health benefit."
mises.org/wire/false-positive-panic-over-covid-19

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/...oxford-russia-covid-19/#
web.de/magazine/news/coronavirus/...en-schutz-bieten-34893418
"Er regt demnach sowohl die Bildung von spezifischen Antikörpern als auch von T-Zellen an - beide sind für die Immunabwehr wichtig.Zuletzt hatten Studien gezeigt, dass die Anzahl von sogenannten neutralisierenden Antikörpern im Blut nach einer Infektion offenbar relativ schnell absinkt. Was das für eine mögliche Impfung bedeutet, ist zwar unklar, Experten hatten aber in diesem Kontext auf die Bedeutung von T-Zellen für die Langzeit-Immunität hingewiesen.
Die Wissenschaftler wollten ihre Ergebnisse zum Vakzin ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 am Montag in der Medizin-Fachzeitschrift "The Lancet" veröffentlichen. Ob das Mittel tatsächlich vor einer Infektion schützt, wird momentan in einer Phase III-Studie an mehreren Tausend Freiwilligen in Brasilien getestet...."

"Überschuldung" gegen den Wirkstoff "Frischgeld" zunehmend resistent.

"Wie die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) am Freitag in Frankfurt mitteilte, erwarten von ihr befragte Experten für dieses Jahr eine wirtschaftliche Schrumpfung im Währungsraum um durchschnittlich 8,3 Prozent."
-------------
Hat die EZB schon die zweite Welle von Corona eingerechnet?
Nur gut, dass keiner weiß, dass ich Europäischen Zentral Beschiss heiß.

Vgl. dazu den gestrigen Höhenflug in # 087.

Den Daumen hat heute die US-Seuchenbehörde CDC gesenkt. Analysten rechnen damit, dass Kreuzfahrtschiffe in USA frühestens im 2. Q. 2021 wieder regulären Betrieb aufnehmen.

Cruise stocks drop after CDC extends no sail order

Shares of cruise operators fell in premarket trading Friday, after the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) extended its cruise ship "no sail order" through September 2020 amid a surge in new COVID-19 cases. The CDC's previous order was set to expire on July 24. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH, -15.62% dropped 2.7% ahead of the open, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, -7.57% shed 2.6% and Carnival Corp. CCL, -9.72% ...  SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Patrick Scholes said the CDC's extended order "should not be too much of a surprise," as it comes after the last month's announcement by Cruise Lines International Association of an agreement to voluntarily extend the suspension of operations from U.S. ports until Sept. 15. "We continue to believe that sailings will not resume in quantity in North America until at least 2Q21," Scholes wrote in a note to clients....

Während der regulären US-Handelszeiten (grün) bewegt sich der SP-500 meist in engen Grenzen.

Das große "Lifting" wird außerhalb der regulären US-Handelszeiten (aus US-Sicht: nachts) mit Future-Gepushe (rot) erzeugt.

As soon as it became clear that the Swedish state had no plans to implement harsh lockdowns, global media organizations like the New York Times have implemented what can only be described as an ideological jihad against Sweden.
For many weeks, there has been an incessant drumbeat of articles with titles touting the "the failure of the country's no-lockdown coronavirus strategy," that "Sweden Has Become the World's Cautionary Tale," and "How Sweden Screwed Up."

It is common to read articles stating that Sweden has one of the world's worst death rates for COVID-19.
his, however, remains a matter of perspective.
Sweden's total deaths per million in population as of July 14 is 549. That's considerably lower than the deaths per million rate in the UK, which is 662, and in Spain, which is 608. In Belgium, the death rate is 884. Moreover, the Sweden deaths per million is many times better than the rates found in New Jersey and New York: 1,763 and 1,669.....
Meanwhile, the evidence that lockdowns actually work remains spotty at best. The results we get from lockdown countries vary wildly, yet commentators ignore this and stick to a dogmatic refrain: lockdowns always work, and Sweden "screwed up."

Now, global "experts," such as those at the World Health Organization (WHO), are claiming that Sweden is among the countries most likely to have a resurgence in COVID-19.
So far, there is no evidence of this at all. Two weeks after the WHO's prediction, both cases and deaths in Sweden continue to trend downward.

mises.org/power-market/...o-lockdown-policy-ignores-key-facts

oder was.
Nix passiert,
das ist Grausam.

www.finanztrends.info/biontech-aktie-unglaublicher-hammer-2/

In meinem etwas erweiterten Umfeld höre ich:
1.) Ich setz mich doch nicht mehr in einen Flieger...
2.) Ich lass mich doch nicht mehr von so einem schwimmenden Knast aufnehmen...
Ups.
Selbst hartgesottenste Kreuzfahrer schwören...nie wieder...
Wenn ich das mal so hochrechne...

Handelsblatt
18.000 Abonnenten
Bundesfinanzminister Olaf Scholz hat schon im Februar 2019 von dem Verdacht gegen Wirecard gewusst. Das geht aus einem Sachstandsbericht hervor, der dem Finanzausschuss des Bundestags übermittelt wurde.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2ILY6auSto
------------------
Wenn das nochmals bestätigt wird, kann Scholz in Rente gehen.
Wirecard Aktionäre können sich ihre Verluste bei Scholz abholen.

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/nyregion/...html?auth=login-google
"..The personal assistant, Tyrese Devon Haspil, 21, was expected to be charged in a criminal complaint with second-degree murder and other crimes.
Detectives believe that the motive for the killing stemmed from Mr. Saleh’s having discovered that the assistant had stolen tens of thousands of dollars from him, despite the fact that Mr. Saleh had not reported the man and had set up what amounted to a repayment plan for him to return the money, one of the officials said....the killer used his employer’s credit card to pay for a car to a Home Depot, on West 23rd Street in Manhattan, to buy cleaning supplies to sanitize the crime scene, the official said. The killer returned to Mr. Saleh’s apartment the next day to dismember the body and clean up....Security video taken from inside the elevator shows the killer later using a battery-operated portable vacuum cleaner in an apparent effort to remove any traces of his presence, the official said.

Mr. Saleh was born in Saudi Arabia to Bangladeshi parents who eventually settled near Poughkeepsie, N.Y., a small city on the Hudson River.After graduating from Bentley University in Waltham, Mass., in 2009, he built an app called PrankDial that allowed users to send prerecorded prank calls. Mr. Saleh said he eventually built PrankDial into a $10 million business......"

away
Millionen Amerikaner verlieren ihre Arbeitslosenunterstützung Ende Juli.

Millions of unemployed Americans face imminent catastrophe.
Some of us knew from the beginning that Donald Trump wasn’t up to the job of being president, that he wouldn’t be able to deal with a crisis that wasn’t of his own making. Still, the magnitude of America’s coronavirus failure has shocked even the cynics.One key element in our deadly debacle has been extreme shortsightedness: At every stage of the crisis Trump and his allies refused to acknowledge or get ahead of disasters everyone paying attention clearly saw coming.....
And now another disaster — this time economic rather than epidemiological — is just days away.....
enhanced unemployment benefits have been a crucial lifeline to tens of millions of Americans. Unfortunately, all of those beneficiaries are now just a few days from being thrown overboard.

For that $600 weekly supplement — which accounts for most of the expansion of benefits — applies only to benefit weeks that end “on or before July 31.” July 31 is a Friday. State unemployment benefit weeks typically end on Saturday or Sunday. So the supplement will end, in most places, on July 25 or 26, and millions of workers will see their incomes plunge 60 percent or more just a few days from now....
But neither Senate Republicans nor the White House has shown any sense of urgency about the looming crisis. Why?Part of the answer is that Trump and his officials are, as always, far behind the coronavirus curve. They’re still talking about a rapid, V-shape recovery that will bring us quickly back to full employment,....
This disaster didn’t need to happen; but you can say the same thing about most of what has gone wrong in this country lately.
www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/opinion/...onomy-unemployment.html

lange haben wir nix gehört von Paul Krugman

The pendulum swings back toward fear
As the pandemic persists, more and more companies have filed for bankruptcy protection, following in the footsteps of Hertz, J. Crew and Neiman Marcus. But financial restructuring advisers — the bankers and lawyers who help troubled companies repair their balance sheets or slog through Chapter 11 — say that they expect filings to accelerate. If anything, we’re now in the lull before the storm.

About 3,600 companies filed for Chapter 11 in the first half of 2020, more than any year since 2012, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute...But cases dropped last month. Why? Advisers cited the federal government’s programs for stabilizing the economy and credit markets, as well as efforts by companies to bolster their cash by drawing down their credit lines and issuing new bonds.
Yet as coronavirus cases surge again, an uptick in filings may follow....Many companies that saved themselves by borrowing more money are now in a bind: They have mortgaged nearly all their available assets, leaving little wiggle room...."

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/business/...-filings-pandemic.html

geht es demnächst um weitere Wirtschaftshilfen wobei es ja Geldgeschenke und keine Kredite sein sollen. Nur die Niederlande weigern sich, den Pleitestaaten Geld zu schenken.

In den Medien und an den Börsen wird davon ausgegangen, dass dieses, als letztes denkendes Mitglied zum Einlenken bewegt wird.

Bisher gab es doch immer nur Kredite ( ausser dem Kauf von faulen Anleihen durch die EZB natürlich) oder?
Dies wäre somit ein entscheidender Schritt zur totalen Transferunion...
Wie hoch schätzt Ihr die Chance, dass die Niederlande konsequent bleiben?

Falls ich was verkehrt aufgefasst und dargestellt habe, bitte berichtigen.