Krediten, die vor sich hinfaulten, dank der Corona-Stimulusgelder seit März aber eine überraschende Wende zum Besseren hinlegten (Chart unten).
Aufgeschoben ist freilich nicht aufgehoben - daher "extend and pretend". Die Zinsen für Auto-Subprime-Kredite liegen im zweistelligen Bereich, während das Kollateral (das Auto) an Wert verliert und vor sich hinrostet.
wolfstreet.com/2020/07/13/...d-by-forbearance-stimulus-money/
...This is the miraculous result of stimulus money, the $600 a week in extra unemployment compensation, and forbearance (Duldung vorübergebender Nicht-Bedienung der Kredite), none of which are permanent features of our economic landscape.
Stimulus money eventually runs out, and the extra $600 a week expires at the end of July. Extensions or different versions might get concocted in Congress. But even those, if they happen at all, will end.
And “extend and pretend” can get stretched for a while, like a rubber band, but at some point, there is a reckoning. And with auto loans, it gets dicey in a hurry. Forbearance is just a delay, and during the delay, the auto loan balances grow as interest is added to the principal. With subprime auto loans, the interest rates are high, usually into the double digits, and the interest that is added to the principal adds up quickly. But the vehicle – the collateral for the loan – just loses value. With auto loans, lenders cannot play this game for long before they’re even more deeply in the hole....
Over the next few months, during the worst unemployment crisis in a lifetime, we might well see a further miraculous decline in the subprime auto loan delinquency rates, as auto loans in forbearance are market “current.” But then, when stimulus runs out and forbearance ends, it will come unglued with a vengeance.