Der USA Bären-Thread

Es ist seit 2014 eigentlich alles normal, nur der SP-500 hat temporär nach oben durchgedreht. Die Höhen-Krise ist beendet, sobald die blaue Linie (Öl) und die schwarze Linie (SP-500) wieder aufeinandertreffen.

Dieses "Aufeinandertreffen" - soviel sei jetzt schon verraten - wird sich übrigens in der Weise vollziehen, dass die schwarze Linie zur blauen runterkommt - und nicht etwa dadurch, dass die blaue zur schwarzen aufsteigt.

ist die Corona-Krise jetzt beendet. Man erkennt es auch daran, dass Klopapier wieder verfügbar ist.

Wie unterbelichtet sind eigentlich Analysten, die bei Ford mit 278 Mio. Gewinn rechneten, wenn tatsächlich 2 Milliarden Verlust kommen?

www.marketwatch.com/story/...miss-but-stock-surges-2020-04-17

Ford Motor Co warned Friday of a large surprise loss (LOL, A.L.) and a revenue miss... Ford said it expects report a first-quarter net loss of about $2 billion, while the FactSet consensus was for net income of $278.3 million. The automaker said revenue is expected to be about $34 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $35.4 billion. Ford said it plans to report first-quarter results, as well as estimates on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on its business, on April 28...

Gemäß Singer soll das Tief des laufenden Bärenmarktes mindestens 50 % unter dem ATH von Februar liegen, also SP-500 unter 1700.

www.reuters.com/article/...ebruary-highs-letter-idUSKCN21Y23O

Exclusive: Hedge fund Elliott says stocks could fall 50% from February highs - letter

BOSTON (Reuters) - Billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management said global stocks could tumble further, ultimately losing half or more of their value from February’s high, as the world braces for the deepest recession since the 1930s-era Great Depression.

...Over nearly four decades Singer and his team have been known as steady and reliable investors who protect capital for pension funds, college endowments and private investors by returning an average of 13% a year.

In the first quarter, the Elliott International fund gained 2.2% in the first quarter while its Elliott Associates fund was up 1.6%.

The average hedge fund lost roughly 8% percent during the same time, data from Hedge Fund Research show.

The firm said it hedged its portfolio with protection trades on credit, equities, rates and gold. This helped offset declines in distressed debt and equity trades...

Bejubelt. Das hat mich etwas  stutzig gemacht. Sollte man aufjedenfall kaufen mach der 40 Prozent Rallye  

As Record Hedge Fund Selling Meets Furious CTAs Buying
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...elling-meets-furious-ctas-buying

"One of the reasons cited for the explosive move overnight in futures - along with the sketchy STATnews/Feuerstein leak of Gilead's remdesivir coronavirus trial - is optimism over the upcoming reopening of the US. However, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott writes this morning, "the “TL;DR version” of the U.S. reopening guidelines = there is no “plan,” as there are 1) no deadlines; there are 2) no guidelines or protocols to businesses on protective gear / temperature checks / testing / sanitizing; and 3) offers little to no federal assistance, with states being asked to “independently” secure PPE and medical equipment for their hospitals."
So why this tremendous surge in risk assets, which pushed Russell emini futures limit up overnight?

...according to Nomura's other quant, Masanari Takada, that someone is CTAs, with the strategist writing that trend-following buying has picked up speed in US equity futures markets, and CTAs appear to have flipped long not only on NASDAQ 100 futures but also on S&P 500 futures now. Which makes sense: CTAs, which are computer-driven models, do not care about such trivial facts as mass layoffs, millions of people infected with a deadly virus, and instead they only care if others are buying at which point they too join the buying frenzy, making them the dumbest of momentum-chasing investors. This pick-up in trend-following buying is getting a boost from the narrative among market participants having taken on a more positive tone, playing catch-up with a rebound that is already under way.

Nomura is skeptical that mere momentum will be sufficient, with Takeda writing that algos they may be, but CTAs cannot go against economic fundamentals for long:

....Zooming out a bit, we note that while CTAs’ trading decisions are technically driven, their trades that go against the direction of global economic momentum tend to end in failure. Looking specifically at historical trends in the relative positioning of CTAs in major equity futures (S&P 500 futures, Nikkei 225 futures, DAX futures) and major government bond futures (UST futures, JGB futures, Euro-bund futures), we find that when global economic growth momentum is collapsing (as it is now), CTAs take a more pronounced tilt towards bonds (overweighting long positions in bond futures).

Nomura predicts that CTAs as a group are likely to either:
execute an allocation shift by selling equity futures and buying bond futures (on the expectation of falling stock prices and falling bond yields); or
increase their gross exposure by continuing to buy equity futures while focusing even more intently on buying bond futures (on the expectation  of rising stock prices and falling bond yields).
the Japanese bank is taking the side of the humans, with Takeda warning that "expectations for a swift economic recovery could lead to a momentum crash."

Medizin-Nobelpreisträger Luc Montagnier, Entdecker des AIDS-Virus, sagt, das neue Corona-Virus sei offenbar im Wuhaner Labor als "Vektor" (Zwischenprodukt) für die Herstellung eines Impfstoffes gegen AIDS erzeugt worden - und zwar KÜNSTLICH erzeugt. Anschließend sei das Virus durch Unfall oder Schlamperei (evtl. mittels Infektion eines MItarbeiters) aus dem Labor entkommen.

Montagnier kam zu diesem Ergebnis, nachdem er das Genom von SARS-CoV-2 (neues Corona-Virus) eingehend untersucht hatte. Eine natürliche Entstehung schließt Montagnier aus, weil das Einbauen von HIV-Segmenten in SARS-CoV2 "nur im Labor" bewerkstelligt werden könne. Damit ist Chinas Erklärung, das Virus sei am Wuhaner Fischmarkt von einem Tier auf den Menschen übergesprungen, als Lüge enttarnt.

Indische Forscher hatten dies zuvor ebenfalls entdeckt, wurde aber politisch unter Druck gesetzt, ihre Veröffentlichung zurückzuziehen.

------------------------------

www.zerohedge.com/health/...-could-only-have-been-created-lab

Professor Luc Montagnier, 2008 Nobel Prize winner for Medicine, claims that SARS-CoV-2 is a manipulated virus that was accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Chinese researchers are said to have used coronaviruses in their work to develop an AIDS vaccine. HIV DNA fragments are believed to have been found in the SARS-CoV-2 genome.

...According to Professor Luc Montagnier, winner of the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2008 for “discovering” HIV as the cause of the AIDS epidemic together with Françoise Barré-Sinoussi, the SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that was manipulated and accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, in the last quarter of 2019.

According to Professor Montagnier, this laboratory, known for its work on coronaviruses, tried to use one of these viruses as a vector for HIV in the search for an AIDS vaccine!

“With my colleague, bio-mathematician Jean-Claude Perez, we carefully analyzed the description of the genome of this RNA virus,” explains Luc Montagnier, interviewed by Dr Jean-François Lemoine for the daily podcast at Pourquoi Docteur, adding that others have already explored this avenue:

Indian researchers have already tried to publish the results of the analyses that showed that this coronavirus genome contained sequences of another virus, … the HIV virus (AIDS virus), but they were forced to withdraw their findings as the pressure from the mainstream was too great...

In a challenging question Dr Jean-François Lemoine inferred that the coronavirus under investigation may have come from a patient who is otherwise infected with HIV.

"No," says Luc Montagnier, "in order to insert an HIV sequence into this genome, molecular tools are needed, and that can only be done in a laboratory."

According to the 2008 Nobel Prize for Medicine, a plausible explanation would be an accident in the Wuhan laboratory. He also added that the purpose of this work was the search for an AIDS vaccine....

Dafür spreche die ungewöhnliche Struktur von SARS-CoV-2. Das neue Virus enthält vier Aminosäuren, die sonst nicht in Corona-Viren vorkommen. Die könnten nur in
einem Biolabor hinzugefügt worden sein. Diese vier Aminosäuren machen das
Virus auch so stark ansteckend.

www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3880475

Taiwanese professor says Wuhan coronavirus likely man-made

National Taiwan University professor says Wuhan coronavirus could be synthetic

TAIPEI
(Taiwan News) — As the Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread like
wildfire across the globe, a National Taiwan University (NTU) professor
on Saturday (Feb. 22) said the virus is likely man-made, based on its unusual structure.

At
a seminar on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan
Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai, a professor at NTU's
College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that
the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute
of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab). He said that what
is known is that there are many deadly viruses being researched in the
facility, such as SARS and Ebola, and that China's track record with
safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the
past.

Fang said that COVID-19 is 96 percent similar to the bat
virus RaTG13, which is known to be housed at the lab. Fang said that
this in itself is not a smoking gun, as a genetic similarity of 99
percent would be required to declare them to be the same.

He said that a French team investigating COVID-19 had found that the
key difference between RaTG13 and COVID-19 was that the latter has four
additional amino acids not found in any other coronaviruses. Fang said that these four amino acids make the disease easier to transmit....

Leider nicht ganz.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker told Yahoo Finance on Friday that the U.S. economy should brace for “very bad” data in coming quarters, predicting a sharp contraction in U.S. GDP for 2020 amid the COVID-19 lockdown.
In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Harker said his economic forecast can change depending on how quickly medical sciences can come up with ways to address the coronavirus.
“If that happens sooner, the damage is less, but right now we’re looking at year-over-year, probably around 5% hit on GDP,” he said.

finance.yahoo.com/news/...2020-172228691.html?.tsrc=fin-notif

Das Konsumentenvertrauen ist komplett im Eimer und große versteckte Arbeitslosigkeit.

US-Studie: Millionen verlieren wegen Corona ihre Krankenversicherung
WASHINGTON (awp international) - Infolge des dramatischen Anstiegs der Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA haben einer Studie zufolge innerhalb eines Monats Millionen Menschen ihre Krankenversicherung verloren. Weil fast die Hälfte der Arbeitnehmer in den USA über den Arbeitgeber krankenversichert seien, hätten bis zu 9,2 Millionen Menschen ihren Schutz verloren oder könnten sich die neuen Beiträge wohl nicht mehr leisten, hiess es in der Studie des Instituts für Wirtschaftspolitik (EPI). Wegen der Corona-Krise haben in den USA seit Mitte März rund 22 Millionen Menschen Arbeitslosenhilfe beantragt.

Der führende demokratische Senator Bernie Sanders schrieb angesichts der Schätzung am Freitag auf Twitter, es sei "skandalös und nicht nachhaltig", dass die Krankenversicherung in den USA immer noch vom Arbeitgeber abhänge. Sanders setzt sich seit langem für eine umfassende staatliche Krankenversicherung ein. Die USA sind praktisch das einzige entwickelte Industrieland ohne eine solche Option.

Eine exakte Zahl, wie viele Menschen in den vergangenen Wochen ihre Krankenversicherung verloren haben, gab es zunächst nicht, weil die Daten nicht sofort zentral erfasst werden. Das Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik forderte in seiner am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Analyse, die Regierung müssten allen helfen, die ihren Job wegen der wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Corona-Epidemie verloren hätten. Ihnen müsse nun der Zugang zu den staatlichen Gesundheitsprogrammen Medicare und Medicaid ermöglicht werden, hiess es weiter./jbz/DP/he
awp.ch -> international

...
Riyadh verstärkt derweil nicht nur seinen Preiskampf in Asien, wo das Königreich zuletzt Russland aggressiv Marktanteile entwendet hat, wie aus dem jüngst veröffentlichten OPEC-Report zu entnehmen ist, sondern hat schon im März eine ganze Armada an VLCCs auf den Weg in die USA gebracht, was der lokalen Preissituation bei WTI nicht behilflich ist.
Tracking-Daten legen nahe, dass Saudi Aramco seine Exporte in die USA im April mehr als vervierfacht hat und mit fast 1,5 Millionen Barrel pro Tag wieder so viel liefert wie zuletzt 2014.
...

oel: der wti preis hat sich weiter von brent abgekoppelt, am markt steigen befürchtungen, dass die lager in cushing bald voll sein werden. einen etc auf wti auf die watchliste nehmen, um bei einem möglichen eintreffen dieser situation und einem alfälligen marktkollaps schnell reagieren zu können, ist  vielleicht keine schlechte idee.

Saudi Arabien hat die Schiffsstorage deutlicherhöht, bereits 60 Supertanker (VCCL), jeder mit 2 Millionen Barrel...gegen 25 bis 40 Anfang April und 10 im Februar
www.zerohedge.com/energy/...illion-barrels-doubling-two-weeks
"...Goldman recently predicted that landlocked producers may see oil prices go negative, as they run out of buyers or places where to store the oil, while tanker access to most Brent exporters means that the price of Brent will not drop materially below $20 - not all storage is equal either, and while Cushing and ARA commercial storage is expected to hit full in just a few months at the current rate of net supply, many producers are using water storage as a flexible alternative.
As a result, traders are now storing an estimated record 160 million barrels of oil on ships - double the level from two weeks ago as they seek to tackle a glut of stocks, Reuters reports as traders have rushed to find storage on land and at sea in what is believed to be the biggest oil glut in history.

The surge in water storage, which started with Saudi Arabia unleashing an armada of tankers last month to flood the world with cheap oil... has swept the globe and shipping sources say oil held in floating storage on tankers had reached at least 160 million barrels including 60 supertankers, aka very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which can each hold 2 million barrels. This compared with just 25 to 40 VLCCs already chartered with storage options at the start of April and fewer than 10 VLCCs in February, the sources said adding that smaller tankers were also being used, which was also boosting volumes being held at anchor.

angeblich hat Saudi Arabien den Preiskreig nur begonnen, nicht um Shale Produktion zu stoppen, sondern um die USA zu zwingen sich an die von Opec beschlossenen Kürzungen zu halten, was USA bisher ignoriert haben
www.zerohedge.com/energy/...udi-oil-price-war-fraud-and-farce

Millionen von Arbeitern haben keine Arbeitslosenversicherung oder haben nicht eingezahlt...
www.reuters.com/article/...mployment-safety-net-idUSKCN21U0Y0

Analysts expect nearly 30 million job losses this year due to stuttering work resumptions and plunging global demand, outpacing the 20-plus million layoffs during the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Beijing has fortified its jobless claims programme in the decade since the financial crisis erupted, tripling the pot of funds to which both employers and workers contribute to 581.7 billion yuan ($82.37 billion), according to the latest data.

But millions of workers have no contracts or have not been paying into the unemployment insurance scheme, meaning they will have to rely on their employers giving them compensation if they get laid off. Many will be forced to dip into savings or seek help from their extended family if they lose their jobs. Some 2.29 million people received unemployment insurance in January and February,In the same period, an estimated 5 million people lost their jobs..
Wang estimates another 22 million people may lose their jobs this year but only half will likely qualify for unemployment benefit, she said....
In Beijing, laid-off workers who have paid into unemployment insurance for long enough can expect up to 1,815 yuan ($257) per month but that is less than half the average wage of a migrant labourer in 2018, according to government data, and is less than the average monthly rent of around 2,500 yuan for a modest room in the Chinese capital....."

erst wenn die Infektionszahlen 14 Tage zurück gegangen sind ,die Testkapazität ausreichend ist und die Krankenhauskapazität ausreicht sind die Staaten bereit ,aber wieviele sind das ? keiner !
www.reuters.com/article/...s-health-experts-say-idUSKBN21Z383

"The governors of Michigan, Florida and other states outlined tentative steps on Friday to reopen their economies, a day after the White House issued guidelines to help states decide when to lift lockdown orders and allow firms to restart and workers to return to their jobs.
President Donald Trump, a Republican who is running for re-election in November, touted the guidelines as a blueprint for a reawakening of the economy, saying growth would soar like a “rocket ship” after the restart.

But the guidelines, and the ways in which experts say they fall short, suggest that revving activity back up to pre-pandemic levels will be anything but smooth or speedy.

States may be ready to end lockdowns once infections have declined for 14 straight days, availability of tests to detect the virus is stable or rising, and if there is enough hospital capacity to treat everyone who gets sick, the guidelines say.

They also call on states to be ready to test all healthcare workers and anybody with symptoms, as well as to be able to trace contacts for people who test positive for the virus.

How many states are ready for that? None, according to Harvard epidemiologist Bill Hanage,...."

sind symptomfrei !
"The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19,  the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.
...The figure is higher than the 25% to 50% range offered on April 5 by Dr. Anthony Fauci,...

einer starb, 5 sind im Hospital  ....überwiegend jüngere Männer auf dem Flugzeugträger

www.reuters.com/article/...ier-are-symptom-free-idUSKCN21Y2GB

nach 2 Milliarden Verlust im ersten Quartal...für 8,5 bis 9,625% Zinsen !
www.reuters.com/article/...auses-2-billion-loss-idUSKBN21Z2D6

"(Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N) on Friday raised $8 billion from corporate debt investors to shore up its cash reserves as the coronavirus outbreak pummeled vehicle sales and production, resulting in an estimated loss of about $2 billion for the first quarter....
In an environment where interest rates on cash savings are close to zero, Ford will pay investors interest of between 8.50% and 9.625% on the new debt securities..."