Aktienmarkt. Beide steigen durch die Geldschwemme parallel, obwohl sie sich normalerweise spiegelbildlich entwickeln. Roubini glaubt aber, dass der Bondmarkt richtig liegt (hohe Kurse wegen erwarteter Wachstumsschwäche) und der Aktienmarkt falsch (hohe Kurse wegen erwarter Wachstumsstärke).
Getreu seinem "Dr. Doom"-Image rechnet Roubini bezüglich des US-Wachstums eher mit negativen als mit positiven Überraschungen. Dann würde Aktien in der Tat unterperformen.
Die Fed hat laut Roubini die Wahl zwischen Teufel und Beelzebub. Erhöht sie die Zinsen zu früh, würgt sich die schwache US-Erholung gänzlich ab. Erhöht sie zu spät, könnten die Märkte zuvor eine Extremblase [die wir demnach aktuell noch nicht hätten...] ausbilden, die eine Rückabwicklung im 2008-Crash-Stil wahrscheinlich macht.
blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/06/10/...d-market-tell-you/
U.S. stocks and bonds have been giving different signals about the economy in what’s turning out to be a bit of “schizophrenia” for weary investors, according to renowned economist Nouriel Roubini.
Stocks have been plodding higher in 2014, even after a momentous rally last year, suggesting a positive outlook on economy and corporate health. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.02% is poised to cross 17,000 if stocks continue their run. Meanwhile, bond yields have fallen sharply for much of the year, defying the expectations of most investors, who expected interest rates to rise as the economy improved.
So which market is right? If forced to choose, Roubini would pick bonds, which are telegraphing slower economic growth, he said during a panel discussion Tuesday hosted by Aberdeen Asset Management.
“I am still of the view that most economic growth might surprise to the downside,” he said. The economist added that if equities rise another 30% this year, as the S&P 500 index SPX -0.03% did last year, we’d likely be in “frothy” territory.
Roubini, who co-founded and chairs Roubini Global Economics, is best known for predicting the collapse of the housing market, which spiraled into a financial crisis in 2008. While he is still prone looking for economic risks, he took a somewhat positive tone, in line with other comments he made recently expressing relative optimism about growth. He cited fading risks about the a breakup of the euro zone, declining worries about U.S. fiscal policy, and progress made by Japan in jump-starting its economy after a prolonged tangle with deflation.
Nonetheless, Roubini isn’t referred to as “Dr. Doom” for nothing. He gave a keynote speech outlining the six key risks he sees to the global economy. Two were devoted to the U.S. Federal Reserve; he suggested that as the central bank eventually normalizes monetary policy it could run into trouble if it moves too quickly — or too slowly. In other words, they’re damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.
The Fed could decide to raise its key lending rate — dragging a wide array of borrowing costs higher — if growth picks up, he said. Rates could also rise earlier if the new members of the central bank’s policy committee tack hawkish, as many of them are expecting to do. Either way, surprising the market with higher rates could bring growth to a screeching halt.
But if the Fed moves too slowly, it could risk encouraging the types of asset bubbles that led to the last financial crisis, he said. Roubini has said in the past that we are at the beginning of a credit bubble.
“It’s not a problem today, but it’s something to get concerned about” down the road, he said.
The other risks on his dashboard are ones he has talked about in the past: A hard landing for China as its economy matures, and the slowdown could be even sharper than expected; emerging markets, where tailwinds for those countries are turning into headwinds; geopolitical tensions, such as the crisis in Ukraine; and the rise of nationalist tendencies in many governments, particularly in Asia....
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