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Oracle beats the Tech Trend
Tuesday, December 12, 2000
Despite an onslaught of earnings warnings from tech companies lately, the consensus
expectation for Oracle (ORCL) is for at least a penny earnings surprise and possibly a two-cent
positive surprise.
Bert Hochfeld at Josephthal & Co., one of the more accurate analysts following Oracle, is one
of two analysts that have an official earnings estimate of $0.11 per share. Mr. Hochfeld told
clients recently that the company would meet his expectations with strong U.S. sales offset by
disappointing European sales.
The consensus among the 28 analysts is for Oracle to earn $0.10 per share on revenue of just
under $2.7 billion, yet even the more conservative analysts are optimistic. Gretchen Teagarden
at Salomon Smith Barney is one of the few analysts with an estimate below $0.10 per share,
but her revenue estimate is slightly above the consensus revenue estimate.
On Tuesday Chris Shilakes at Merrill Lynch told clients that he is projecting earnings of $0.10
per share on revenue of $2.68 billion. However, he added that revenue might be slightly better
than his projections and Oracle's continued improvement with operating margins should lead to
earnings of $0.11 to $0.12 per share.
Last week Jim Pickrel at Chase H & Q told clients that he expects the company to meet or beat
his earnings estimate of $0.10 per share and revenue estimate of $2.6 billion. He stated that
Oracle's "pipeline appears robust" and that the company should achieve 52% revenue growth or
better in its applications business.
The pressing issues regarding Oracle among the analysts are next quarter and the recent
management turnover. Mr. Pickrel stated Oracle's Senior Vice President Gary Bloom's departure
would not have much of an impact, but turnover in other key management positions is an issue.
Yet, the recent pact with CitiGroup (C) adds some confidence in the current team. Richard
Davis at Needham & Co. told clients recently that this quarter would be fine but still
downgraded Oracle's stock because of the departure of Bloom and Senior Vice President Ray
Lane reduces the company's earnings visibility and may encourage others to leave the company
as well.
Mr. Upin said that Oracle could have a tough February quarter and could see its toughest test
of its performance in the applications space in the May quarter. Yet, overall the analysts like
the stock and believe the recent stock price is a buying opportunity.
As result, the company will need to at least meet or beat the $0.11 Earnings Whisper number
and provide the analysts comfort with the current management team and the upcoming
quarters. If this can be accomplished during the conference call on Thursday, some analysts
believe the stock could reach $35 in the very near term. You may listen to Oracle's conference
call at www.nasdaq.com/reference/broadcast_oracle.htm beginning at 5:30 PM ET on
Thursday.
Gruß Dampf