|Es ist eine Hausse|
|Nur zeitlich begrenzter Aufwärtstrend|
|Kann ich nicht beurteilen|
|Egal - wer interessiert sich noch für Gold?!|
Gold und Goldminen: Ist eine Hausse im Gang oder ist der Anstieg des Goldpreises nur eine
Zugriffe: 12.625 / Heute: 2
|Goldman Sachs:||198,50 $||+3,10%|
|Perf. seit Threadbeginn:||+155,47%|
|Es ist eine Hausse|
|Nur zeitlich begrenzter Aufwärtstrend|
|Kann ich nicht beurteilen|
|Egal - wer interessiert sich noch für Gold?!|
Has the end come for gold?
The metal has dropped from its high of around 430 an ounce. Is this the end of that fabled & wonderful gold bull market? And yes, there are those investors who believe this now. Isn’t this what has happened after every gold run the past 20 years?
Do we all run out and buy real estate now & invest in tech stocks? And why not? Who should really dare to believe that this gold rally was ever anything more than a very short term rally?
And what is your personal opinion of gold’s recent plunge?
I know you, the reader, have an opinion of what you believe to be gold’s next step. Have you lost your confidence & called your broker to sell all your gold stocks?
But I am writing this article so I guess the burden rests on my shoulders to share what my personal opinions are concerning this recent adjustment. And what has just happened to the gold price? We have experienced a price correction. Nothing more & nothing less.
But do you know what?
It is when corrections such as these come that those investors with discipline are quickly separated from those with NO discipline.
Did you “jump?”
Did you go out & sell all your gold stocks? Corrections are inevitable & you better expect & know for certain that there are going to be dramatic swings in BOTH directions. And while we all like the “up” swings the best we better be prepared intellectually in advance before either of these swings occur.
But my question to you now is to ask yourself if there is something to be learned when these wild corrections arrive at our doorstep? Every event that comes in our lives we should consider as an opportunity to learn something new.
And this is why I say over & over & over again that an investor must have specifically a selling strategy planned well in advance before purchasing the first gold stock. Because I am a conservative I believe an investor should have a well prepared plan for selling at least some percentage of his gains as a stock rises.
I always loose patience when I read where folks are holding for gold’s peak before they even consider selling their first share. How do we know when gold will have reached its peak? We don’t & we should be pocketing at least a portion of our gains along the way. And that is just plain & simply the “conservative” thing to do.
It took me a while to be comfortable with ordering a computer via the postal mail but when I finally took the plunge & bought my first Dell I fell in love with these computers.
Good craftsmanship, etc. But what happens when you decide to take advantage of the customer support telephone number that you paid extra for? Yes, what happens now when we try to reach Dell via their customer support number?
AND HERE IS WHERE THE TRUE ADVENTURE BEGINS.
Yes, yours truly had a problem & tried to call the support number & I found myself amazed to be talking to someone in India half a world away about my computer problem. But do you think this person understood the English language very well? I gave up our conversation after 45 minutes & ended up bringing in someone local to come over to fix my machine.
And a week later I had another problem that this time was a billing dispute. But again, the company had prepared well in advance for my call & others like me by directing me to India.
IT WAS REALLY LIKE LIVING INSIDE A HOMER SIMPSON CARTOON, EXCEPT THIS EXPERIENCE WAS FOR REAL.
Well, if Michael Dell wants to take my money & give it to a foreign country that is his right, but I do wish he would require his employees to learn English. But again this may be part of their strategy by providing poor service so you will not waste their time on the telephone & discouraging you from calling & bothering them in the future.
No more Dell computers for me.
The irony of this is that while writing this article on my Dell Laptop I accidentally dropped my laptop from a height of about 4 feet. And my laptop kept on working suffering no ill effects. But of what value is even a well made product to me or anyone if the company refuses to allow a consumer to call & speak to someone at the company in their native tongue?
Again, no more Dell computers for me.
Daily Reckoning, 1-22-2004
“… while millions of Chinese and Indians stand in line to do their jobs at 1/10th the price. Each year, about 1% of the entire value of America passes to foreign owners. And yet, Americans dreamily imagine that they have some special talent... a gift from God himself perhaps... that gives them the right to progress without saving, prosperity without capital investment, and wages 1,000% above the global bid.”
Any recommendations from readers on a computer company that hires employees who speak good ole’ English??? Please forward the info.
And this is just one story & personal experience on why our country is going down the tubes. Here a company that spends years developing a good product & all that effort becomes wasted over night as they let their support mechanism deteriorate by saving a few bucks by employing folks in another country who don’t understand the Queen’s English!
Listen to the following article which sums up the point I am trying to get across about the significance of shifting local jobs overseas.
“USA shifts to lower-paying industries, USA Today, 1-22-2004”
“U.S. jobs being created pay less than those they are replacing, the non-profit Economic Policy Institute said Wednesday. A study found that since November 2001, expanding industries in the USA have paid an average 21% less than contracting industries.”
And the facts above are part of a continuing & growing trend literally guaranteeing that tomorrows children will find fewer & fewer career opportunities in the coming years.
But read the following article.
Estate of McDonald's Heiress to Donate $1.5 Billion to Salvation Army
Let’s read the winning essay Herb wrote.
“As a voluntary missionary, I realized many years ago, that my investments had to have real value, liquidity, and an ability to have substantial growth potential. Only gold (and silver) met those criteria. Mining stocks were a way to leverage that investment. The combination, a knockout punch for the future.” Herb Haines
Why did we pick such a short & really very dry & dull essay as the winner? It surely lacked pizzazz & it really just did not have any “chutzpa” did it? But we picked it for the messages’ very simplicity.
What the writer first conveys in his simple statement is that gold is first & foremost a TOOL for accomplishing a simple end. While we can make lots of money off of gold during a gold bull market I like to always remember that wealth is not a means in itself, but it should always be first & foremost simply a TOOL to accomplish more important tasks.
We talked about in this article an act created by American companies that is leading to this country’s deteriorating standard of living. Contribute to us in 50 words or less the one act you personally believe is doing the most to destroy the good ole’ US of A.
AGAIN, EMAIL US & IN 50 WORDS OR LESS TELL US IN YOUR OWN PERSONAL WORDS THE ONE ACT YOU PERSONALLY BELIEVE CORPORATE AMERICA IS DOING THAT IS CONTRIBUTING THE MOST TO AN EVENTUAL LOWER STANDARD OF LIVING FOR OUR CHILDREN.
If your essay is selected then you will win the ¼ ounce gold coin.
Subscribe to Gold Letter Alert!
Again, why do we follow the gold mining stocks?
“IF YOU CAN FIND THE COMBINATION OF A REASONABLY VALUED MID-CAP OR SMALL-CAP COMPANY WITH AN INTERESTING ORE BODY THAT IS IN A GROWTH PHASE, YOU ARE GOING TO MAKE AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT ON YOUR MONEY.” JOHN EMBRY, SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT
Making money is usually centered around averaging & not merely striking it rich on one lucky win. Do not make the mistake of looking at this gold market as a horse race where it is necessary to pick the one winning horse. There are many good companies out there that will & have found good properties that they are working to develop or to sell to a larger miner.
Simply put, our goal is to review many different new & promising projects & not merely talk over & over & over about the same old previously covered gold plays.
As we talk about gold & making money it is always a good idea to keep things in perspective. In a 100 years from now that shiny gold coin you bought today will still have its lovely yellow luster, but what about your luster?
Prioritize your life's goals.
And what do we believe in on the other side of your computer?
AT GOLD LETTER WE BELIEVE IN GOD, FAMILY & COUNTRY.
January 23, 2004
Systematically Accumulate Gold
Nickolai Kondratieff (1892-1938) was a Russian economist, one of the leading economists during the 1920’s. Kondratieff's major premise was that capitalist economies run through a long cycle of expansion and then contraction, with a cycle that is approximately 53 years in length.
Kondratieff identified four distinct phases the economy goes through. They are a period of inflationary growth, followed by stagflation, then deflationary growth and finally depression. They have also been identified by seasons: Spring (inflationary growth, expansion), summer (stagflation, recession), autumn (deflationary growth, plateau) and winter (depression).
So, are we about to encounter the “Kondratieff Winter?” See what Richard Russell has to say:
Question -- I keep hearing about the so-called “Kondratieff” Winter that's supposed to be coming in. What's that all about?
Answer -- Nikolai Kondratieff (1892 to 1938) was a Russian economist who developed a theory about repetitive cycles of inflation and deflation. . Kondratieff saw four seasons in the world economy much as there are four seasons in nature.
To make a very long story short, Kondratieff followers believe we are now in the “Autumn” season, in which debt is still building, with “winter” dead ahead. The Kondratieff Winter will see the massive debt of the U.S. and the rest of the world literally wiped out during a severe depression. One of the experts on Kondratieff is Ian Gordon of Canada (“The Long Wave Analyst”), and I believe . . . Bob Prechter (“Elliott Wave”) also subscribes pretty much to the broad Kondratieff concept.
Question -- If the so-called “Kondratieff Winter” does materialize, where should an investor be?
Answer -- My answer would be gold and cash. As far as the cash is concerned, that's a problem because today you have to decide which cash (currency) to be in. Right now I'd say you should be mostly in euros, but since I know most subscribers won't do this, I'd say that you should at least “get your feet wet” with a portion of euros.
Question -- Is there a periodicity or cycle connected with Kondratieff?
Answer -- The lows of the cycle or the “winters” have occurred in 1789, 1844, 1896, and 1949. Those are separated by about 52-54 years each. Adding 54 years to 1949 brings us to 2003.
This is very interesting because we are in a primary bear market that began in 1999-2000, and on this basis we should be scraping off the bottom of the Kondratieff “Winter.” However, the Fed has decided to fight the primary bear forces “tooth and nail” as I predicted it would when the primary bear market first began.
Ironically, the Fed's action has resulted in a further massive build-up of debt -- in fact the greatest build-up of debt in US history. . . it now takes eight units of debt (credit) to produce just one unit of GDP. The estimate is that the US as a whole is now carrying $34 trillion of debt with liabilities of $44 trillion coming up over the next decade.
This incredible mountain of debt, in my opinion, will give way to a crushing wipe-out of debt as the bear market finally takes hold. This will occur despite any and all of the efforts and machinations of the Fed. . .
Every nation is now indulging in competitive devaluations. This is generating a huge global increase in paper currency creation. To protect ourselves against this inflation, we must be in tangibles. This means gold, silver, diamonds, works of art, real estate, commodities. We should also be in some non-dollar currencies.
At some point the global inflationary/debt edifice is going to topple over -- and crash. This will produce world deflation. At that time we will have to be in gold and some cash. That's the future as I see it. Everything else is of secondary consideration or “beside the point.”
As an aside, I sense that gold is being quietly and systematically accumulated by sophisticated and knowledgeable investors around the world. This accumulation is keeping gold above the 400 level and in the 400-430 band. That's the way gold is trading.
At some point ahead, all the 400 to 430 gold will be taken off the market. Then we will see gold move up to the 430 to 450 band. I don't know when this will happen, but if I had to guess I'd guess it will happen this year.
In the meantime, we will see periodic sell-offs in gold and gold shares as late-comers and amateur speculators attempt to “beat the market” and scalp a few points off gold or gold stocks. This is not, in my opinion, the way to deal with gold at this time. Gold should not be traded, it should be accumulated up to a set proportion of your assets and held.
Recall from last week that the PVE Gold Index consists of the GDP-weighted gold price in thirty-six countries, including the United States. Since nine of the countries in the index use the euro, twenty-eight currencies are represented. For convenience, I copied last week’s chart below; let’s see what we can glean from it.
The PVE Gold Index gives us an idea of how the average gold price in the world is changing. When the gold price in any given currency deviates from the PVE Gold Index it implies a change in the exchange rate of that currency with respect to the other currencies in the index.
We can therefore see that the US dollar exchange rate was relatively stable from January 1990 to the middle of 1992, when the dollar started to strengthen. We know the dollar strengthened because the gold price, in dollars, started to drop below the PVE Gold Index indicating that the dollar’s purchasing power was increasing. But why did the dollar strengthen?
In 1992 the Brazilian real collapsed and capital in search of safety made its way, mainly, to the United States. The real was devalued to practically nothing; it was replaced by the new real on July 1, 1994. As a result of the Brazilian currency crisis the demand for US dollars soaked up US currency that would otherwise have been used for settlement of international trade. The dollar, therefore, increased not only against the real, but against many other currencies as well. Between 1992 and 1994 the dollar increased by about ten percent against the other currencies in the PVE Gold Index.
This increase in the dollar’s exchange rate on foreign currency markets is represented in the chart above by the decline in the US dollar gold price relative to the PVE Gold Index that started in 1992.
The Brazilian real crisis was hardly behind us when, in 1995, the Mexican peso dropped more than fifty percent against the dollar. This was the worst financial crisis in Mexico since the Mexican Revolution. More capital flowed into the United States, competing for dollars on foreign exchange markets and keeping the dollar strong.
Between 1995 and 1996 the Japanese yen lost about twenty-five percent against the dollar. More demand for dollars meant that the dollar continued to strengthen on foreign currency markets, further increasing the gap between the average, worldwide gold price and the US dollar-gold price. Japan set the stage for the big one, the Southeast Asian currency crisis.
Between 1996 and 1997, the Indonesian rupiah dropped seventy-six percent; the South Korean won fell fifty-six percent and both the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso lost forty percent of their value against the dollar. This was a financial catastrophe and its effect was felt across the globe. Since the US dollar was performing well on foreign currency markets, thanks to the Brazilian, Mexican and Japanese devaluations earlier in the decade, a tidal wave of capital made its way to the United States.
Still shaken from the events of 1996 and 1997, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt in 1998, sending the ruble down seventy percent in just one year. In conjunction with the Southeast Asian crisis the mood is grim, and international capital pours into the US seeking refuge.
The increase in the US dollar following the Southeast Asian currency crisis crushed the US dollar-gold price and was large enough to be evident in the PVE Gold Index. The US dollar represents twenty-eight percent of the Index and contributed to the Index’ decrease of more than twenty percent during 1996 and 1997. As you can see though, the US dollar-gold price declined much more and for much longer.
When the euro was launched in January 1999 it collapsed almost twenty-five percent, on average (PVE Euro Index), and about thirty-five percent against the dollar. As if this was not enough, the Argentine peso had trouble in 1998; in 2000 it was the Turkish lira and in 2002 it was back to Brazil for another round.
As an aside, all the currency devaluations mentioned are examples of how the dollar’s exchange rate affects the US dollar-gold price. Even though the world is currently fascinated by the euro’s exchange rate as a leading indicator for the US dollar gold price we cannot ignore the impact of other currencies. Collectively, they could be more important.
The compounding effect of capital flight during all these currency crises can be seen in the increasing deviation between the US dollar gold price and the PVE Gold Index. The index is currently more than sixty percent higher than it was in 1990 while the US dollar-gold price has only recently recovered to its January 1990 level.
The dollar’s strength stemmed from the weakness in other currencies. It had very little to do with America’s productivity, or a “New Era”. Because most major currencies in the world had already devalued against the dollar it was obvious that the dollar could not continue to increase indefinitely. A PVE Dollar Index, using the same GDP-weighted currency data as for the PVE Gold Index, shows that the US dollar gained 112% from January 1990 to February 2002 (its peak) and has since declined by fourteen percent.
We have seen that the decline in the US dollar-gold price, and its under-performance relative to the rest of the world, is a reflection of the US dollar’s exchange rate. It is my belief that the US dollar gold price will again catch up with the PVE Gold Index as a result of continued weakness in the dollar to correct America’s enormous trade deficit. This correction of the dollar has only just begun and is likely to increase the US dollar-gold price by approximately thirty-five to forty percent more than the concurrent average increase in the gold price in other currencies.
Paul van Eeden
Paul van Eeden works primarily to find investments for his own portfolio and shares his investment ideas with subscribers to his weekly investment publication. For more information please visit his website (www.paulvaneeden.com) or contact his publisher at (800) 528-0559 or (602) 252-4477.
This article expresses the opinion and views of Paul van Eeden. While every attempt is made to ensure the accuracy of information presented, nothing can be guaranteed. Paul van Eeden does not accept responsibility for any errors or omissions.
|GOLD - Das macht richtig Spaß!|
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|GOLD - Plan a) läuft! |
GOLD: 411,5 US $
Aktueller Tageschart (log) seit September 2003. (1 Kerze = 1 Tag)
Kurzupdate: Scenario a) greift! Auf dem Key Support bei 404-405,89 $ ist Gold in dieser Woche nach oben abgeprallt. Indikatorentechnisch sieht man sehr gut, wie sich der stark überkaufte Zustand abgebaut hat. Beispielsweise MACD und RSI haben bereits wieder kurzfristig bullishe Set Ups ausgebildet.
Nächstes kurzfristiges Ziel kommende Woche bei 420-421 $. Anschließend dürfte GOLD weiter nach oben durchstarten, neue Highs ausbilden und unser 480er Kursziel ansteuern.
S. ausführliche Vorgängermeldung.