Questions and Answers
Robert Spingarn, Credit Suisse - Analyst [2]
John, on the cash flow you just mentioned on C Series for the remainder of the year, you've now gone from an R&D phase into a production phase. Could you give us a little more detail on how many aircraft are in production and what the flow looks like? That way we can track how the cash usage differs from R&D to production.
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [3]
Yes, we've talked about our ramp rates if you recall. We're going to kind of square ourself in the year around 12, 15 aircraft in the year and we'll see where that lands. We're tracking actually very well with respect to the ramping of the C Series and as you know, the aircraft is performing very well. So, we expect double that rate or so next year. I'm trying to size up how you want to kind of calibrate the question here.
Robert Spingarn, Credit Suisse - Analyst [4]
What I'm thinking about is how many aircraft are in production now? What are you thinking in terms of Q3 deliveries versus Q4 and essentially the cash flow associated with those aircraft again Q3 versus Q4? In other words, are there major changes in how you burn cash on C Series now that you're only producing aircraft?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [5]
So, I'll give you some data and then maybe you can work a little bit of this out. But we are about $0.5 billion through on the first six months of the year and we have largely now put behind us all the certification work. As you know, we've done that with the CS300. So, development behind us. We got about $0.5 billion to go, that's consistent with the $1 billion that we had given you guys in terms of full-year usage. No changes with respect to the $1 billion, we're tracking well. And that will get us, like I said, probably a dozen or so aircraft this year and then it will size us up for call it 30 to 40 aircraft next year. We'll land that number as we get closer to the back end, but 30 to 40 aircraft next year. The rate by the time you get into Q4 of 2016 will look a lot like the rate that you're going to get for the four quarters of 2017. And so that's more or less the story that we go really from a [soft] kind of Q2, we got one aircraft out; we'll kind of be at midpoint between 1 and 8 or 10 in Q4. So, think of whatever that might be; two, three, four aircraft in Q3 that will come out.
Cameron Doerksen, National Bank Financial - Analyst [7]
A question on the business jet market. One of the comments you made in the prepared remarks was just with regards to Learjet and you're quote unquote addressing your position there. Can you describe what you mean by that? Is that a signal that you may exit that market altogether?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [8]
It's Alain. What we're seeing is less significant softness in the smaller size business aircraft. And the Lear 75 sales were pretty soft in Q1, much better in Q2. It's a very competitive segment of the market so there's significant pricing pressure. And what we meant by that is we're going to continue monitoring this and making sure that we keep on pushing sales and then we'll see where it goes.
Cameron Doerksen, National Bank Financial - Analyst [9]
Okay. So if you see a risk to a lower production rate for business jets in totality, it's probably more on the Lear jet side, less so on Global and Challenger?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [10]
Absolutely. That is very clear, yes.
Turan Quettawala, Scotia Bank - Analyst [12]
Maybe you can talk a little bit about the Global 8000 as well, you've spoken about a potential cancellation or maybe some relooking at that program as well. Can you talk about when that decision has to be made and does it change CapEx a lot and would there be any charges associated with that?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [13]
It's Alain. We never talked about canceling the 8000, unfortunately some journalist did. And right now what we have been saying is we are focused on the Global 7000, that's what the team is focused on. When I joined the organization, we put significant and clear priority on our new program development. We stopped the Lear 85, we set all hands on deck on the C Series and we just did that. We have the CS100 certified, we have the CS300 now certified, and now it's all hands on deck on the Global 7000. And once we are far advanced with that, we will see what we do.
Turan Quettawala, Scotia Bank - Analyst [14]
So, the decision if there is one to be made I guess comes maybe in 2017 then?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [15]
We will see when we get there when we're ready for this. Right now the only thing that we are focused on is to make the Global 7000 a huge success by optimizing performance of the aircraft, which is going to be an amazing aircraft in the marketplace, the best ultra-long range business jet available. And once we're far advanced and we understand the performance of this aircraft, then we'll decide what we do with the Global 8000.
Ron Epstein, Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Analyst [17]
So, quick question for you on the Globals. The Globals you have in production right now, how many of those are in backlog? That's to say are you guys building any white tails? And then two, what is your visibility on demand of the Globals when you look out over let's say the next 12 to 18 months?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [18]
As you know, we have resized our production rates significantly last year and we're in the range of about 50-ish Global a year. We feel pretty good about that. So far so good, we're tracking well in the first half. Even if you look at our book-to-bill ratio in the first half between the medium size and the large business aircraft, we're at 1. So, kind of a good place to be. So moving forward, I think that right now it looks like this is kind of the right level of production volume given the current market demand. So, we might have to do a bit of fine-tuning up or down, but we believe we're in the right zone. So, that's pretty much kind of it on the Global.
Ron Epstein, Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Analyst [19]
So, just as a follow on quickly. That would be you did 28 airplanes in the first half so if you were to annualize that, that puts you at 56 which is higher than 50, right? I mean it's in the 50s, is that the right way to think about it or not?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [20]
Yes, it is, absolutely.
Ron Epstein, Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Analyst [21]
Okay. And then just changing gears quickly. In the post Brexit world that we're in now, what impact have you seen, if any maybe not at all, on the transportation business in Europe? Has there been anything? Have you seen any slowdown in orders, more conservativism from governments in Europe or not? So, what impact has that had?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [22]
We haven't seen anything, Ron, to be honest with you maybe because it's too early or maybe because people don't know. But the fact is there's ongoing projects there and nothing has changed. So, so far it's pretty much like business as usual.
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [23]
And generally speaking, we think that the second half in terms of order or campaigns is going to be probably a little bit more active than the first half and nothing has led us to believe different at this point and to watch that, but still seems like a good environment.
Benoit Poirier, Desjardins Capital Market - Analyst [25]
Congratulations for the progress made so far. Just looking at the C Series and related to the announcement with Ilyushin, just wondering whether there's any potential charges associated with that and any other customers at risk of reaching a similar agreement, especially talking about Republic Air?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [26]
No charges associated with IFC and we just continue to work with our customers. They had their own requirements and we worked something out that also benefits our Q400 program so I think from that point of view, good settlement going forward. With respect to the remainder of the order book, I think we've improved the quality quite a bit here with Air Canada, with Delta, and we continue to have good momentum with sales campaigns. With respect to some of the obvious questions that lie out there with Republic, we continue to work with them. So, I won't speculate now on my plan and no charges that I anticipate relative to those kind of adjustments.
Benoit Poirier, Desjardins Capital Market - Analyst [27]
Okay. And then quickly, any progress on your strategy of reducing your costs on the Q400 and maybe if you could highlight the bidding opportunities for the prop going forward?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [28]
The team has been working pretty hard in taking the cost down so we're making progress. There's more to do. It's a very competitive segment of the market as well, but we have the best aircraft out there. So, the pipeline is pretty rich when it comes to campaigns on the Turboprops and it's pretty much global as well. So, we are confident on the sales side. But for this to be successful and for us to be able to land additional orders, we need to keep on working the aircraft. So, the strategy is clear and we're just executing on it.
Seth Seifman, JPMorgan - Analyst [30]
I wonder if you could talk going forward about the CapEx or investment profile for Global 7000. It's been very steady over the past year or so in terms of what you've been spending every quarter, does that change significantly as we move into flight testing next year?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [31]
As you said, we're steady as she goes for the last two years here and we gave you a little bit of color about what we thought it would be for the full year so more or less what we did last year. I think as you look to 2017, and we'll probably have more time to talk about this when we give you guys some color on guidance later this year, but we do expect next year to be a higher spend year with respect to Global 7000 CapEx. At the same time, we do expect to see the C Series much lower. So, bottom line is that we think that we'll have a trend on investments in product and development that is continuing to deplete. So from the peak in 2015, down this year, and probably down a little bit more next year; Global 7000 kind of up a little bit and C Series down.
Seth Seifman, JPMorgan - Analyst [32]
Okay. And as a follow-up, can you just remind us? There was the special item for the pension in the quarter on the P&L, but from a cash perspective in terms of contributions this year and what the profile is going forward for the pension plan?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [33]
So, we continue to have some small improvements in terms of cash usage on the pension plan. The $139 million that we mentioned is obviously non-cash. We've done a really good job with asset returns and generally speaking I think we have a positive trend over the last couple of years of about probably $30 million positive this year and it will probably be the same next year about $30 million of improved cash flow.
Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets - Analyst [35]
So, coming back on the business jet. When I look at your guidance for revenue and margin for the full year and then backing out what you've done in the first half, I guess which comes back to Cameron's question, you're trending above or it seems like if you take in the seasonality of the fourth quarter from prior years, it looks like you're expecting in fact none of that seasonality to come in and the margins given your margin run rate right now would have to drop down to 5.5% or somewhere thereabouts in order to meet that full-year guidance, which implies that there's something happening in the back half that suggests that we're not going to get to those numbers that something will be quite negative. So, I'm just curious. What level do you see as sustainable for the Learjets that you have in production to keep this program in place? Is there some kind of run rate that you have as a benchmark that you want to look forward to and unless that's there, you look to see what you do with that program?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [36]
So, just make sure I get the question right here. You're specific to BBA in terms of first half to second half?
Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets - Analyst [37]
That's right.
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [38]
Okay. So from our first half performance, about $185 million of EBIT. We guided to roughly 6% margins on equal or more than $5 billion of sales. If you do some quick math there, you come in somewhere around $300 million so that suggests about $150 million in the second half. I think we had a strong first half in terms of mix and that helps. We also had some good service revenues in the total revenue mix, that's helpful. So when you look at second half in terms of Lear, that'll be a bigger number than the first half and when you kind of throw that in, it does reduce a little bit of the operating margin. That being said, I think we'll still be 6% plus for the year. The team's doing well in terms of taking out cost and just being sized to this market. So expectations, that's why if you listen to my comments at the start of the year I kind of said hey, we're still calling the range two to four, we'll tend to feel better above the upper end of the range and that's part of the performance. The guys are doing a good job of selling aircraft, being sized to the market, taking out cost, and so it's giving us a path to the upper end of that range and that's what that reflects.
Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets - Analyst [39]
I guess what my question was you're delivering about 30-plus of these a year of the Lear 70s, Lear 75s and now you're kind of half that rate. And I'm just wondering what level is it where you see as a sustainable rate before you'd have to make some decisions about that line?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [40]
It's tough to make that call right now. I think we're focused on selling planes in the second half. It's a competitive environment and we're going to go out there and make sure we balance market share with pricing and then we make the right decisions with respect to production rates. So, I think that for now the focus is on selling planes, we'll see where we are. But 20, 25 aircraft is kind of a decent sized program if we kept at that level as well and we'll look at 2017 in the fall.
Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets - Analyst [41]
Okay. And then still on that Lear, I mean you had a big charge to the Lear 85 and you're starting to reverse some of that charges through your adjustments now. Do you just look at this every quarter and then ratchet down? In other words, what is the propensity we might have some more reversals on the charge you took on the Lear 85 in the future?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [42]
Just to be clear on that, we were talking about years we had some unwinding cost so it's a matter of not so much re-estimating as it is about actualizing our wind-down. And we're just very focused on making sure we're disciplined on how we wind down the program and that reflects all kinds of arrangements we had including supply chain. And so we're just disciplined on how we are doing that and that's the benefit of the team's work in the last three months or so.
Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets - Analyst [43]
Okay, And just housekeeping, are you still at negative $550 million for BCA for the year on EBIT?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [44]
Yes. And you saw the comment there, I guess we're ramping up and think about that Q4 looking a lot like what 2017 is going to look like in terms of a rate. So, that's all about bringing in inventory and supply chain. There's a little bit of variability with that. We remain conservative and we're driving that ramp so we want to see the production rate intensifying. And at this point in time, the $550 million stands and we'll give you more color in Q3 when we are a little bit clos
Cai von Rumohr, Cowen & Company - Analyst [46]
Good performance, guys. So, your working capital was good performance with the exception of white tails which were up some $44 million to $315 million, they had been trending down. Could you comment what programs were going up on the white tails?
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [47]
With respect to stress of working capital, really you've seen the first half with respect to Lear so we have a little bit of pressure there. I'd say that if there's anything, it's there; the rest of it because honestly there's not a lot of pressure of white tails in the backlog.
Cai von Rumohr, Cowen & Company - Analyst [48]
And then your wing supplier on the Global 7000 has had some issues, could you comment? You've said you still expect to have first flight by the end of this year, but it looks like it's a little bit tied to get to deliveries in the second half of 2018. How comfortable are you that you can make that schedule?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [49]
We're still very confident in our ability to have EIS in the second half of 2018 for the Global 7000. There has been some challenges with Triumph; we're working this together, we're making progress. There is still more work to do. Now the focus is on first flight and we're still targeting first flight in the back half of 2016. So, right now there is absolutely no reason to believe that we are not going to stick on schedule for 2018.
Cai von Rumohr, Cowen & Company - Analyst [50]
Okay. And on the plus side, I mean you have a very large backlog on the Global 7000, presumably also well priced. What's your strategy going to be for kind of ramping production as we think about 2019 and 2020?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [51]
As you said, the backlog on the 7000 is pretty strong. So, the thing is we're working on the production ramp up as we speak actually. This is something we're putting a lot of attention to. There is some work that the team is doing to see how we get the production up as quickly as possible and we are going to try to get up to 50 aircraft a year as quickly as we can. But obviously as with any new program, there will be a ramp and that's what we're trying to assess is how quickly can this ramp be.
Cai von Rumohr, Cowen & Company - Analyst [52]
It would be fair to assume could you get to 50 by 2020
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [53]
We still have a little bit more work to do, Cai, before I answer the question. So, I wouldn't want to mislead you or mislead anybody on this. But I would just say that obviously we're trying to see how we go to rate as quickly as we can because as I said, the backlog is solid.
Cai von Rumohr, Cowen & Company - Analyst [54]
And the last question is, could you update us on the status of your talk with the Canadian federal gov
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [55]
Discussions are still ongoing. As I said before, it's a complex negotiation with the federal and we'll see where it goes. So, we're still engaged on both sides and we're trying to find a win-win solution that would work. So, that's kind of where we are right now.
Gavin Parsons, Goldman Sachs. - Analyst [57
This is Gavin Parsons on for Noah. There have been a lot of airlines announcing kind of deferrals or cutting their growth plans lately amid concerns about market oversupply. I was hoping that on the C Series maybe to the extent that you have this insight, if you give us an idea of how much of your backlog or your current sales campaigns revolve more around fleet replacement rather than fleet growth.
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [58]
I think that it's a mix. Being 100 to 150 seater class aircraft, it clearly addresses a segment of the market that has not been well served for many years. So, clearly there is growth opportunities. At the same time, there's older aircraft that are really aging in that class for which the C Series is a very good replacement. So, I would say what we're seeing is a mix of both. We feel pretty good about the backlog that we have. As John said earlier, we have like marquee airlines in the backlog and our backlog is smaller also relative to other people. So, we're not seeing the same pressure. What we've got in the backlog, we feel good about that and if you look at the options, commitments, letter of intent; we feel that we've got like plenty of juice to work with. So far, so good. We feel that we have really relaunched the C Series and second quarter was really a turning point. Having completed the certification of the CS300, we can really now focus our energies on ramping up production and selling aircraft and the sales team is very active and the sales and marketing pipeline is pretty good right now.
Gavin Parsons, Goldman Sachs. - Analyst [59]
Okay. And then on the business jet market, it seems like over the past couple of years elevated used inventory has been one of biggest problems. Could you comment a bit on whether or not you've seen residual values kind of continue to improve based on your rate adjustments? And then on your comment on near-term market weakness, it looks like secondary market transactions are slowing so whether or not you've actually seen kind of a weakening in demand beyond what has like been an elevated inventory problem for the past couple of year
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [60]
Our used aircraft inventory has come down a lot. We took that head-on last year and we did move a lot of aircraft and the team has done a very very good job. So, we are at a very good level meaning being a low level, we're below $150 million in total right now. So, that portion I feel good about. If you look at the work we did last year in resizing our production rates was exactly what you're saying., We wanted to protect the residual value of the aircraft and if you look at the performance of Bombardier aircraft in the marketplace versus competitors, you will see that the Global have retained our value better than any other brand out there. So, clearly it is working and that was the feedback we're getting from customers who were concerned about value retention and what we have done is protecting the value. And also if you look at how fast we're moving the aircraft that are out there, we're moving them twice as fast as our competitors.
So we've got momentum in the system, we're preserving the value of the aircraft better than anybody else, we believe that our production rate is sized at the right place, like I said earlier we might have to fine-tune it a little bit, but this is exactly that. It won't be more than this. In term of what we're seeing clearly on a global scale, there is softness. There's softness in Russia, in Middle East, and China; the US and Europe are okay. But there's not one market that is striving right now. So, we have to keep monitoring the overall market demand. I think that we are in a low part of the cycle and that this will come back. But for the time being, we feel that we've taken the right decision over the past 12 months to manage this low part of the cycle. And moving forward, we are working on the Global 7000, Global 8000, which is going to drive future growth.
Tim James, TD Securities - Analyst [62]
Just wondering if you could comment on any changes you may be seeing in terms of the drivers of reaching your 2020 objective of an 8% EBIT margin in Transportation. I'm thinking in particular of whether the drag or benefit, I actually believe it's a drag, as identified in the Investor Day presentation from the competitive environment may be greater or weaker than expected or any other influences that are notable such as revenue conversion in terms of getting to that 8% objective.
John Di Bert, Bombardier Inc. - SVP & CFO [63]
This is John. So in terms of BT and the 2020 objective, I think we see a clear line of sight there. Obviously it's a few years out, but we are making good progress with respect to cost reduction. That's the focus of the team. I think there's lots of synergy and productivity to be generated out of BT and Laurent is fully focused there and he has been for the first six months. With respect to our performance so far this year, you see that we're tracking to the expectations we set out there. Significant improvement year-over-year when you look at where we are at midpoint and I'd say that we expect that to continue with respect to margin expansion.
In terms of competitive environment, absolutely all of our segments are in competitive markets. Our focus here is on we deliver great products, we have great technology, and ultimately we also are driving cost structure so we can make sure that we are very competitive in the market. And I think that when you look at our some $30 billion worth of backlog, that's a lot of revenue to work off of. So including cash discipline and good working capital management, we still see financial performance tracking towards midpoint 2018 and then on our way to 2020. But Laurent and the team are certainly focused on being a cost leader as well so driving both technology and cost.
Tim James, TD Securities - Analyst [64]
Okay If I could just add to that and just to kind of summarize. Is the behavior you're seeing from key competitors in transportation kind of lining up with what's factored into that 2020 roadmap?
Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [65]
In the 2020 roadmap we did put some assumption that there would be no pricing pressure in the marketplace. So, we did factor that in. But as John just said, at the same time this is a business that has tremendous opportunity to take us out and that's what Laurent and the team are doing. So, clearly we did a 2020 plan that was or is still as balanced as we could and we are still feeling comfortable with that plan.
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Patrick Ghoche, Bombardier Inc. - VP, IR [66]
Stephen Trent, Citigroup Global Markets - Analyst [68]
Most of my questions answered at this point. But I'm curious on C Series order campaigns, what you're seeing especially on the larger variant in terms of competitive response just thinking back to what transpired with United Airlines earlier this year? Thank you.
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Alain Bellemare, Bombardier Inc. - President & CEO [69]
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I think that what we're seeing is tremendous interest from airlines right now. It is clear that the tone has changed. The airlines are seeing the benefits; it's measurable, it's tangible, the aircraft is flying, feedback from passengers is outstanding. So, the tone of the discussion has changed tremendously. And airlines are recognizing the value of the CS100 and CS300 as being the best aircraft in the 100-seat to 150-seat class from an operating cost standpoint, from a passenger comfort experience standpoint, we have the best environmental performance. So when you put all of this together, we are having very good discussion with potential airline customers. So, obviously you win some, you lose some. I think that it's important to look at what we've done at Delta, what we've done at Air Canada, and the EIS with SWISS is going on very very well. So I feel very good about what we've done, where we are, and the potential for the C Series moving forward.
So in closing, I just want to thank you all for being on the call this morning. Again I am very confident in our strategy, we have a great leadership team, and I believe in our ability to achieve both our 2016 guidance and our 2020 goals. If you look at where we are today; our liquidity position is solid going into the second half of 2016, we are still on track to achieve breakeven cash flow positive by 2018, the team is executing the turnaround plan, and we're delivering on our financial commitments. We have taken some tough actions over the past 12 months to resize some of our production rate and we feel good about that. And if you look at the C series, which was where there was a ton of questions over the past two to three years, I think that we have clearly turned the corner. We have like two aircraft that are now certified and we're moving from a development phase to a revenue generation phase. So, I think that overall Bombardier is in a much better position today than we were a year ago and we will continue to build this Company and make it strong for years to come. So on this, I want to thank you all and I think this is the end of the call. Thank you.